We’ve been touching in this thread on congressional changes based on the new, more favorable climate. I say we can maybe make some headway or keep it the same in the Senate if we make the right moves. We can make modest gains in the house as well.
What do you say? I read a number of your gloomier predictions, but that was pre-Palin and our generic ballot is way better now, even though we haven’t seen many post-Palin polls of congressional races.
As for making gains in the Senate, it’s practically an impossibility. Let’s take a look at them:
**Republican Incumbents:**
Alabama - Richard Shelby - Safe (Liberal Black Dem challenger)
Alaska - Ted Stevens - Vulnerable, Slight D lean (Ethics issues, nearly 85, part of the corrupt establishment Palin defeated in 2006 — ironically Palin may carry him to another term, presuming he is not convicted before the Nov elections. This seat would not be competitive with another Republican running. Dems have first-tier challenger with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich)
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss - Lean R (Dems rejected an Obama moonbat for a more moderate White challenger in the primary, a greater challenger for Chambliss, but he should prevail by 10% or more)
Kansas - Pat Roberts - Lean R (Drew has-been Dem challenger, an ex-Congressman. Initial worries that Roberts was underperforming in the polls I kept this at Lean as opposed to safe R. Probably will be his last term).
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell - Lean R (Drew respectable Dem businessman opponent and ex-Gubernatorial opponent, but despite early indications of vulnerability, McConnell seems to be doing better now)
Maine - Susan Collins - Vulnerable/Slight R (Drew first-tier challenger with Rep. Tom Allen, whom has wearied of being a House member after a decade, but Allen hasn’t made the kind of headway he hoped. He could score an upset, but not likely).
Minnesota - Norm Coleman - Vulnerable/Slight R (MN is still a Dem-leaning state, and even with the world class asshole Al Franken as his opponent, he could still lose. If Ventura had run 3rd party to split the moonbat vote, it might’ve given Coleman some insulation).
Mississippi - Roger Wicker - Vulnerable/Slight R (Wicker is the appointee here and was not the greatest pick to hold Lott’s seat in this special election (my preferences were outgoing Rep. Chip Pickering or ex Lt Gov Amy Tuck. Dems have a first-tier challenger with ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove. Downside to Musgrove ? He’s probably a crook).
New Hampshire - John Sununu - Vulnerable/Slight D (Sununu has been clearly vulnerable since the announcement by ex-Gov. Shaheen to run again for this seat in a rematch. Although Sununu could still win it, he hasn’t sealed the deal. I expect Shaheen to win it narrowly if the equation doesn’t change. Dems haven’t won a Senate seat in NH since an odious special election was called in 1975 when the Senate Dems refused to seat the duly-certified Republican winner in the Nov ‘74 contest)
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole - Vulnerable/Slight R (Dole hasn’t grabbed a substantial command of this seat. Her challenger, Kay Hagan, is really second tier, but has gotten uncomfortably close in the polls, even leading her in some. I expect Dole to win, but by an underwhelming margin. Probably her last term).
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe - Safe R (Inhofe drew a moonbat second-tier opponent, by OK standards, and I expect he’ll be carried to another term on a McCain landslide — where nearly half of OK Dems plan to vote for him)
Oregon - Gordon Smith - Vulnerable/Slight R (Smith faces the problem that OR is a Dem-leaning state and the GOP is in a real trough right now. His saving grace is that he’s facing a second-tier Dem, despite him being the State House Speaker (term limits means they have a high turnover in leadership), with a giggle-inducing name similar to a pubic weave and that of the President in “Dr. Strangelove.” Unfortunately for Smith, even a second-tier Dem is trouble and he actually could be defeated. I expect an uncomfortably close margin of perhaps less than 5%).
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham - Safe R (Our favorite odious creepy RINO after Larry Craig, won renomination after his main competitor was forced out over drug charges, conveniently made AFTER he had already won statewide office. His Dem opponent, Bob Conley, http://aimhighwithbob.com/ , a former Republican, has no money, but is actually running as a Conservative, more so than Graham. Frankly, if I were a SC resident, I’d vote for Conley in protest. Graham is RINO scum who came close to persuading McCain to choose the liberal Lieberman for VP, which would’ve surely cost us the Presidency).
Tennessee - Lamar! Alexander - Safe R (Drew only second-tier opposition with an ex-Dem State Chairman, most people don’t even know whom is running against him. One thing I know, I’ll vote for that RINO after he kisses my Conservative ass. Lamar!, along with fellow RINO Boob Corker, have been embarrassments. He doesn’t need my vote, and he’s not getting it).
Texas - John Cornyn - Lean R (Although his opponent is a second-tier Dem State Rep. with the same name as a former central American dictator (Noriega), he’s not had as commanding a lead as he should, but he’ll win)
Wyoming - 2 Races: (Regular) - Mike Enzi - Safe R; (Special) - John Barrasso - Safe R (Both men face second tier opponents. Barrasso, of course has taken well to the Senate after his appointment by Dem Governor Freudenthal, and attempting to carry on in the tradition of Craig Thomas, his late predecessor)
**Republican Open Seats:**
Colorado - Wayne Allard Vacancy (Bob Schaffer vs. Mark Udall) Dem-leaning (Schaffer hasn’t gotten enough financial support to win the seat, but Udall is a Boulder moonbat, too liberal for Colorado. Still an outside chance of winning, but McCain is supposedly trailing here, which he shouldn’t be. Ultimately, it may end up within a point or two).
Idaho - Wide Stance Vacancy (Jim Risch vs. Larry LaRocco) Safe Republican (Despite worries our favorite toe-tapper might cost us the seat, he stepped aside. Lt Gov Risch is probably the most popular Republican in Idaho and he’s already beaten ex-Congressman LaRocco twice before, including in the past election)
Nebraska - Chuck Hagel Vacancy (Mike Johanns vs. Scott Kleeb) Safe Republican (In some ways, technically a pick-up from erratic and unreliable RINO Hagel. Johanns has a commanding lead over ostensible first-tier, but really second-tier Kleeb who was a prior House candidate).
New Mexico - Pete Domenici Vacancy (Steve Pearce vs. Tom Udall) Lean Dem (Unlike the other Udall cousin in Colorado, Tom has won statewide twice as Attorney General, as did Jeff Bingaman before he won election to the Senate. But the voters are starting to realize Tom may be a little too liberal for NM and they like having a member from both parties for leverage. Pearce was not the choice of Domenici, that was Heather Wilson. Pearce also is not a fan of McCain’s (even better reason to like him), and his people aren’t going out of their way to help him and the national party is holding out, too. At least Pearce has his own money to draw from. Unfortunately, Udall will probably win, but by an unimpressive margin).
Virginia - John Warner Vacancy (Jim Gilmore vs. Mark Warner) Lean Dem (Gilmore should have enough advantages to make this seat competitive, an ex-Governor who won his last race by a wide margin, a first-tier candidate, but he’s registering as if he’s a second-tier nobody with the liberal ex-Gov. Mark Warner beating him by a wide margin. Inexcusable and embarrassing. Gilmore might make up the difference, but unless he can really drop a bomb on Warner, we’ll lose this one. This is the seat most likely to flip to the rodents)
**Democrat Incumbents:**
Arkansas - Mark Pryor - Unopposed (Inexcusable, seat held by GOP until 2003)
Delaware - Joe Biden - Safe (Facing 2nd tier candidate, Biden has never faced a 1st tier candidate in 36 years. If elected VP, the Dem Governor will likely appoint his son, the new State Attorney General, to the vacancy).
Illinois - Dick Durbin - Safe Dem (Faces a nobody RINO challenger, less than useless and utterly embarrassing against this rabid moonbat and moron incumbent)
Iowa - Tom Harkin - Safe Dem (Faces second-tier nobody candidate, our best shot for the seat was Rep. Steve King, but he passed on it)
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu - Vulnerable/Slight D (Recruited first-tier challenger and statewide officeholder with neat name, John Kennedy, but Kennedy may have peaked too soon. He’s yet to claim a solid lead. Unfortunately, the only D seat we’re really challenging)
Massachusetts - John Kerry - Safe D (Aside from Slick Willard, there IS no such thing as a first tier Republican challenger in this state with a dead party. A second-tier candidate, Jeff Beatty, is running. Despite reports of vulnerability on Kerry’s part, he’s more vulnerable in a Dem primary - he hasn’t been renominated yet, election is Tuesday. Despite some FReepers hopes, I don’t think Kerry has to sweat too much, if Beatty gets above 30-35%, I’ll be surprised. There’s simply no party apparatus in the state to even help him out).
Michigan - Carl Levin - Lean D (Levin is slightly underperforming for him, but his challenger is, again, second-tier. He may or may not be held under 60% by Jack Hoogendyk, a State Rep.)
Montana - Max Baucus - Safe D (His “R” challenger is an 85-year old moonbat whom has run as a Green party candidate previously, not even second-tier. Outrageous that Baucus was given a pass).
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg - Lean D (Dick Zimmer was hot $hit in the ‘90s as a Congressman. So much so he scared Bill Bradley out of running for a 4th term in ‘96. He ended up losing in a bad year and attempts to reclaim his House seat failed, too. A decade later and half the state has forgotten him. Zimmer has an outside chance of winning, 2nd to Landrieu’s challenger, but this being NJ, the fix is usually in for the Dem, even for zombies like Frank, who will probably end up with a 10% win)
Rhode Island - Jack Reed - Safe D (One of those Dems we never bother with, despite having ultraliberal records, facing a second to third tier candidate, a former Casino Pit Boss with no money)
South Dakota - Tim Johnson - Safe D (Johnson, whom has absolutely no business running for reelection after his near-death health scare, has drawn only a second tier Republican opponent. Gov. Mike Rounds ought to be running against him. This was the best opportunity for us with the right candidate)
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller - Safe D (Rocky just has to write a check to buy another election in this trending GOP state and he has a plucky, but still second-tier opponent who can’t match a billionaire’s bucks)
**Democrat Open Seats:**
NONE (And this is the only way we make real gains)
As you can see, we have 10 vulnerables (7 incumbents: AK; ME; MN; MS; NH; NC; OR) (3 open: CO, NM, VA).
They have 1, perhaps 2 (LA & NJ). Aside from LA, we don’t have another first-tier challenger against ANY Dem incumbent.
Right now, I expect us to lose probably 4 of them (NH and all 3 opens) and win none of the 2 Dem vulnerables. The best we might do is just lose 2 (NH & VA) and pick up LA for a loss of just 1 (and if Lieberman switches to caucusing with the GOP, which he should if they strip him of his Chairmanship, the loss will be none). McCain might even pick off 1 or 2 Dem Senators from states with GOP Governors and turn the Senate GOP (such as Ben Nelson and one of the ND Senators for Agriculture Sec). Creativity like that will be needed.