I did’t see this blog until now, but I noticed the wacko Gallup internals the last few days....pointed it out to my spouse this morning....basically:
1. In the national polls, the internals show the following:
Preference for General Election by Region
Week of 9/1 to 9/7 2008
Obama McCain
East 51% 40%
Midwest 48% 42%
South 39% 54%
West 50% 43%
Week of 9/8 to 9/14 2008
Obama McCain
East 49% 41%
Midwest 46% 46%
South 39% 54%
West 47% 47%
In the week of 9/8 to 9/14, if the midwest and the west cancel, Obama leads by 8 in the East and McCain leads by 15 in the south. Given that the south holds at least the same or even more electoral votes, shouldn’t McCain be up?
Also, in the ideological breakdown, McCain gained in every category but moderate democrats during the same period, while Obama lost ground:
Week of 9/1 to 9/7 2008
Obama McCain
Liberal Dems 93% 4%
Mod Dems 81% 12%
Cons. Dems 70% 21%
Pure independ. 29% 28%
Liberal/mod Rep. 16% 78%
Conserv. Rep. 3% 94%
Week of 9/8 to 9/14 2008
Obama McCain
Liberal Dems 93% 5% +1
Mod Dems 81% 12% 0
Cons. Dems 66% -4 24% +3
Pure independ. 27% -2 32% +4
Liberal/mod Rep. 10% -6 75% +7
Conserv. Rep. 3% 95% +1
Amazingly, McCain gained percentage points in every category, while Obama lost points, and yet Obama closed the gap with McCain. Something is fishy.
Going one step further, McCain went from +5% to +11% lead over Obama among men, and Obama’s lead among women fell by 2 points.
Moreover, McCain gained ground among White and Hispanic voters:
Week of 9/1 to 9/7 2008
Obama McCain
Non-hispanic white 39% 53%
Non-hispanic black 89% 7%
Hispanic 60% 31%
Week of 9/8 to 9/14 2008
Obama McCain
Non-hispanic white 37% -2 55% +2
Non-hispanic black 93% +4 4% - 3
Hispanic 55% -5 35% +4
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Good post. I have been reading all the nitty gritty in the polls too.
McCain has shored up his base and they ARE motivated because of Palin. This is the first election since 1984 that there is a conservative on the ticket. We have someone to vote against AND someone to vote for.
Obama is losing the Dem base to a tune of 17-19% in about every poll (I’ve seen it higher as well). This will be the unreported story of the election (unless we rub it in their face) that “racist” democrats cost Øbama the election.
McCain is winning his precious Independents, we have all heard for years from dems who say the only rep. for Prez they will vote for is McCain.
McCain will easily win the male vote as we do every election. The female vote which is traditionally Dem will swing in a big way to the Republicans.
I stand by my statements that Øbama has Ø chance of winning in November.
I went to the Gallup site and clicked on the link to the internal results. It says “how the race stands today” or something like that, but the latest figures appear to end at Sept. 14. That’s almost a week ago. During that week they show Obama surging into a lead. I’d like to see those internals updated to say, yesterday. I wonder why they haven’t updated them.
I know those are a ton of numbers, but they are meant to show that McCains support went up in almost every single subsection except African americans, but still lost ground on the overall poll results....huh???
Another gross error in their data is that it looks like they made a MASS calling/weighting to those in the East....look at these numbers from their internals:
Week of 9/8 to 9/14 2008
Obama McCain
East 49% 41%
Midwest 46% 46%
South 39% 54%
West 47% 47%
**************
tied in the west, tied in the midwest...so a wash
up by 15 in the South
down by 8 in the east
so, you would think that he’d probably be somewhere AT LEAST between 6-7 points up on average for the week if the South and East were weighted equally, right??
I added McCain’s numbers for the week of Sept 8th-14th (49+48+48+48+47+47+47=336) and it averaged to 47.78
Then Obama in the same time frame (44+43+44+45+45+45+45=311) and it averaged to 44.42
47.78-44.42 = 3.35 for the week +McCain
this is roughly HALF of what it should be unless Gallup’s “random” calling is calling A LOT more Easterners or weighing their votes more.