[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

>>Why’s that? This poll shows McCain gaining ground on the economy issue last week.<<

Yes, but that’s just one aspect of one poll.

Several polls indicate it’s a tie nationally. That does not make it true that McC is leading in Colo. and NM. Several national polls around Sep. 12 had McC ahead. WRT the national vote count (which indirectly affects the electoral votes), it looks to me like McC lost a little ground.

McC may win NM and Colo in November, but at this point I just don’t see that he is winning in either state.

[jwalsh07]

I never mentioned NM or Co. I simple took issue with your statement that MCCain lost ground because of the economy. I know that's the conventional wisdom but conventional wisdom is often wrong. The Hotline poll has been tracking that issue since they've been polling this cycle. Their data is directly contradictory to your statement. The economy issue has been trending toward McCain though he still lags and it trended toward McCain last week enough that he only lags Obamarxist by a few points now.

It may be counter intuitive to the talking heads but after watching both perform last week I think that's where the American people are at. They trend toward McCain and away from Obama in times of emergency.

[1035rep]

Rasmussen has McCain +2 in New Mexico and +2 in Colorado. SO, looks like he has a better chance of winning than Obama.

[Political Junkie Too]

Several polls indicate it’s a tie nationally. That does not make it true that McC is leading in Colo. and NM.

You have to ask yourself what "leading" means. It means that, over repeated sampling, sometimes he wins and sometimes he loses, but more times than not he wins. That's how I model it, based on specific margins of error (a constant in the case of Rasmussen) for each state. Across 50 states, the wins and losses vary from scenario to scenario, but over repeated simulations a trend emerges. That trend may not track with a national poll, because the responses have to be weighted by the states' electoral college votes.

-PJ