Latest: Dick Morris' 2008 Election Map Shows Big Shift for McCain

Newsmax.com ^ | 9/20/08 | Dick Morris

[DogBarkTree]

There was a gigantic turn toward John McCain in the two weeks immediately after the GOP convention. In large part this was due to the Sarah Palin nomination, and the tremendous miscalculation by the Democrats in attacking Palin — particularly on issues important to women, such as her caring for her children. That backfired massively. The anti-Palin attack by the Democrats showed a cultural disconnect with America that is remarkable.

[princeofdarkness]

I’m with you. I for one am not worried about McCain’s chances. These Ras numbers you cited are a tall order for Obama. Also, the AP article about racism amongst the white Dem voters tells me Obama is going to lose big.

BTW, McCain 62% Obama 38%. AOL Straw Poll 9/16-9/25.

[ColdWater]

McCain is polling better in FL than in VA but DM has McCain only a tossup in FL while firm in VA?

[skimbell]

I know how you feel. It'd disheartening for me to know that 7 million of Chicago's 6 million residents are going to vote for the "Great Eared One" on election day.

[1035rep]

Also, the AP article about racism amongst the white Dem voters tells me Obama is going to lose big.

The Oklahoma poll from Rasmussen not only shows McCain with a huge lead (which was expected) but he has 41% of the Democrat vote. I don't know how much racism is at play but the Democrats are certainly running from Obama.

[Republican Wildcat]

How does he have Iowa leaning McCain? Every poll I’ve seen has Obama not only up, but by double digits.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Tell me again how you decided that McC is ahead in Colo. and NM?

[Political Junkie Too]

Rasmussen has Colorado at McCain 48%, Obama 46%, as of 9/14/08.

Rasmussen has New Mexico at McCain 49%, Obama 47%, as of 9/8/08.

-PJ

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Most recent polls show McC behind in both. I would especially distrust polls that do not reflect the Wall Street mess yet.

[EDINVA]

“more McCain Palin stickers in Fairfax Co VA.”

Yep. Before Palin, I may have seen one, if that. More yard signs going up, too. Still, think the best we can hope for is a split in Fairfax and leave it up to the rest of the state once again to carry the EVs.

[jwalsh07]

Why's that? This poll shows McCain gaining ground on the economy issue last week.

[Political Junkie Too]

That may be, but I'm specifically basing this analysis on Rasmussen, not all or most recent polls.

I could devise a model that incorporates multiple polls, but I don't have the time to keep track of all of them. Simple averages of multiple polls are inaccurate because of margin of error differences between the polls (Rasmussen uses +/- 4.5%). Also, those polls that average other polls are using national polls, not individual state polls, where the Electoral College action is.

When Rasmussen repolls these states, I will adjust my results accordingly.

-PJ

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

>>Why’s that? This poll shows McCain gaining ground on the economy issue last week.<<

Yes, but that’s just one aspect of one poll.

Several polls indicate it’s a tie nationally. That does not make it true that McC is leading in Colo. and NM. Several national polls around Sep. 12 had McC ahead. WRT the national vote count (which indirectly affects the electoral votes), it looks to me like McC lost a little ground.

McC may win NM and Colo in November, but at this point I just don’t see that he is winning in either state.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

>>Simple averages of multiple polls are inaccurate because of margin of error differences between the polls (Rasmussen uses +/- 4.5%). Also, those polls that average other polls are using national polls, not individual state polls, where the Electoral College action is.<<

I thought that RCP takes into account several state polls to determine the electoral status of each state.

[jwalsh07]

I never mentioned NM or Co. I simple took issue with your statement that MCCain lost ground because of the economy. I know that's the conventional wisdom but conventional wisdom is often wrong. The Hotline poll has been tracking that issue since they've been polling this cycle. Their data is directly contradictory to your statement. The economy issue has been trending toward McCain though he still lags and it trended toward McCain last week enough that he only lags Obamarxist by a few points now.

It may be counter intuitive to the talking heads but after watching both perform last week I think that's where the American people are at. They trend toward McCain and away from Obama in times of emergency.

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

If they just split the electoral votes that would happen. Or a good Tsunami would do the trick.

The Bucket Brigade starts here!

[jerry557]

Gallup is an outlier. And their internals confirm why...

Rasmussen is a better guage though he is still counting on a slightly higher Democratic turnout than Republican.

Of course the popular vote is meaningless...we need to be concentrating on states. Rasmussen, even after the McClain economic slide this week, still shows Pennsylvania within 2 points...which is a statistical tie and Scott Rasmussen said that PA is a state that seems to want to stay tied regardless what’s happening out on the trail meaning a lot of people have already made up their minds in that state. It will depend on turnout as to who wins.

[1035rep]

Rasmussen has McCain +2 in New Mexico and +2 in Colorado. SO, looks like he has a better chance of winning than Obama.

[Political Junkie Too]

Maybe they do. I don't know the methodology of how they average multiple polls. I'm doing my own thing, so take it as you please.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Several polls indicate it’s a tie nationally. That does not make it true that McC is leading in Colo. and NM.

You have to ask yourself what "leading" means. It means that, over repeated sampling, sometimes he wins and sometimes he loses, but more times than not he wins. That's how I model it, based on specific margins of error (a constant in the case of Rasmussen) for each state. Across 50 states, the wins and losses vary from scenario to scenario, but over repeated simulations a trend emerges. That trend may not track with a national poll, because the responses have to be weighted by the states' electoral college votes.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Rasmussen is a better guage though he is still counting on a slightly higher Democratic turnout than Republican.

My analysis shows that a 1% shift in poll results from Obama to McCain results in an increase of 25 Electoral Votes for McCain.

-PJ