Posted on 09/23/2008 9:29:44 PM PDT by tlb
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Yup! If you wanna know what the cnadidates polls are showing, watch the candidates. McCain-Palin are laid back, happy, energetic and drawing big crowds. McCain is going to open 50 camapign offices in CA.
Obama bin Biden on the other hand are loud, brash, attacking and downright unhinged at times. Biden has made a complete ass of himself, even condeming Hussiens ad attacking McCain for not being able to use a computer. Obama is pulling of some states and pumping more money in Blue states he should win easily.
I’d say the internals are showing a different story.
In 1980 the polls on election eve showed a tie and even Carter slightly up in some. But Pat Cadell, Carters pollster, told him he was going to lose badly. It was Carters internals that were right. Still the Mainstream media spun it as all the undecides went to Reagan, making him win in a landslide. Yeah, right!
There’s another new poll out tonight by Ipsos, Obama 44, McCain 43, REGISTERED voters.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20080923/pl_mcclatchy/3053371
According to wikipedia (suspect source, I know), approximately 75% of the US adult population is registered to vote. So, how is it that in a “random” poll ABC is able to reach 916 registered voters when contacting only 1082 total voters (85%)? This just isn’t ABC. Almost every poll shows the same unrandom reaching of a higher percentage of registered voters.
the internals of this poll are absolute GARBAGE
10% differential between party affiliations and large over sampling of blacks????? you have got to be kidding!
obama must really be doing poorly for abc to spew this horse crap.
whoever did this poll should be ashamed of themselves and we should call them out.
McCain appeals to a lot of independents and to a healthy percentage of democrats who supported Hillary. These groups are genuinely concerned that McCain threw away his ‘experience’ argument, and a chance to have the ONLY ticket prepared to address the economy. Palin has her attributes, but serious swing voters (who may be crucial) are nervous about McCain’s judgment and his age. With a finance whiz on the ticket McCain can definitely win. It is being whispered that Gov. Palin should do a Harriet Miers for the good of the country.
Because of the internals. That’s why.
It’s easy enough to adjust the samples of Dem, Rep, and Indy and the other demographic breakdowns to something that more accurately reflects reality based on historical voting patterns and current polling data. WAPO did not do that. Intentionally. ABC and WAPO wanted that headline.
Now I am not someone who’s been screaming landslide. And I am one who said Mccain botched his initial response to the economic news and the polls that followed reflected that. I also stated he’d corrected that error and regained some momentum. the polls yesterday and today soon followed and verified that.
Like I said. If WAPO had placed Mccain at 45%-46% I’d probably have let this pass but 42% screams agenda at work. No way McCain draws that with the base on his side.
It's real simple. They ask the pollster to assume a certain division of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, and then weight the poll accordingly. That's what happened here. Anyone with an ounce of knowledge of data from recent Presidential elections can spot right away that this poll way oversampled Democrats and Independents relative to Republicans. Any sample where the spread is more than 4 points (such as the 10 point spread here) should be treated as invalid as not representative of the actual voting population.
Why do they do this? Why, to help Obama! This is not a trick question. They take full advantage of public ignorance regarding polling methodology to create a skewed poll, and then use that poll to drive their headlines. They hope to excite Obama's voters and discourage McCain's voters. They do it in every election cycle, using the same tired trick of oversampling Democrats.
I regard media polls as essentially worthless. I trust the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls precisely because they are not working for a media client with its own invariably leftist political agenda. Not that these two polls are perfect, but they are nonpartisan, upfront with their respective polling methodologies, and seem to care more about being accurate than pleasing one side or the other.
Yup... home of Dopey, Sleepy, Scrooge Mc Duck et al...
enough of this Romney stuff. He was never “all that” on fiscal issues anyway. (examples: health insurance, his success in the Winter Olympics was mainly due to securing federal grants that McCain opposed, support for ethanol subsidies, etc)
Now if you said Mark Sanford...ok that would be something else.
that would kill the whole election, like Eagleton. The base loooooves Palin.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Palin/Sanford, that’s our next ticket. The left has NOTHING that would beat them.
Oh, I'm sure DUers are more than whispering it, they're screaming it from the rooftops. Sarah is all they talk about. The reality is she's the best thing that's happened to this country and the Republican party in a long time.
Good points you make - I am just amazed at all the people on here who buy this. Just look at Rasmussen.. in 2004, the pollsters were all over the map with these games of gyrating polls, and Rasmussen was steady steady steady steady... people are stupid, yes... but millions of people switching from one candidate to another day by day? Nuh uh...
I can see where ABC might want to create the narrative that McCain is walking in the debate “desperate” and in need of a “knockout”
Or, perhaps oversimplifying, reduce the nine point spread by 60%, representing the difference between the 10 point Dem lead in the poll to a 4 point Dem lead reflecting a much more realistic spread based on past election data in Presidential elecitons. This translates to a 3-4 point lead, which is probably much closer to what it actually was during the four days that were polled (9/18-9/21).
mark deserves it...too bad mccain didn’t want him.
What has happened to the GOP. I had respect for all non-religious Republicans, but the rest of you sold out this country financial institutions to a small group of really wealthy people. Gerald Ford is turning over in his grave. And now you down 9 pts to a first term liberal senator from Il. Face it, dubya used the party for his own personal agenda that has ruined the GOP for at least 2 election cycles. I miss the old GOP.
another error here that i have been thinking about...
the over sample here of the black voters runs along the lines of BLACK POPULATION percentage (16-18%) not a traditional breakdown of the voting electorate...
this poll is a laugher....
Actually if you read the internals,it says that the over sample of black votes was not included in the final poll results.
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