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Poll: Economic Discontent Boosts Barack Obama Over John McCain (Obama 52 , McCain 43)
ABC ^ | Sept. 24, 2008 | GARY LANGER

Posted on 09/23/2008 9:29:44 PM PDT by tlb

Democrat Takes 52-43 Lead Among Likely Voters, Erases Republican's Post-Palin Pick Gains

Barack Obama has seized the reins of economic discontent, vaulting over John McCain's convention gains by persuading voters he both better understands their economic troubles and can better address them.

In a head-to-head-match-up he's now supported by 52 percent of likely voters vs. McCain's 43 percent, the first significant advantage for either candidate among likely voters in ABC/Post polls.

Add third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr and it's essentially the same, 51-43 percent.

The contest has shifted from a 49-47 percent McCain-Obama race immediately after the Republican convention.

McCain's bounce -- on individual issues and attributes as well as in overall preference -- is gone.

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; bac; dncmedia; electionpresident; liberalmedia; mccain; mccainpalin; msmdrivebys; obama; polls
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To: tlb

WTF is this? this way off from all the other polls. Did they poll 60% Democrats?


61 posted on 09/23/2008 10:04:29 PM PDT by GeeMoney (Hey Obama, it's God BLESS America!)
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To: goldstategop

Agreed. I don’t think the answer passes the “smell test.” I find it hard to believe voters trust Obama in every category. Something isn’t right here.

_________________

Yes, what “isn’t right” is the POLL, LOL!

What makes anyone think that ABC, being a powerful network that is totally in the tank for Obama in every second of their coverage on radio and TV WOULDN’T commission a biased poll to trumpet their message home?

I see this as a sign of desperation. I’ve read older polls that Obama was WINNING where he was losing by a good margin on the War in Iraq, and International Crisis, etc.

I’m supposed to trust a poll that shows him close and WINNING on these issues? Please, the MSM is trying to CREATE the image of him winning, they are attitude channelling. I look at that polls internals and I find it to be WORTHLESS, since they are 20-30% off on the internals compared to the big pollsters.

The story was written before the “poll” was taken.


62 posted on 09/23/2008 10:04:34 PM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: gswilder
We don't know what the American people really think. What we are told in this poll is what the MSM wants us to believe the American people think. Its not the same thing and we'll have to wait til Nov. 4th to find out.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

63 posted on 09/23/2008 10:04:52 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Embargo
He was repeatedly advised to pick a known finance whiz.

Actually I'd expect McCain/xxx would be down by 10 pts in all surveys by now if he picked somebody else. Palin energized the base more than anybody else. These people are the ones who not only will come to vote but also volunteer for GOTV, poll watchers, etc.

64 posted on 09/23/2008 10:05:05 PM PDT by paudio (Nobody cried 'racism' when Swann, Blackwell, and Steele lost to white guys in 2006)
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To: word_warrior_bob

Does anyone know who does the poll for ABC/WaPo?


65 posted on 09/23/2008 10:05:54 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: FlyVet; All
Republicans (never mind about Chris Dodd, Barack Obama and Barney Frank and their acceptance of BRIBES).

Too bad the Republicans are too weak and cowardly to fight back properly.

Well, if you're willing to join me in doing the fighting back, follow the instructions on this page: http://freedomkeys.com/dems2blame.htm

66 posted on 09/23/2008 10:06:49 PM PDT by FreeKeys (When morons are allowed to vote it becomes cost-effective to invent conspiracy theories they'll buy.)
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To: tlb

Too many Democrats (38%), too few Republicans (28%)in this sample. This is the favorite Jedi mind trick of media polls. In every Presidential election since 1988, neither party had more than a four point advantage over the other party. You can safely disregard any poll with a spread of more than 4 points between Democrats and Republicans. It isn’t scientifically valid because the sample used is not representative of the actual voting population (it contains too many Rats and not enough GOPers).

To put this in perspective, there is evidence in Rasmussen’s tracking poll that Obama polled better on 9/19 and 9/20, while McCain polled slightly better the next two nights. He had the race even this morning.

In Gallup, Obama polled slightly better on 9/19-9/21, but McCain polled even last night. This is among registered voters. Gallup says that its likely voter pool is about 4-5 points more Republican than its registered voter pool (which it uses for its daily tracking). This morning all this translated to a 3 point lead for Obama among registered voters, suggesting that McCain has in fact pulled even or even taken a small lead among likely voters.


67 posted on 09/23/2008 10:07:04 PM PDT by kesg
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To: gswilder

I read that going into the republican convention that the candidates internal polls showed McCain up by double digits. What is right?

_______________

Both campaigns internal polls are the BEST money can buy, they need to know where they stand, not propaganda. Obama pulling out of states, campaigning in traditional blue states and McCain opening 50 offices in California tells you more than ANY poll. No matter if our guy is up by 10 or down by 10. Look at what the campaigns are doing and they will tell you what the polls are. Obama is losing, and not by a small margin.


68 posted on 09/23/2008 10:07:32 PM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: tlb
Bammie is good on ecomonics? ROTFL!!!!

The people living in this country REALLY need to cut down on the recreational drugs.

69 posted on 09/23/2008 10:08:27 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (I'm not voting for his WHITE half either! They're BOTH Marxist!)
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To: word_warrior_bob
No doubt. Its just an opinion poll of the kind Rush warned about and you shouldn't read anything into it. I remember back in 2004, the panic on here with polls showing Kerry was going to win big and I left this forum because it became like DU. I hated it and I loathed Freepers for being overcome with negativism and defeatism. If that happens again, I'll stop posting. We know how that turned out. Let's remember the old adage not to believe everything we see on the TV news or read in the papers. Its mostly designed to sell copy, whether that's airtime or print copy and gain revenue, not to report the truth.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

70 posted on 09/23/2008 10:10:44 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Embargo

“McCain may have been a bit too maverick in his VP choice. He was repeatedly advised to pick a known finance whiz. We’ll see.”

Mitt Romney as VP is looking awfully good right now.


71 posted on 09/23/2008 10:11:07 PM PDT by ClarenceThomasfan (Praise the Lord, we will never have to hear the words "President Hillary Rodham Clinton")
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To: Doogle

ABC, enough said
_______________________
If you lose Halperin, it’s over.


72 posted on 09/23/2008 10:13:22 PM PDT by soupcon
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To: ClarenceThomasfan

Yes, I’m sure Mitt Romney would have had the impact of Sarah Palin. If he picked Romney, Lieberman, or Ridge I would have written in Ronald Reagan, along with a good percentage here.

Mitt Romney was good when he hosted “Love Connections”, he has no business being on a REPUBLICAN national ticket.


73 posted on 09/23/2008 10:14:29 PM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: gswilder

Yes, but the editors in those newsrooms decide which polling firms do their polls and if they like a polling firm that gets them results to help them lead their news with, they’ll use them. They are no different than polls the DNC or the RNC will take to get a desired outcome.

Again, the samples in this poll are crap. The fact that Obama is getting close or higher numbers than McCain in issues that McCain owns by wide margins in other polls should have led the polling director for ABC/Washington Compost to call their pollster and say “this poll is trash and run it again.” But they probably kept this poll so they could make the big news in the morning knowing other polls will be coming out soon. I bet NBC/Wall Street Journal will have their poll out tomorrow because they usually have it out for Thursday’s jouranl. ABC just wants to be a part of the 24 hour newscycle and make a splash with it.


74 posted on 09/23/2008 10:14:53 PM PDT by The South Texan (The Drive By Media is America's worst enemy and American people don't know it.)
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To: Jim Robinson

“Let’s see how many of them sober up or take the trouble to vote though.”

Jim - good point!!! I say, let not our hearts be troubled - for now, anyway.

I still feel pretty optimistic about November. I’ve gotten my best friend to see (since a couple of months ago) just how much can happen in a short time, even week to week. And we’ve still got quite a bit of time between now and then.


75 posted on 09/23/2008 10:15:21 PM PDT by llandres (I'd rather be alive and bankrupt than dead and solvent)
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To: bioprof
38% D, 28% R, the rest Independents....also stated that they “oversampled” blacks to better represent their percentage in the voting population ( I don’t have a clue as to what this means)....

I assume this means that their sample of adults (or registered voters) included more than 12 percent blacks, which would tend to skew the numbers towards Obama.

This is a bad sample. It isn't representative of the people who will actually vote in this election. In every election since 1988, the percentage of Democratic voters never exceeded the percentage of Republican voters by more than 4 points. In 2004, the Democrats did not have an advantage at all. Here, the spread is a whopping 10 points.

Another problem with this poll is that the likely voter numbers were nearly identical to the registered voter numbers -- yet another indication that the sample was overpopulated with Democrats. According to Gallup, the likely voter pool should be about 4-5 points more Republican than the registered voter pool.

76 posted on 09/23/2008 10:16:04 PM PDT by kesg
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To: kesg
Yep. If we correct the bias by pulling up either the number of Republicans or lowering the number of Democrats to a four point spread, Obama's alleged double digit lead among likely voters vanishes. 52 minus 4 is 48 and 43 plus 4 is 47. There's no change in the race! Jedi mind trick indeed because the disparity in the party ID weighing does not matched real world turnout for past presidential elections. ABC/Washington Post should be ashamed of themselves for peddling such an obvious lie but they won't be. Let's not fall for it!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

77 posted on 09/23/2008 10:18:30 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: tlb

Oh give me a break.

42%? No way in Hell. I don’t even have to read the internals and questioning to know this one is worthless. If they want it believable put it at 45%-46%.


78 posted on 09/23/2008 10:19:05 PM PDT by Soul Seeker
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To: All

Excuse me - everyone is yelling “DOOM!” “BIASED POLL!” “MCCAIN IS IN TROUBLE!”

There’s a simpler explanation:

Outlier.

This is just completely at odds with other numbers that were released today. Why does everyone seem to jump on bad numbers like this when it is so at odds with other numbers?


79 posted on 09/23/2008 10:19:27 PM PDT by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99


Birmingham firm strikes Barack Obama presidential coin for the DNC.
80 posted on 09/23/2008 10:24:06 PM PDT by roses of sharon (The MSM vampires must die!)
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