Birmingham firm strikes Barack Obama presidential coin for the DNC.
Excuse me - everyone is yelling “DOOM!” “BIASED POLL!” “MCCAIN IS IN TROUBLE!”
There’s a simpler explanation:
Outlier.
This is just completely at odds with other numbers that were released today. Why does everyone seem to jump on bad numbers like this when it is so at odds with other numbers?
According to wikipedia (suspect source, I know), approximately 75% of the US adult population is registered to vote. So, how is it that in a “random” poll ABC is able to reach 916 registered voters when contacting only 1082 total voters (85%)? This just isn’t ABC. Almost every poll shows the same unrandom reaching of a higher percentage of registered voters.
Because of the internals. That’s why.
It’s easy enough to adjust the samples of Dem, Rep, and Indy and the other demographic breakdowns to something that more accurately reflects reality based on historical voting patterns and current polling data. WAPO did not do that. Intentionally. ABC and WAPO wanted that headline.
Now I am not someone who’s been screaming landslide. And I am one who said Mccain botched his initial response to the economic news and the polls that followed reflected that. I also stated he’d corrected that error and regained some momentum. the polls yesterday and today soon followed and verified that.
Like I said. If WAPO had placed Mccain at 45%-46% I’d probably have let this pass but 42% screams agenda at work. No way McCain draws that with the base on his side.