Posted on 10/13/2008 11:41:15 AM PDT by jveritas
I doubt this. The black vote can turn out as high as it likes, but won't overcome the fact that many white voters in NC and VA simply don't trust 0bama, even if they are Dems and have voted Dem all their life. Despite the claims, even the blacks around here don't seem to be all that enthusiastic about 0bama (one has even told me outright that he doesn't think 0bama is "authentically black"). In my commute, I travel through some solidly black parts of Pittsboro and Sanford, NC and there seems to be an unusually SMALL number of 0bama signs in the yards. Lots of signs for local Dem candidates, but not so many for the Big Zero. As I drove home this evening, I even thought to myself that the number of signs up in these neighbourhoods ought to worry the Dems, not the GOP.
I didnt say it was conservatives. Rather people who are usually not involved are the ones I see showing up
I did read the whole post and you still gave the impression that despite all of those positives, it was possible for IN. to go Obama due to fraud and the student vote.
The reason the crooks want to register ridiculous numbers of people in certain precincts and don't really care if the names are real or not is because they want to bulk up the number of ballots the county will allot to each precinct. That number is determined by how many registered voters of both parties and independents that are present on the final registration date before the election. At least this was the case when here were paper ballots. The higher the percentage of bogus ballots at the start, the higher the number of blank ballots at the end of the day.
A blank ballot is like a blank book- a crook can fill it with anything. A precinct where there are only ballots for real people is going to be harder to fudge. Those real people could show up and if they do and the crook already voted for them then that's going to show up because their name is crossed off. (Unless the crook is the guy who volunteered to cross off names, and crosses off obvious bogus ones each time his repeat voter comes in with his real ID. )
The real voter is going to make a scene if he or she is denied the vote, and a provisional ballot will have to be made, and if the crooks don't own the employees up at the county the extra scrutiny that results from a provisional migh blow up on the fraudulent enterprise. So the crook doesn't want to cross off the name of a real voter he doesn't know, but only the bogus voters' names. Who's going to look once they are crossed off? No one's going to look if so long as there are always fewer votes than alotted ballots.
Fictional voters don't have to show up and announce they are porky pig, but a ballot is allotted them because there is a ballot for each registration that was approved. This is going to be true even of an electronic non-paper machine : "garbage in garbage out."
The difference in real verses fakes is skoosh room. Obviously, a crook wants a lot of skoosh room in as many precincts as he can get away with because there's not going to be another chance to create more voters after the registration deadline has passed. He may not use them all, maybe not even most, but the blank ones are available just in case. Sometimes the crooks go too far as in Indiana and register more fakes than there is population to justify it, thus drawing unwanted attention.
(I think the lib groups like ACORN went overboard because they are afraid.)
If the crook knows the minimum number of fictional names his party or groups planted in the registration process, he knows how many votes can be punched for his candidate and how many names can get scratched off without any conflicts exposing the activity. It can't be done in all precincts because there are a lot of honest pollworkers in both parties who may figure out something's not right. But it can be done in select precincts where oversight is limited or pretty much in one-party machine control.
The Cintons just can't shake those Clinton-Chinagate connections, can they?
I did a lot of calculations cross-referencing early voting turnout in 2004 (in FL, it was Kerry favor 56-39 and ended up going to Bush 52-47, for example) to the fact that blacks are making up 38.6% of the early voters in Georgia (they were about 25% of the total voting electorate in 2004).
After pounding away at percentages, I got the following answer: black turnout is 25% higher. Please don’t ask me to show my math :) Assuming the percentages stay the same, it won’t be a game changer except maybe in VA, so you’re right.
I was in NE Philly during the selection of Pope John Paul's successor, and there was great fear there among the white residents that a Black Pope might be selected.
These folks won't be voting for 0Bama.
I've also spent time in Western PA. You see a spill over of Southern Appalachian culture there, with a lot of Confederate flags.
These folks won't be voting for 0bama either.
A poll on Fox News today indicated that 72% of Independent voters favor smaller government and lower taxes.
I would guess that they would trend toward McCain.
You are skillful. Congratulations on lasting this long. If it was up to me, I would have vaporized your mealy mouthed butt on 10/09/2008.
Continuing the train of calculations:
According to SurveyUSA, Obama is winning early voting in GA 52-46%. Don’t panic, early voter numbers in 2004 were ridiculous as well; again, Kerry led 56-39 in 2004 FL voting and Bush won 52-47 in 2004.
What it tells me is that if blacks consist 39% of the total early votes cast in GA, and Obama is ahead only 52%-46%, then white Democrat vote is very, VERY depressed this year. Of course, this assumes that the SurveyUSA poll is representative at all...
I don’t trust the Survey USA polls. You might find this of interest:
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/10/09/state-poll-accuracy.php
Another unsettling trend I am seeing here in our neighborhood on the NE side of Indy is that OBama signs out number McCain signs 4-5 to 1, and the Bambi signs are often in the same yard as Mitch Daniels(our popular republican gov) and Dan Burton(R) signs which indicate split loyalties and possibly split ticket voting. Our neighborhood is fairly affluent, mostly white, college educated and professional. They are predominately moderate republicans and supporters of our Senator Lugar and Congressman Burton. These are people who were strong supporters of GWB both times and would be expected to be the type of republicans that would be McCainiacs. It's anecdotal, but not something that should be ignored.
I don't think the state as a whole will vote for OBama, we have a lot of bitter church going, gun clingers in the rural areas. However, in my 57 years I haven't seen this level of support for a Dem presidential candidate since "64". I think the main thing will be that if it takes longer than an hour to call IN then that means Bambi is polling well here and that could be indicative of what is going on in other states such as VA, NC, FL, OH, MO, none of which McCain can lose. Historically IN and KY are called within 15-30 minutes after the pools close we are that predictably republican. If that isn't the case this year it may indicate a menacing trend.
I know some one here are ideologues that always see everything through very republican rose colored glasses. I am being more pragmatic. I expect to see McCain win here, but, based on what I am seeing and hearing, I am not willing to rule out the alternative.
Is black turnout 25% higher, or are blacks merely making up a greater relative proportion of those who are early voting, and will make up an equivalently reduced proportion of those voting on Election Day itself?
Intrade is not a predictor of anything, Halverson. For proof, just look at the recent past there. Obama trailed Clinton for a very long time on the trading sites during the primaries, until he took control, and then the site's tracking fell in line afterwards. Same here, the trading site is simply an informal and unscientific poll of its own, which reflects only the current mood of its participants. It chases the polls, but is useless as a predictor.
That's the key about any poll, though - even the best and most accurate can only tell you the present mood, not what will happen in the future.
I would also note, that if the polls suddenly started showing McCain gaining strength, that his numbers on Intrade would also rise. Because many of the people there are just watching the polls, not the issues or analyzing the raw data.
Wonder what the Intrade fanatics on FR think about that?
It’s 25-30% higher after you normalize for the fact that early voting grossly overfavors Democrats. This isn’t a gamechanger except in VA and maybe NC, though.
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