Posted on 10/16/2008 9:52:59 AM PDT by jveritas
In order for Obama to win the elections he needs to have at least 40% of the White Vote. During the 2008 democrat primaries he averaged between 34% to 37% of the white vote.
From the 2004 election data 77% of the voters were white and they voted 58% for President Bush and 41% for John Kerry. Blacks made up 11% of the electorate and voted 88% for Kerry and 11% for President Bush. Hispanics made up 8% of the voters and voted 53% for John Kerry and 44% for President Bush. The remaining 4% voted 55% for John Kerry and 45% for President Bush..
In this model let us assume that the Black voters turn out in 2008 increased to 14% of the total votes (a 27% increase over their turnout in 2004), White voters turnout decreased from 77% to 74%, Hispanics and others remain at the same level as in 2004.
Assumption 1:
White vote: Obama 37% (match his highest average in the democrat primaries), McCain 61%
Black vote: Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Hispanics: Obama 65%, McCain 35%
Others: Obama 55%, McCain 45%
McCain total: 50.44%, Obama total: 48.08%
Assumption 2:
White vote: Obama 40% (almost as Kerry got), McCain 59%
Black vote: Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Hispanics: Obama 65%, McCain 35%
Others: Obama 55%, McCain 45%
Obama total: 50.30%, Obama total: 48.96%
I view with great suspicion polls that indicate African-Americans are going to vote at a 95% - 5% for Barack Obama. Why? Because African - Americans are far more diverse than that, and overlap across too many other predominantly conservative demographics in 2008 America. There is much more disagreement with Democratic Party axioms than that on a wide variety of issues across the spectrum from gay marriage, gun ownership, law and order, abortion, taxation. They serve in disproportionately large numbers in active duty military service, especially in the Army - a bastion of conservative values.
Much is made of the Bradley effect in polling. I submit there is a overwhelmingly greater stigma - by an order or magnitude - against an African-American admitting to a pollster that he/she is voting for the white candidate. I believe it could be much larger than 5%.
Latest TIPP internals show that Obama is getting 59% of the Hispanic vote, six points ahead of Kerry’s 53% in 2004. McCain is getting 29%, about 15 points less than Bush’s 44% in 2004.
The latest set of Gallup weekly internals has Obama getting 60% of the Hispanic vote, as opposed to 31% for McCain.
I guess the key still remains what are the few battleground states going to do?.... National averages don’t necessarily translate from state to state.
Another thing I saw somewhere today was that some 58% of the population 30 years of age and under which are eligible to register to vote have done so. I don’t know if that is an accurate number but if it is and they do vote in sufficient numbers then they can and will sway the election unlike before.
So what does that tell us about Gallup's poll? That they're overestimating the impact of minorities and/or underestimating the impact of white voters. That would be my guess. Thoughts?
My wife told that to me. Not sure what she was getting at.
More precisely, Obama is not outperforming Kerry, but McCain is underperforming Bush. I think McCain will end up winning this vote, maybe 51-48 rather than 52-47 but close enough.
However, black voters in recent election history have been in the 90% range. Many think that percentage will increase due to a half-black candidate on the ticket. I've seen some anecdotal evidence of this (neighbors/colleagues), and the polls have so far shown even greater strength than previous elections. For example, the current Gallup poll I referenced earlier had blacks for Obama 91-3%. Even if every undecided went for McCain (completely unprecedented) we would still end up with 91-9% - consistent with previous elections.
You can argue about that last five percent (from 90-95), but barring a complete implosion over these last three weeks I'd really be stunned if black votes came in under 90% for Obama. I think 91-93% is a reasonable expectation.
Do you have data to support this?
Sorry, ain't buyin' it. With ACORN registrations showing a staggering amount of fraudulent registrations, I'd be hesitant to accept any data on registrations - especially involving the unreliable youth vote.
It’s the Freedom of Choice Act.
Barack Obama recently said, ‘The first thing I’d do as president would be to sign the Freedom of Choice Act,’ This legislation would wipe out all state and federal abortion restrictions including the partial-birth abortion ban.
Obama on the Freedom of choice act
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AR1RD2-fabA
RE: “Unfortunately, minorities are significantly concentrated in the large population centers of the US in states having the highest numbers of electoral votes. While this analysis works in McCain’s favor from a national perspective, it would be interesting to see this same approach applied to some of the battleground states.”
******
EXACTLY! The two coasts, in particular, make a huge difference with their large electoral vote numbers thanks to big populations in some cities. And yes, the far lefties and minorities who will vote en masse for the Zero create this crisis purely because of where they reside.
Exactly! I don't see the black vote at 95% either because a lot of Black Republicans that initially flirted with Obama will NOT vote for him now. Also I don't think he will get that large of Hispanic vote. Castro is helping us with that in Florida.
Thanks and OMG...this guy is just SOOOOO EVIL....has 1/2 of the adult population lost their souls?
One thing Hussein loves more than spending your money is abortion. He loves it, all forms of abortion, early term, late term.....
Nice work. Thanks
He should be know as “Obama the Abortionist” Barry wants to raise your taxes and slaughter babies.
The areas ACORN worked in OKC before they got tossed was black areas. In Ohio in the major cities it is the black areas.
ACORN registers mostly minorities with the large group being black.
RE: “Better: TRUE Americans: 56%. Socialist, liberal, communist, Marxist, Leninism, homosexual slime: 44%”
******
You forgot some of the Zero’s fan base: minorities and deadbeats who think it sounds great to keep on getting something for nothing and want to get even more; whites who are garden variety Dems and will feel guilty for not voting for the half-black guy, not wanting to appear racist, you know.
I think they are underestimating the white votes because if they were honest, it would show Obama losing.
“Sadly I think Obama will get it”
Based on fraud?
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