Posted on 10/16/2008 5:48:56 PM PDT by UCAL
Obama leads McCain in Virginia
(NEWPORT NEWS, VA) – With just under three weeks to go before Election Day, Senator Barack Obama leads Senator John McCain in Virginia by 6.0% among likely voters, 49.2% to 43.2%. Obama’s lead appears to be driven by voter concerns about the economy. Asked to name the top issue that they would like candidates to address between now and Election Day, just over six in ten likely voters say the economy. No other issue breaks double digits. These findings are from the Christopher Newport University Virginia Poll conducted October 11-14 of 500 likely voters.
When asked which would be the second issue that they would like the candidates to address between now and Election Day, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan top the list at 20.4%, followed closely by health care at 18.5% and then the economy, gas prices and energy policy, and terrorism. Fewer than 7% want the candidates to address the personal character and integrity of the candidates, suggesting that voters have not responded well to Senator McCain’s efforts to make Senator Obama’s character and integrity an issue in the final weeks of the election.
Nearly 50% of voters think that Joe Biden is the stronger Vice Presidential candidate, compared to just one in three who say Sarah Palin is the stronger Vice Presidential candidate.
(Excerpt) Read more at universityrelations.cnu.edu ...
One item of interest in the internals. 48.7% of respondents have 4-year college degree or more. I’m pretty sure that’s way too high. Could explain the Sarah Palin responses.
I dont believe it at all
1. There's no NOVA in Tennessee. Think millions of white liberals.
2. Virginia is 20% African American. Tennessee is only 16% African American.
3. Obama has poured about $30 million into Virginia, but spent next to nothing in Tennessee.
4. The Virginia Republican Party is decrepit, and Obama is running on the same ticket as super-popular former Governor Mark Warner.
LOL ya got to turn on CPAN, they are doing the Al Smith Dinner, Just said that I may be a maverick but Messiah is above my pay grade.
Not surprising for McCain to be ahead in TN when it went for Bush twice. It is surprising that some polls show obama farther ahead in VA than in OH. VA went for Bush by 9 in 2004, OH was only 51-49. You’d think it would be harder for a Republican to keep OH since it was a much harder state towin last time.
As I recall, into October of 2004 the Dems thought Kerry had a shot in VA too but he didn’t even come close. I just hope this poll is not accurate. It is difficult to see any scenario for McCain to win without this once great state.
Others have said even if McCain takes VA this time it might be the last time. I’m not so sure. If 0bama is president and screws up as badly as we expect him to, VA is one of many states he will lose in 2012.
What’s even more laughable about this...ahem...poll is that in September, when it showed McCain with a 6% advantage over the chOsen One, it sampled women and men equally, 50%. It also sampled dems at 27%, republicans at 32%.
Lo and behold, now this polling firm believes that men will only make up 42% of VA’s electorate. Yeah right.
http://cpp.cnu.edu/pressreleases/pressreleasespdf/VirginiaPollSept08Release.pdf
Shit in, shit out. This isn’t a poll, it’s worthless piece of pixels.
LOL, who are these guys? Also very timely, I just wrote a post about VA in another thread...there’s no way Obama will win there by 6% without taking the national race by at least 15%, which is approaching Mondale territory. Bush won the state by 8% in 2004 and furthermore, increased his margin from 2004 over 2000. These polls are crap.
I just had a scary thought.
If Obama wins, will the SecDef become, GULP! John Murtha????
Thank God my ETS is 3 Jan. I will not stand for this abuse if the socialists win.
NC always votes Democrat for state gov’t (up to 85% Democrat), yet bizarrely votes Republican for president and occasionally governor.
There is a different breed of Democrat in the NC and VA: The Quasi-Conservative Democrat who is quite different from the Northeast Liberal.
A little history: The Republican Party did not even exist in NC until Jesse Helms brought it in, but there was still a two party system: the Democrats and the Dixiecrats.
Now the Dixiecrats were technically Democrats, but they were the business-oriented Democrats, generally voting republican for President, Governor and one Senator.
The Dixiecrats and their descendents are still very much Democrats by tradition, and for the serious leadership roles they still continue vote Republican (quietly).
So you can have a state with a gov’t that is 85% Democrat that still is Red when it comes to president.
I remember hearing the same thing in 2004, when Bush increased his margin from four years earlier.
Don’t worry, lol... the real polls do not agree. This is a poll taken by college kids.
It wasn’t me and I have an alibi. :)
I am seeing the anger at Kaine’s gross mismanagement of the state budget, and am convinced that VA will swing back to the right.
We have the same kind of idiots in our neighborhood (but, I guess that’s to be expected, given we live just 30 miles west of Chicago).
I used to live next door to Christopher Newport U. It’s not a ranked college by any means. Anyone can get in. I wouldn’t put too much stock in what the profs there have to say.
I used to live next door to Christopher Newport U. It’s not a ranked college by any means. Anyone can get in. I wouldn’t put too much stock in what the profs there have to say.
VA does not register by party affiliation
And it always has. Through its history VA has a far more Democratic tradition than Republican for most races. However, it's been reliably Republican in Presidential races for 44 years. So every four years people talk about how Virginia is turning blue because so-and-so won a gubernatorial or Senate race.
I think it's something like 6 of the last 9 or 7 of the last 10 VA governors have been Dems.
7% think questions of character are important?? Unreal, and scary, if true. Are we really that shallow as a people, or do Americans really not care what kind of people we elect as long as they get what they think is coming to them? Pretty sad. The elites had some nerve saying the Reagan era was a time of greed, or a “me” decade. Looks to me like that is the case NOW, when people will throw away principles to elect a president who is badly flawed because they think he will take care of them. Heaven help us. Maybe I am being too negative and cynical, and things will not turn out this way. But the signs are not good.
You cannot compare a 2004 poll to now. It is important to look only at polls that have two non-incumbents running. Those years were 1968, 1988 and 2000, I believe.
People, deep down, are afraid of change, so unless the President is utterly incompetent, as Jimmy Carter was, or broke a promise to his base, as Bush senior did, they will, last minute, fall back on avoiding change.
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