Posted on 10/17/2008 11:19:16 AM PDT by Chet 99
GALLUP POLL LIKELY VOTERS STAY 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN FOR SECOND DAY...
For those who want more than a selective, superficial Drudgeland ‘take’ on the voting trends, the 49-47 edge is based on the so-called “traditional” analysis of “likely” voters. The more reliable “expanded” analysis shows a much larger edge (51-45) and the standard poll, based on registered voters, shows an even greater edge (50-43) for Obama, with an across-the-board range of 4-7% undecided voters. All rationalizations beyond these findings are of little significance until the state-by-state, electoral college estimates become available.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108196/posts
I did this calculation a few days ago, based on Gallup’s assumption that the additional 5 percent were mostly yoots and minorities. I guessed that they would split roughly 65-35 Obama based on Gallup internals. At that rate, a 5% drop would mean a loss of 1.5% in the national poll numbers for Obama.
The more reliable analysis? Really? Okay, please compare how this more "reliable" method has compared to the traditional method in past elections?
-CRICKETS CHIRPING-
There will definitely be higher than usual black turnout, IMO... but will that be offset by higher white turnout?
And the youth... they’ve been supposed to come out in droves since 1972... never has happened...
Moreover....a poll shows Mac back on top today in FL
This poll is a virtual tie.
Now when you read it, take two things into account:
Gallup skews liberal, both in their sample and in how they ask their questions.
Then there’s the Bradley Effect.
Kingfish effect.. where blacks would vote for a black or even a Halfrican over any white if a black was running for office.. some call it the Planet of Apes effect..
Even more interesting, do these polls take into consideration “Operation Chaos” operatives who crossed over, and are still saying “Democrat?” - maybe just to skew the polls and keep Obamessiah thinking he’s up?
Any guesses how that turns out when he loses?
Professor Hill from Temple Univ. said on O’reily a while back that if Obama wasn’t up by 10% on election day, he didn’t have a chance !! Let’s hope the professor knows of what he speaks.
Grant Park in Atlanta???? If so, that is very, very bad. I’m north of Atlanta but still locked and loaded.
Grant Park, IL
I don’t know where that is, but since I’m a gamblin’ gal, I’ll lay money there will be rioting. Everywhere.
Which poll?
Last week's poll had McCain winning with 54-43%, so NOBAMA's losing votes left and right.
Now that we're getting down to the nitty-gritty, I wonder when the DNC is going to tell them they'd better fix their poll.
“Joe the Plumber Saves the Republic!”
This great Republic was founded by hundreds of thousands of “Joe the Plumbers” setting down their tools and setting aside their lives to fight for independence and freedom.
Joe should be Press Secretary. No kidding. He handles dumba** reporters the proper way.
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