Posted on 10/28/2008 9:05:48 AM PDT by TitansAFC
...800 adults interviewed; of them, 736 were registered to vote; of them, 648 were identified by SurveyUSA as having already voted or as being likely to vote on or before election day. Ohio has 20 electoral votes. George W. Bush carried the state by 4 points in 2000 and by 2 points in 2004...
(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...
And McCain is still within Margin of Error!!!!!! LOL
Ping time!
In the final analysis, I don’t believe seniors are going to vote for Obama — even many Democrats. During the primaries, seniors were his worst demographic - and they vote in disproportionate numbers.
22% of the people they polled already voted.
Of that 22% who already voted, 3% were undecided.
Solid poll.
I took a look at this earlier. The regional breakdown is interesting. They poll 40% from Cleveland region, and 60% from the rest of the state including no respondents from SE Ohio. This is obviously completely wrong, but two important numbers, Obama is losing 24 points in Cincinnati, 10 points in Toledo and breaking even in Columbus.
These are not winning numbers for a Democrat in OH.
NE Ohio has been bleeding population while Cincy/Columbus have been gaining.
Where did you find the internals to this poll?
you will hear things like:
...the leading economic indicators pointed to..
...based on the GOTV voter model we chose to...
...this election was an abberition and we could not have...
...due to a computer glitch...
...the dog ate my formula...
...my beeber was supposed to be set for stune...
...we realized that the indy's we sampled really were plants...
add your own.
LOL!
I saw that, its ridiculous, they deliberately over sampled Bambi’s strong area.
What was the turnout in 2004/2006?
I would suspect that is about right for "likely voters", or real voters come next week, in Ohio. It's a big Union state, I'd actually not be too surprised if there weren't *more" than 45% Democrats in the final turnout.
I’m no mathematician, but I think this poll is useless crap. How many voters who have already cast their ballots did they question? That figure has to be tiny in relation to the total number of “likely voters they questioned.” Then to simply average the two out is laughable.
When McCain talked about his mother going to England and trying to rent a car--they told her she was too old, so she bought a car and drove around at 94! That would be my mom!
Never mind . . . I found it.
Dem 37%
Rep 37%
Ind 26%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/
40% from Cleveland? None from SE Ohio? Absurd. Almost as effective to just ask a dozen people in Akron and call it 100% Obama. This is why polls should be for the most part ignored.
(Although the breaking even in Columbus thing has me smiling.)
My 82 y/o mother did, and although she doesn't live in Ohio, she probalby fits the demographic of Ohio seniors pretty well. Strong Union supporter. Rarely, if ever, voted for a Republican. She didn't like The One, mainly based on race I think, but she voted for him anyway. She did like Biden, so maybe she voted for the team, just as I will vote for Sarah and the McCainiac gets a free ride with me.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Don’t know what the regristration numbers democratic to republican are but the democrats turned out about two to one over the republicans in the primary. If in fact there is a 2 to 1 difference then being within the MOE bodes well for McCain..
Southeast Ohio is solid McCain.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.