Posted on 10/28/2008 9:09:17 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
The early voting numbers in at least five states (OH, CA, CO, FL and TX) are not good for the Obamessiah. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. Life is good, and barring a major October surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.
So, while we need to stay focused on electing McCain/Palin, it's also time to focus on some winnable House races. There are a bunch of vulnerable freshmen Dem representatives in the House, compliments of a lousy 2006. In my view the GOP has just over 20 realistic pick-up opportunities. See my list below. Numbers in parentheses is Bush's percentage (rounded up or down) in that district during 2004. Click on the race to be taken the GOP challenger's website:
AL-05 (60%)
AZ-05 (54%)
AZ-08 (53%)
CA-11 (54%)
FL-16 (54%)
GA-08 (61%)
IL-14 (56%)
KS-02 (59%)
KY-03 (49%)
LA-06 (59%)
MS-01 (62%)
NH-01 (51%)
NH-02 (47%)
NY-20 (53%)
PA-07 (47%)
PA-08 (48%)
PA-10 (60%)
PA-11 (47%)
PA-12 (48%)
TX-22 (64%)
TX-23 (57%)
WI-08 (55%)
Other details on these races (voting percentages, fundraising numbers, etc.) are spread throughout this thread.
The current count is Dems 233, GOP 202. The Pubbies unfortunately do have to defend a lot of seats due to retirement. To retake the House they'd need to basically run the table on defending those seats and win about 16 of those above pick-up opportunities. Possible, but not likely. However, a solid McCain/Palin win in this anti-incumbent environment could provide enough of a push. And even if the GOP cannot retake the House, just cutting into the Dems' current 31-seat lead will be very demoralizing after all their gloating.
If you've been thinking about donating your time and/or money, now's the time.
My former son who voted for Obama nonetheless voted for Fimian! There’s hope down the line.
Good to hear. So far the word is that GOP turnout in the south has been staggering!! Hopefully that includes VA and NC. :-)
Well, it’s pretty safe to say that McCain/Palin are not going to have any type of significant margin to boost GOP House hopes. Heck, they may well not win at all. The electoral map has narrowed considerably now with NH and PA gone.
I thought we were looking good. What’s the deal with Pa?
PA was always a tough battle for McCain/Palin. I was hopeful, but the Keystone State has disappointed me before. I hope they’re able to keep it very close so those half dozen House races are still in play.
It looks like the same map as 2000 and 2004, except that it might be even closer.
Lampson might lose his seat here in Texas, and at least it now looks very unlikely that the Dems will get their filibuster proof Senate. But just damn all the same.
Don't know. They seem to be relying on the exit polls.
What's really annoying is that tomorrow so many will say "The polls were right!"
Well, I realize CA, OR, and WA will increase his margin, but the Obamessiah is running dead even to 1% ahead nationally. A far cry from his 9- or 11-point national leads. The polls weren't right. But they accomplished exactly what they were supposed to.
welcome to the USSA.
Just damn. I guess this really was a historically unprecedented election after all (Obama is going to get to 52, I think), so I was wrong. I hate it when that happens, but I will learn what went wrong and be better prepared next time.
I have to say that I think Rasmussen and TIPP are going to come closest to getting the national vote right. But that seems so trivial right now. I fear for this country. Not only is Obama winning, but the GOP is getting wiped out in the House races again and also taking more losses in the Senate. We are so screwed.
Rasmussen was pretty much on the money all the time, it seems. Another validation of his party ID methodology - it’s probably in D +6/+7 range now. There was too much evidence for the party shift, and it came true at the end. Also, RCP average for state polls looks very close to the real vote, and 538.com model called everything correctly as well.
NBC/WSJ also had pretty consistent polling, and R2000 as well.n TIPP was calling it too close before fudging it at the end.
It took UK Tories 10+ years to reinvent the winning model, hopefully here we can do in 6 or 8.
What you called "doom 'n gloomers" just turned out to be people with a firmer grasp on reality than some others around here. Nobody I know of is thrilled with the Obama win. But maybe next time you'll stop and think before getting up on your arrogant high horse and belittling others who don't inhabit your fantasy world.
You are one of the ones I most had in mind. You constantly belittled people focusing on the positives and working hard for what they believed in, and you dare to accuse me of being on my high horse?!?! What a premier prick! You can be proud that you and others like you played a critical role in Obama’s win.
Questioning the validity of your position is not 'belittling'. You came out making guarantees that flew in the face of all available evidence, quoting your super secret polls and assuming blind hunch to be gospel. And when people tried to inject a little reality into your poste then you attacked them. And in the end you looked like a boob. Deal with it
You can be proud that you and others like you played a critical role in Obama’s win.
A jerk to the end, I see. And an uniformed one at that.
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