Michael Medved: Will the Return of Values Voters Bring Another Election Day Surprise?

The most startling factor in the Presidential election of 2004 could deliver an even bigger shock in the battle for the White House in 2008, if the nation witnesses the possible repeat of the decisive impact of “values voters”.

Four years ago, the media largely ignored the significance of moral and family issues until Election Day exit polls revealed their crucial role in the GOP victory. In the same way, seasoned political observers – especially those who consider an Obama victory a foregone conclusion – have ignored the very real chance that social conservatives may bring about a stunning upset on November 4th.

Four years ago, when asked “what mattered most in deciding how you voted for president,” more voters cited “moral values” than any other factor. According to the authoritative Edison-Mitofsky exit poll, 22% named “moral values” compared to 20% indicating “the economy and jobs,” 19% choosing “terrorism,” 15% “Iraq” and a mere 8% citing “health care.”

Among those who chose “moral values” as their chief concern, a stunning 80% voted for George W. Bush, while his opponent, John Kerry, got a similar 80% show of support from those who primarily worried about “the economy and jobs.” Nearly one quarter of the electorate in 2004 identified as “white evangelical and born-again Christians” and they backed President Bush by a four-to-one margin. Without this overwhelming support from Christian conservatives, Bush could never have won his 51 to 48% victory over Senator Kerry.

Considering the hugely significant role of values voters in the last presidential race, it makes no sense for leading electoral experts to assume that they’ve become suddenly irrelevant in 2008. Did the social conservatives who tipped the scales to Bush and Cheney in a tough race four years ago somehow vanish or give up?

Conventional wisdom suggests that values voters don’t matter this year for several important reasons. First, it’s assumed that social conservatives remain lukewarm on John McCain and won’t give him the huge turnout and overwhelming support that propelled George W. Bush to victory. Second, according to many leading pundits, Barack Obama has neutralized moral issues with his inclusive rhetoric about unity and respect and his comfort in talking about his Christian faith (though not about his long-time pastor, Jeremiah Wright, who has all-but-vanished from media coverage of the campaign). Finally, and most significantly, all major analysts seem to agree that the financial crisis and looming recession have crowded out all other public concerns, leaving little chance that worried voters will once again find themselves “distracted” by social issues like abortion, marriage, or gun rights.

For several reasons, these assumptions may look shaky on Election Day. Yes, it’s true that John McCain has never been a favorite of Christian conservatives (especially after his self-destructive denunciation of Falwell and Robertson in the 2000 primary campaign). But his selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, and renewed attention to his strong pro-life record over the course of 30 years (he gets a perfect “Zero” lifetime rating from Planned Parenthood), have helped to rally the troops. The huge, enthusiastic turnouts at recent GOP rallies (particularly those featuring Governor Palin) and the determined, ongoing efforts by prominent organizations on the religious right suggest that “values voters” may return in force and startle the pundits once again.

Most obviously, Obama efforts at “Christian outreach” have largely failed, recognized as a phony, manipulative and, ultimately, insulting strategy. Obama may claim he understands and sympathizes with the concerns of religious traditionalists, but he’s running on the most pro-abortion platform in major party history (calling for a return to federal funding for abortions for poor women) and he famously suggested that the question of when life begins was “above my pay grade.”Of course, leaders of left-leaning Christian and Jewish denominations enthusiastically back Obama (just as they backed Kerry) but traditionalists remain deeply suspicious. Those concerns go far beyond the silly charges that Obama is some sort of “secret Muslim” and involve his slimy, equivocal treatment of all religious questions, whether involving his boyhood study of the Koran in Indonesia, or his twenty years of loyal discipleship with the America-hating Reverend Wright.

Finally, there’s no reason to assume that universal concern about the state of the economy means that religious conservatives no longer care about the future of marriage or the protection of the unborn.

In fact, a dramatic turnaround in voter sentiment in California (of all places) indicates precisely the sort of mobilization of values voters that could derail the Obama Express on November 4th.

The citizens of the Golden State face a fateful choice in the wake of the State Supreme Court’s controversial 4 to 3 decision to mandate gay marriage. Proposition 8 on the California ballot adds to the State Constitution a provision declaring that “only marriage between a man and a woman is valid and recognized in California.” In one of the most liberal and lopsidedly Democratic states in the union, gay activists felt confident they would defeat this measure by a decisive margin, but recent surveys show an unexpected surge of support for traditional marriage. A Survey USA poll shows a swing of 8 points in the three weeks between September 25th and October 17th, from a 5% margin against the proposition to a 3% margin for it. “Equality for All,” the group leading the fight for homosexual marriage, acknowledged to the Wall Street Journal on October 22nd that their internal polling also showed a shift in voter sentiment toward traditional marriage – with a 4% current lead for the proposition over-ruling the Supreme Court.

In the last days before the election, even voters in deep-blue California (a state the McCain campaign has all-but-abandoned) seem to be rallying against gay marriage – despite Obama and Biden strongly and outspokenly opposing Proposition 8. This should encourage values conservatives to recognize that many (and perhaps most) Americans still care deeply about moral issues.

It’s now crucial for Senator McCain, Governor Palin and their supporters to emphasize those issues --- not even at a time of economic crisis, but especially at a time of economic crisis.

Controversies regarding the future of the family aren’t a distraction from financial challenges; for most Americans, there’s an inescapable connection between economic and values issues. Nothing brings long-term security and prosperity more reliably than a stable, traditional family life and nothing predisposes people for a life of poverty more than out-of-wedlock birth and marital chaos. The educational success of our children, which directly determines their future financial future, depends more on the values they learn at home than the quality of their schools. Learning to work hard, to save money and to live within your means remains a dependable path to economic advancement and the failure to learn those lessons (especially by political and business leaders) helped to create the current crisis.

Moreover, the big-government “spread the wealth” programs favored by Barack Obama represent an assault on the family as well as a threat to the free-market economy. Today’s radical Democratic platform calls for a vast expansion of federal power that would make families and parenthood less important and less necessary.

Consider Obama’s promise of “universal pre-school” for all children age three and above. He insists that attendance at such federally mandated schools will remain voluntary, but paying for them will not. All citizens – including those mothers who choose to stay home with their little ones – will share in financing governmental day care, in effect punishing women who take care of their kids while rewarding those who want to leave them with someone else.

At the other end of life, there’s also legitimate concern over Obama’s support for re-imposition of a crushing death tax, with a confiscatory rate of 45%. Nothing represents a more fundamental right for many families than the ability to pass on to their own children the wealth that they’ve accumulated through honest hard work –and on which they’ve already paid taxes as the parents earned the money.

No wonder that married voters already tilt decisively toward McCain, according to all polls. (The most recent IBD-TIPP survey gives him a margin of 50% to 43%). Obama leads among the public in general only because of his huge lead among single voters (about a third of the electorate).

According to exit polls in 2004, Bush won married voters 57% to 42%. If McCain comes close to that margin he too will win the election.

The chances for a come-from-behind victory for Republicans depend almost entirely upon the return of values voters --- most of them married people who care deeply about religious faith, traditional virtues and family issues. Those voters abandoned the Republicans in the disastrous off-year election of 2006 --- repulsed by the Mark Foley scandal and numerous other indications of ethical lapses among flawed and compromised conservatives in Congress.

If the values voters return to the polls (and to the GOP fold) victory remains possible.

The 2004 prominence of social conservatives was more than a fluke or a temporary phenomenon. The Los Angeles Times has conducted its own exit polling since 1992, asking voters “which two issues they considered most important in deciding how they would vote.” In 2004, 40% listed “moral/ethical values” as one of those top two – a strikingly similar percentage to the 35% who named moral values in 2000 and the 40% who did so in 1996. On a related note, the percentage of religious people who participate in recent elections has remained stable and reliable: 41% of voters in both 2004 and 2000 said they attended church at least once a week and they voted decisively, both times, for George W. Bush.

Leading commentators largely ignored these citizens in 2004 until the results of the election and the exit polls forced them to reconsider. If Republicans concentrate on mobilizing social conservatives between now and Election Day, and speak clearly and persuasively about the powerful connection between economic and moral issues, then values voters may provide the defenders of conventional wisdom with an even bigger surprise than they did four years ago.

RE: “Likewise, there are nowhere near the amount of Obama signs and bumper stickers as there were Kerry signs/stickers here in CA.”

“I don’t think Obama is generating as much excitement as folks think”

*********

Agree — and in my corner of L.A., the weird thing is that some of the Obama bumper stickers seem to have disappeared over the past three weeks! Where’d they go? I don’t see signs of vandalism.

As for O not generating as much excitement as some might think — I believe one must look at his supporters closely to see which groups, specifically, he appeals to.

KTM, we have to stop allowing these Marxists defining the parameters. I understand and I catch myself using their paradigm all the time. It is hard not to do so we are brainwashed from kindergarten to grave.

McCain=Pro-life, 0bama= Pro-abortion, there is no pro-choice. Pro-choice is Newspeak. that by design, sets the tone of the debate and puts the advocates for the unborn at a disadvantage, right out of the gate.

Many choices are passed by in the vast majority of abortions that are performed. The Choice to use birth control, the choice not to be sexually active, not to be promiscuous and the choice to have the child and raise it lovingly or allow someone to adopt.

Just my 2 cents. I don’t think it’s so much that McCain has rallied or found a niche as much as it’s a Palin bump and voters really don’t want Obama as President. They see the damage the “Chosen One” can do. McCain is more of a democrat than the socialist Obama.

Medved mentions the loathsome Mark Foley.

That was a deliberate scandal-gig set off by the gay caucus with DNC support and blessings, to scandalize and suppress the conservative vote.

That said, the GOP deserved lumps for not jumping on it (although I've read more recently that they were mouse-trapped, that there were extenuating circumstances, etc., for Denny Hastert's dilatory and ineffectual response). They should have been way out in front, and shouldn't have let the media get away with pitching their circus tents on the GOP's lawn, not with Congressman Jefferson, D-La., refusing to explain where the cash in his freezer came from.

CNS NEWS.com: "OBAMA SEES SUPREME COURT JUSTICES AS CHAMPIONS OF THE WEAK OVER THE STRONG" by Matthew Cover (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "In both speeches, the Illinois Democrat chastised the nominees not for their positions on specific constitutional issues or matters of law but for what he perceived as too often siding with the strong instead of the weak. He chargied Roberts, for example, with being dismissive of claims of racial and gender discrimination and criticized Alito for making a habit out of siding with government and corporations against plaintiffs and workers.") (October 29, 2008)

THREATSWATCH.org - blog: "ENTERING A NEW ERA" by Jay Fraser (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "However, to consider that the War on Terrorism and its battles are over simply because the United States has not had to withstand another direct attack on our soil would be naive.") (October 28, 2008, 6:19 pm)

NEWSMAX.com: "EXPECT FEWER LIBERTIES IF OBAMA WINS" by David Limbaugh (COMMENTARY SNIPPET: "I am sincerely worried that if Obama wins, the checks and balances incorporated into our Constitution may not be enough to prevent a radical and irreversible diminution of our individual liberties because a confluence of factors has emerged to create a climate conducive to fundamental change. These are the factors:") (October 28, 2008, 8:40 am)

FRONTPAGE MAGAZINE.com (FOX NEWS): "THOSE MARXIST COLLEGE YEARS" by Bill Sammon (October 29, 2008)

FRONTPAGE MAGAZINE.com: "PALESTINIANS CAMPAIGNING FOR OBAMA" by Itamar Marcus and Barbara Crook (October 29, 2008)

JIHAD WATCH.org (GLOBE AND MAIL.co.uk): "GAZA STUDENTS CALL U.S. VOTERS, ASKING THEM TO SUPPORT OBAMA" (October 27, 2008)

DANIEL PIPES.org (HUDSON INSTITUTE): "PLO ACKNOWLEDGES: STILL AT WAR WITH ISRAEL" by Daniel Pipes (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Yasir Arafat may have shaken Yitzhak Rabin's hand in 1993 and signed solemn declarations about ending the war to eliminate Israel, but late last month, in a New York City courtroom, the Palestine Liberation Organization formally confirmed that it still sees terrorism against Israelis as legitimate acts of war.") (October 28, 2008)

FAMILY SECURITY MATTERS.org: "BARACK OBAMA'S ANTI-ISRAEL ALLIANCES" by Rachel Neuwirth (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Rashid Khalidi was the director of the PLO's press agency WAFA from 1976 to 1982, at a time when the PLO was conducting a massacre of 37 Israeli civilians in a bus on Israel's coastal road, the brutal murder of a four-year-old Israeli girl in Nahariya, and numerous other terrorist killings of Israeli civilians. The PLO was also waging a brutal war against the Lebanese Christian community during this period, and carried out numerous massacres of Lebanese Christians; the worst of these was the killing of about 500 people in the village of Damour.") (October 24, 2008)

Elections.FOX NEWS.com: "LA TIMES REFUSES TO RELEASE TAPE OF OBAMA PRAISING CONTROVERSIAL ACTIVIST Video of farewell party for alleged PLO worker shows Obama toasting 'friend and dinner companion' with questionable past." (October 28, 2008)

AMERICAN THINKER.com - blog: "THE SAID-KHALIDI-OBAMA CONNECTION" by Ed Lasky (October 22, 2008)

stepping back in time...CAMPUS-WATCH.org - Campus Watch Research: "COLUMBIA U. RELEASE EDWARD SAID CHAIR DONORS: NAMES ARAB GOVERNMENT" (March 19, 2004)

stepping back in time...CAMPUS-WATCH.org (FRONTPAGE MAGAZINE.com): "SECRETS, DONORS AND THE EDWARD SAID CHAIR" by Jonathan Calt Harris (November 19, 2003)

stepping back in time...MARTIN KRAMER'S SANDBOX - blog: "RASHID REDUX" (Posted Janurary 29, 2003)

[Post no. 2] - ARCHIVES - Topic: BIDEN & OBAMA (aka B & O) (October 28, 2008 -- Click Here TO VIEW MY ARCHIVED LINKS.)

JEFF HEAD.com - Videos: "THE AUDACITY OF TRUTH - Obama In His & His Supporters Own Words"

All the yards with only one political placard...that of Paul Avela, a local republican running for state senate. Maybe three Obama signs. One really stupid Obama/Kerry sign! Same number of McCain/Palin signs. Less than a dozen all told. So what’s going on in all those other houses without signs?

The Brady effect, that’s what. People aren’t stupid. They know small business makes this country run, and Obama will squash small business under his foot. Pray to St. Jude that he helps the US on Nov. 4. He’s worked miracles, and that’s what this country needs right now and fast.

I know in our family, the ultra-conservative vote has doubled this year, as two of our three daughters can vote for the first time this election! How many other families out there who voted conservative in the last couple of elections have added new 18-year old voters? And - in our circle of friends at least - the conservatives have lots more children than the liberals do!!! (and we’ve never been polled...!)

[nothing republican congress. It cost the house and senate.

The conservatives have awoken now and I believe there will be some surprises in congressional races too. Many of these polls are extrapolating numbers from 2006 turnout and oversampling democrats to boot.]

That’s been on my mind too. In 2006, conservatives stayed home because they were sending a message - to Republicans. So that skews all the political demographic data. But conservatives as a whole must be livid that a Planned Parenthood Marxist is being shoved down their throats. I’m looking for an upset.

So what’s going on in all those other houses without signs?

I have no signs and no bumper stickers. I don't want to be vandalized by tolerant liberals. Even so, around here (an area that the Obamacentric media tells me is overwhelmingly for Obama), McCain signs and bumper stickers significantly outnumber Obama signs and stickers.

Two years ago many conservatives never voted because the immigration fiasco and how they were disgusted with the do nothing republican congress. It cost the house and senate. The conservatives have awoken now and I believe there will be some surprises in congressional races too. Many of these polls are extrapolating numbers from 2006 turnout and oversampling democrats to boot. I am even seeing many pro McCain/Palin yardsigns here in Oregon something that was missing 4 years ago with W.

I agree.

Instead of teaching the GOP a 'lesson' we learned one-don't put Democrats in power.

They are important to me. There's a connection between a nation's moral health and its economic prosperity. We cannot have a sound economy without protecting life and families. Voters recognize that and while liberal elites are dismissive of traditional values, they are still the code by which most people live their lives. In Colorado, I voted for the personhood amendment. If we don't protect the unborn, we will never be a decent society. Pocketbook concerns matter but at a time of economic crisis, our character matters even more.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

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