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Pennsylvania, what happened? Flame Away

Posted on 11/04/2008 11:11:57 PM PST by HamiltonJay

I may write on this topic one more time when the final few percentage points of precincts are in and I have a little more time to analyse.

That however will be it, so you can flame away at me all you want.

As most of you know I saw PA falling for McCain, very comfortably, obviously that has not happened. So, I was wrong and I am sorry.

Feel free to yell, kick, scream, flame whatever you wish at me IN THIS THREAD, if that helps you get through the night. Know that I never tried to purposely deceive any of you, but only report what I was seeing. My flaw was it seems not seeing enough of what was going on out east, or that overall turnout in PA was going to be down.

Now, I know that people will rehash this election and the McCain campaign for a long time, for their choice of fighting for PA. I had no influence or no responsibility for the campaign or their decisions, however I can see even now why they fought for PA. Did time and money in PA cost us VA or OH of FL? Perhaps, but given its 1:30 in the morning and MONTANA still hasn't been called I'd say its pretty clear blaming the election loss soley on drawing the line in the sand in PA is rather laughable.

The election is over, and Fauxbama did take PA by what looks to be a 10+ point margin. I found that unbelievable, and still find this shocking to this day. But it happened, the pollsters were right, I was wrong, and as such I eat my humble pie.

I will now explain what I personally saw, and please stick with me, because much of what I personally witnessed happening was true and has been confirmed by the results. WHere I failed was projecting what I was first hand seeing out into other areas of PA I had not been first hand.

I live in the Pittsburgh suburbs, and I noticed trending here that support for Fauxbama was weaker than Kerry, noticably weaker. Annecdotal evidence, but evidence that certainly gave me pause to the notions that Fauxbama was carrying Kerry levels of support. Kerry had squeaked by so I viewed this as a good thing. 144,000 or so votes was all he carried.

Turns out in the results I was right about what I saw, just not remotely right on the projections out.

The following 7 counties make up the Pittsburgh area, here are the final results of this election and the last election for them Percentages.. I have posted real numbers in (Allegheny)Pittsburgh, to illustrate a point I will make following this:

Allegheny: M 41.7(254,000) B 42.1(272,000) F 57.4(350,000) K 57.2(369,000) 96,000 93,000

Fayette: M 49.6% Bush 45.8% F 49.3% Kerry 53.2%

Greene: M 49.5% Bush 50% F 48.9% Kerry 49.3%

Washington: M 51.8% Bush 49.6% F 47% Kerry 50.1%

Beaver: M 50.9% Bush 48.4% F 47.8% Kerry 51.1%

Armstrong: M 61.4% Bush 60.9% F 37.2% Kerry 38.7%

Butler: M 63.1% Bush 64.9% F 35.7% Kerry 35.2%

Westmoreland: M 57.8% Bush 56% F 41.2% Kerry 43.5%

Now as you can tell by these numbers McCain actually outperformed Bush in the majority of these counties, and Fauxbama underperformed Kerry in the majority of these counties. Now yes, these margins were generally not huge, Given the Kerry and Gore victories has been so close this certainly suggested Fauxbama was in trouble, the percentage shifts did not need to be huge to cost the Dem the state, less than 2000 votes per county on average was all it would take.

Obviously he wasn't in trouble he won the state by 642424 votes, a rather big spread over the 144ish that Kerry won by or the 205k that Gore won by. However he didn't gain on that spread in terms of numbers in the Pittsburgh region over Kerry. So what was going on in the pittsburgh region clearly was not reflective of much of the state.

Erie for example went to Fauxbama by 25,000 votes, where is Kerry won it by only 10,000. SO while he was definately having issues here in the Pittsburgh region, he was not having the same issues elsewhere.

So, there you have it, I blew it, and at this late hour, that's about the best I can figure out as to why I blew it so badly.

So, flame away, I'll go eat my crow and humble pie, and get some sleep. This battle has ended with us in solid defeat.. tommorrow the next battle begins.

TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: pa2008
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To: 4rcane
OK palin and mccain both said they had zero tolerance for voter fraud. where are they tonight? where is the damn fight? how close were the states needed? do we have a final count? ive been emailing a friend and neither of us are seeing any information on FR about how close (or not) the race was.
51 posted on 11/05/2008 12:05:33 AM PST by CanadianMusherinMI (drill baby drill/mine baby mine!)
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To: PhiKapMom

Really, to hell with IA and NH and Mediascum and RINOs and “open” primaries etc. How do we reclaim the nomination process so that the Mediascum do not determine who we are allowed to nominate? We really have TWO years to reform the system for choosing R. party nominees since by the time it gets close to 2012 it will be too late for the coming cycle.

52 posted on 11/05/2008 12:07:27 AM PST by Enchante (The real "bitter clingers" are on the LEFT -- ranting Obamabots clinging to delusions!!)
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To: PhiKapMom
If you find out how to do it, PhiKap, let me know. Maybe I can help.
53 posted on 11/05/2008 12:10:31 AM PST by singfreedom
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To: HamiltonJay
You know, I think McCain was getting a bit of traction in PA, but it was simply too late by the time his campaign made a concerted effort to compete there.

I think to some extent we saw two important things:

--The utter backfire of "Operation Chaos," which merely ended up pumping more money and resources into what eventually became Obama's "ground game" machine, while also giving him loads of media attention, and

--The failure of the McCain campaign to capitalize on the months and months and months between his capture of the nomination and the convention season. Where WAS the McCain campaign? What was it building all that time, if anything, on the ground?

Perhaps McCain would have lost in any case but... like this?

His campaign managers have a lot to answer for tomorrow.

54 posted on 11/05/2008 12:12:28 AM PST by seacapn
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To: Dustbunny

Well yes.

Philly suburbs trending liberal screws the whole state.

55 posted on 11/05/2008 12:13:56 AM PST by Impy (Welcome to the USSA)
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To: PhiKapMom
Wonder how we go about changing it? I am willing to start a petition or whatever it takes. We have 3 years to get it changed.

I think that the caucus order should be based on performance in the last Presidential election (or a similar setup). No state gets it "just because it has always been that way," and it rewards the organizations with moxie. And no crossover voting. Ever.

That this frigging state went for Obama (and Huckabee) tells anyone how worthless it is to the Republicans.

56 posted on 11/05/2008 12:20:20 AM PST by niteowl77 (The niteowl77s: parents who support those who support their soldier.)
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To: Enchante; singfreedom

I am with you guys! I want open primaries gone, I want Iowa, NH, and Michigan sent to the back of the pack, and want conservative states in the front that are reliable red states not ones that we have to guess are going red.

We need to start now to get it reformed. This is ludicrous for blue states and the media to pick our candidates. I detest open primaries with a passion. I want closed Republican primaries like we have in Oklahoma which BTW was ruled constitutional.

Don’t think that is too much to ask. RNC has way too much control for being such an inept organization. That place needs a thorough housecleaning.

57 posted on 11/05/2008 12:20:52 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: niteowl77

Exactly! Way too much time was spent by our candidates in Iowa and NH — both blue states.

States should be rewarded for staying red.

58 posted on 11/05/2008 12:26:28 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: singfreedom

I did a lot of work for McCain and was his coordinator in this part of the state. Like so many others I didn’t start out supporting McCain but went over after the FL primary when I was asked.

Also worked with that we put together a few months ago to support Congressoinal candidates.

At least Oklahoma went in large numbers for McCain. We must be doing something right in our State.

59 posted on 11/05/2008 12:30:49 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: PhiKapMom

To anyone who knows of a good way to start the ball rolling, just keep in mind that the Iowa Republican apparatus is quite creaky these days, and they would have no choice but to back down. It ain’t my mother’s GOP... heck it isn’t even mine.

60 posted on 11/05/2008 12:32:58 AM PST by niteowl77 (The niteowl77s: parents who support those who support their soldier.)
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To: niteowl77

That’s good to know. I am going to start asking around later today and see what I can find out. I will contact our OK National Committee people and bet I can get them on board.

61 posted on 11/05/2008 12:42:34 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: HamiltonJay

Will PA suffer buyers’ remorse when Obama destroys the coal industry and electricity prices go through the roof? (Well, the MSM will blame Bush of course.) People who voted for Obama did so because of greed and monumental stupidity. We’ll have more Jim Jones preaching from Obama, more lies than you can throw a stick at. And Wm. Ayres, Rev. Wright, and other Marxist pals will certainly become fixtures at the WH. We’ll see public schools graduating illiterates en masse. Then society will be expected to hand them jobs they’re not qualified to perform. Just the tip of the iceberg, folks. We’ve just ushered in the Age of Lunacy.

62 posted on 11/05/2008 12:51:02 AM PST by hershey
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To: tflabo


63 posted on 11/05/2008 12:59:25 AM PST by WildcatClan (The world is full of fatheads; so I invented Diet Shampoo)
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To: PhiKapMom

You bet we are. ;) I also live in Ky and they have their heads on pretty straight there as well. When this election is completely documented you will still see (county by county) that a large amount of the American land area is still Red.

Oklahoma has been able to keep Tulsa and OKC contained just as Ky. has kept Louisville and Lexington contained. In many of these states that went blue the larger cities create a large hill for Republican candidates to climb.

Everyone is getting down in the dumps but sans the suspicious timing of the financial crisis even McCain could have still won this election. He also thought being a Maverick was his strength when it likely is what kept quite a few republicans at home. Plus the novelty of Obama and I am sure more than few Republicans crossed over to be a part of history.

64 posted on 11/05/2008 1:16:19 AM PST by WildcatClan (The world is full of fatheads; so I invented Diet Shampoo)
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To: HamiltonJay
Flame away

OK ...

Did you see her dress? geesh

65 posted on 11/05/2008 1:21:09 AM PST by do the dhue (They've got us surrounded again. The poor bastards. General Creighton Abrams)
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To: HamiltonJay

McCain got creamed in South Central to South Eastern. (Well, he won, but way underperformed Bush) York, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Berks, Chester. Also the Lehigh Valley and NEPA.

South Central is becoming a cultural suburb of I-95. Philly and Baltimore aren’t far away.

Here’s 2004 for South Central - to southeast
Adams 32.6% 13,764 66.9% 28,247 0.5% 217 +15K
Berks 46.4% 76,309 53.0% 87,122 0.6% 1,056 +10K
Chester 47.5% 109,708 52.0% 120,036 0.5% 1,079 +10K
Cumberl 35.8% 37,928 63.8% 67,648 0.5% 506 +30K
Dauphin 45.6% 55,299 53.9% 65,296 0.5% 613 +10K
Lancast 33.6% 74,328 65.8% 145,591 0.6% 1,359 +71K
Lebanon 32.5% 18,109 66.6% 37,089 0.8% 467 +19K
York 35.5% 63,701 63.7% 114,270 0.7% 1,298 +51K

Bush got 216K more votes than Kerry in those 8 counties.

Here’s 2008 (to this point)

Adams Obama 17,475 40% McCain 26,134 59% +9K
Berks Obama 91,803 54% McCain 75,868 45% -16K
chester O 135,150 54% M 112,266 45% -23K
cumber O 45,355 43% M 59,693 56% +14K
dauphin O 69,352 54% M 57,964 45% -12K
lanc O 97,290 43% M 124,475 56% +27K
Lebanon O 22,004 40% M 32,325 59% +10K
york O 81,748 43% M 107,367 56% +26K

McCain got 35K more votes than Obama in those 8 counties.

That’s a loss of 181K votes from 2004.

66 posted on 11/05/2008 1:22:25 AM PST by truthfreedom
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To: PhiKapMom

FL was what gave McCain the nomination, and that one is also looking blue.

67 posted on 11/05/2008 1:25:02 AM PST by Truthsearcher
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To: WildcatClan

The good thing about OKC is that it is Republican. OKC has had a Republican Mayor for years. Tulsa is more apt to go Dem. Oklahoma County is a Republican stronghold in OK.

I grew up in Ohio when we had the two Dem Senators who I never thought they would get rid of and now they are going back to those days.

I am so happy we didn’t have to worry about returning our Republican Senators!

68 posted on 11/05/2008 1:27:13 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: truthfreedom

I should add that right now it looks like Obama won by 600k.

Kerry won by 145K.

Obama got 455K more than Kerry.

181K of those came from those 8 Philly / Baltimore exurb type counties.

274K of those came from elsewhere.

Another thing to note is how well Ron Paul did in those counties. Around 20%.

McCain was a dick to Ron Paul throughout, and never tried one bit to get votes from Ron Paul supporters.

69 posted on 11/05/2008 1:32:09 AM PST by truthfreedom
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To: Truthsearcher

NH brought him back from the ashes of his campaign which sent him on to victory in FL.

I am saying only reliable red states should be the first states to choose our candidates. If you went blue in the last election, go to the back of the pack and permanently send Iowa, NH, and Michigan to the back. I am tired of Iowa, NH, and Michigan being up at the front. Iowa caucus’ are a joke!

70 posted on 11/05/2008 1:32:32 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: HamiltonJay
I really was hoping to win because I have great fear where a man like Obama will take this country. McCain waited way too late to catch fire. A watershed moment for me was at the Wisconsin rally where that supporter shouted, " I AM MAD, I AM REALLY MAD!" McCain could have really taken advantage and shown what a fighter he was, but his response was tepid at best. He was too nice and it hurt him.

We have to regroup and fight the next fight. By the way, I don't think that anyone on this board will flame you. Keep posting, we need to keep good FReepers around. The next four years are going to be tough.

71 posted on 11/05/2008 1:40:53 AM PST by nicksaunt
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To: Lexinom

It wouldn’t resonate in Philly. Not a coal area.
South Central is not a coal area, or really much of a heavy industrial area.

I’m surprised that Luzerne and Lackawanna went in the wrong directions - those are coal areas.

72 posted on 11/05/2008 1:49:56 AM PST by truthfreedom
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To: HamiltonJay
So, I was wrong and I am sorry.

You have nothing to be sorry about.

The sorry thing is now our nation that will embark on the dark, dreary road of communism and will be unfit for Christians and Jews to live in.

73 posted on 11/05/2008 1:52:10 AM PST by IbJensen (Obombazombies are voting for communism!)
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To: Impy

And the strongest traditionally Republican areas (South Central) are seeming to take on the tendencies of the Philly burbs.

74 posted on 11/05/2008 1:52:51 AM PST by truthfreedom
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To: PhiKapMom

I agree, I made the same comments in another thread. Our primaries failed us this year just as the Dem primaries failed them so many times in the past, nominating losers like Mondale, Dukakis, and Kerry.

75 posted on 11/05/2008 2:16:31 AM PST by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: PhiKapMom
Thankfully, yes.

I had said I wouldn't do anything this time, as McCain was not my first choice either. After I realized how awful Obama was, though, I relented. I've done some work for Inhofe, and at the little office here in Edmond.

I just hope our good conservative folks don't get too discouraged working with all those dunderheads in D.C.!

76 posted on 11/05/2008 2:27:31 AM PST by singfreedom
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To: PhiKapMom
There are tremendous political pressures to keep the primaries where they are. It is not all that bad a system. It made Reagan an acceptable candidate in '80.

I would favor a rotating schedule of states, at least one from each region. We really have to be careful though, an early primary in Alabama or California might result in a candidate that is not acceptable to the rest of the country. Like you, I would look for red states but I differ on how red and on open primaries. An earlier and open primary in Nevada, for example would test how well a candidate would do in the general.

Now is the time to push for change. After this failure, the party will be more open to it and delaying it will kill it. I am putting whatever weight I have behind making the primaries serve the interest of the party and not of the current early states.

77 posted on 11/05/2008 2:40:08 AM PST by MARTIAL MONK (I'm waiting for the POP! It's gonna be a BIG one.)
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To: PhiKapMom
A big 10-4 on the RNC housecleaning! The “open primary” is the stuff nightmares are made of. We don't need Dems, OR the media, choosing our candidates!

Now might be a good time to start with the RNC. I imagine about now they're ripe for a “coup”.

78 posted on 11/05/2008 2:50:21 AM PST by singfreedom
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To: hershey

Ah, yes, the inmates have, for sure, taken over the asylum!

79 posted on 11/05/2008 2:55:20 AM PST by singfreedom
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To: do the dhue

God, what is that rag? Is she pregnant, or what? That is just plain ugly!

80 posted on 11/05/2008 2:58:20 AM PST by singfreedom
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To: HamiltonJay

I am doing analysis this morning. The number of votes does not appear to have changed radically.

So much for the influx of new voters.

McCain simply got smaller numbers in RED areas than BUSH did. Obama got the defections.

2004 Kerry won PA by 120,000 votes
2008 Obama won PA by 600,000+ votes

Total votes cast was nearly the same.

81 posted on 11/05/2008 4:09:44 AM PST by Erik Latranyi (Too many conservatives urge retreat when the war of politics doesn't go their way.)
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To: do the dhue
Did you see her dress? geesh

The people's flag is deepest red,
It shrouded oft our martyr'd dead
And ere their limbs grew stiff and cold,
Their hearts' blood dyed its ev'ry fold.

Then raise the scarlet standard high,
Within its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.

82 posted on 11/05/2008 4:14:53 AM PST by Jim Noble (I have read a fiery gospel, writ in burnished rows of steel)
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To: Glacier Honey
I wonder how they and Ohio and others will feel if they start to lose their jobs due to BHO’s cap and trade on Coal plants and other jobs tied to it.

None of this will matter. Despite the fact that the RATs have controlled Congress for the last two years and despite the fact that come January, they will control Congress and the White House, they will blame the coming recession/depression on Bush's failed economic policies, just like we blamed Clinton for the recession that occurred at the start of Bush's first term (even though we controlled both houses of Congress for the six years preceding Bush's election).

83 posted on 11/05/2008 4:21:42 AM PST by Labyrinthos
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To: blondee123

Get real. No way ACORN made up the difference of 70,000 on 318,000 votes.

84 posted on 11/05/2008 4:24:04 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ (Nemo me impune lacessit.)
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To: truthfreedom

I wonder, do they like electricity in Philly? Or is that considered an evil, right-wing hate concept in those parts? :-)

85 posted on 11/05/2008 5:07:25 AM PST by Lexinom
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To: Lexinom

When electric rates go up next year who will all the bums in Philly blame? Theres no more Bush,no evil republican majority. Just good old Eddy and Obummer.

86 posted on 11/05/2008 5:24:54 AM PST by linn37 (Phlebotomists need love too.)
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To: linn37

They’ll blame the few remaining R- congresscritters.

87 posted on 11/05/2008 5:34:57 AM PST by Lexinom
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I am with you. I know we need change — we have got to dump the Iowa Caucus, NH, and Michigan frontloaded because not one of those three states tests who is going to win across the Country.

Now is the time to come up with a workable solution so that those three states do not determine who is going to be our candidate with the help of the media. BTW SCOTUS ruled in favor of our closed primary system in Oklahoma.

Firmly oppose the caucus sytem.

Where do we go from here? We need to start working on a solution like yesterday. I just know I am thoroughly disguated at what I see with Iowa and NH who do not represent Republicans but demand the candidates spend so much time there if a candidate doesn’t the media tanks them.

If you have any ideas, send them to me at

88 posted on 11/05/2008 5:59:49 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: HamiltonJay

My Westmoreland County did not disappoint.
And they are actually pretty typical of PA outside the major urban areas.
But Murtha? Too many people are still programmed to vote for any jackass with a “D” who brings home some bacon.

89 posted on 11/05/2008 6:34:39 AM PST by silverleaf (Fasten your seat belts- it's going to be a BUMPY ride.)
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To: truthfreedom

Those coal miners are gonna need big checks from Uncle Sugar until they find new work in the “green job” economy zerO has promised.

But maybe the locals can go back to the 1890’s to 1930’s of going out on Sundays to pick coal lumps from the slag heaps for their home heaters.

90 posted on 11/05/2008 6:37:10 AM PST by silverleaf (Fasten your seat belts- it's going to be a BUMPY ride.)
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To: HamiltonJay

No sweat, HJ. I thank you for your optimistic posts through the election season which were great comfort and motivator to me.

91 posted on 11/05/2008 7:38:11 AM PST by Uncledave (Zombie Reagan '08)
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To: do the dhue

Kinda reminds me of a black widow spider.

92 posted on 11/05/2008 7:38:21 AM PST by Strzelec
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To: Claud
I had in mind is not the Pennsylvania that I knew, but then I realize that with all the other factors going on (Bush, bailout), I’m thinking this was more of a “throw the bastards out” vote rather than an endorsement of Obama.

I think the PA we knew has become a larger version of New Jersey. The trends there are not encouraging at all.

This election was all about terminal Bush fatigue and people buying into the hype of electing the first Black president. We've been spoon-fed this stuff for years and it finally paid dividends for the left.

In four years, things will look a lot different.
93 posted on 11/05/2008 8:01:26 AM PST by Antoninus (This, too, shall pass away.)
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To: Antoninus
This election was all about terminal Bush fatigue

I know a little about that myself!

94 posted on 11/05/2008 8:16:31 AM PST by Claud
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To: Antoninus

race baiting industry took a serious hit.

no more, US is a racist nation. That argument is DEAD.

(does this man we can fiannly pull BET off the lineup and replace with something more interesting like the “grass growing” channel?)

95 posted on 11/05/2008 8:21:40 AM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! and
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