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Pennsylvania, what happened? Flame Away

Posted on 11/04/2008 11:11:57 PM PST by HamiltonJay

I may write on this topic one more time when the final few percentage points of precincts are in and I have a little more time to analyse.

That however will be it, so you can flame away at me all you want.

As most of you know I saw PA falling for McCain, very comfortably, obviously that has not happened. So, I was wrong and I am sorry.

Feel free to yell, kick, scream, flame whatever you wish at me IN THIS THREAD, if that helps you get through the night. Know that I never tried to purposely deceive any of you, but only report what I was seeing. My flaw was it seems not seeing enough of what was going on out east, or that overall turnout in PA was going to be down.

Now, I know that people will rehash this election and the McCain campaign for a long time, for their choice of fighting for PA. I had no influence or no responsibility for the campaign or their decisions, however I can see even now why they fought for PA. Did time and money in PA cost us VA or OH of FL? Perhaps, but given its 1:30 in the morning and MONTANA still hasn't been called I'd say its pretty clear blaming the election loss soley on drawing the line in the sand in PA is rather laughable.

The election is over, and Fauxbama did take PA by what looks to be a 10+ point margin. I found that unbelievable, and still find this shocking to this day. But it happened, the pollsters were right, I was wrong, and as such I eat my humble pie.

I will now explain what I personally saw, and please stick with me, because much of what I personally witnessed happening was true and has been confirmed by the results. WHere I failed was projecting what I was first hand seeing out into other areas of PA I had not been first hand.

I live in the Pittsburgh suburbs, and I noticed trending here that support for Fauxbama was weaker than Kerry, noticably weaker. Annecdotal evidence, but evidence that certainly gave me pause to the notions that Fauxbama was carrying Kerry levels of support. Kerry had squeaked by so I viewed this as a good thing. 144,000 or so votes was all he carried.

Turns out in the results I was right about what I saw, just not remotely right on the projections out.

The following 7 counties make up the Pittsburgh area, here are the final results of this election and the last election for them Percentages.. I have posted real numbers in (Allegheny)Pittsburgh, to illustrate a point I will make following this:

Allegheny: M 41.7(254,000) B 42.1(272,000) F 57.4(350,000) K 57.2(369,000) 96,000 93,000

Fayette: M 49.6% Bush 45.8% F 49.3% Kerry 53.2%

Greene: M 49.5% Bush 50% F 48.9% Kerry 49.3%

Washington: M 51.8% Bush 49.6% F 47% Kerry 50.1%

Beaver: M 50.9% Bush 48.4% F 47.8% Kerry 51.1%

Armstrong: M 61.4% Bush 60.9% F 37.2% Kerry 38.7%

Butler: M 63.1% Bush 64.9% F 35.7% Kerry 35.2%

Westmoreland: M 57.8% Bush 56% F 41.2% Kerry 43.5%

Now as you can tell by these numbers McCain actually outperformed Bush in the majority of these counties, and Fauxbama underperformed Kerry in the majority of these counties. Now yes, these margins were generally not huge, Given the Kerry and Gore victories has been so close this certainly suggested Fauxbama was in trouble, the percentage shifts did not need to be huge to cost the Dem the state, less than 2000 votes per county on average was all it would take.

Obviously he wasn't in trouble he won the state by 642424 votes, a rather big spread over the 144ish that Kerry won by or the 205k that Gore won by. However he didn't gain on that spread in terms of numbers in the Pittsburgh region over Kerry. So what was going on in the pittsburgh region clearly was not reflective of much of the state.

Erie for example went to Fauxbama by 25,000 votes, where is Kerry won it by only 10,000. SO while he was definately having issues here in the Pittsburgh region, he was not having the same issues elsewhere.

So, there you have it, I blew it, and at this late hour, that's about the best I can figure out as to why I blew it so badly.

So, flame away, I'll go eat my crow and humble pie, and get some sleep. This battle has ended with us in solid defeat.. tommorrow the next battle begins.

TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: pa2008
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To: niteowl77

That’s good to know. I am going to start asking around later today and see what I can find out. I will contact our OK National Committee people and bet I can get them on board.

61 posted on 11/05/2008 12:42:34 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: HamiltonJay

Will PA suffer buyers’ remorse when Obama destroys the coal industry and electricity prices go through the roof? (Well, the MSM will blame Bush of course.) People who voted for Obama did so because of greed and monumental stupidity. We’ll have more Jim Jones preaching from Obama, more lies than you can throw a stick at. And Wm. Ayres, Rev. Wright, and other Marxist pals will certainly become fixtures at the WH. We’ll see public schools graduating illiterates en masse. Then society will be expected to hand them jobs they’re not qualified to perform. Just the tip of the iceberg, folks. We’ve just ushered in the Age of Lunacy.

62 posted on 11/05/2008 12:51:02 AM PST by hershey
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To: tflabo


63 posted on 11/05/2008 12:59:25 AM PST by WildcatClan (The world is full of fatheads; so I invented Diet Shampoo)
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To: PhiKapMom

You bet we are. ;) I also live in Ky and they have their heads on pretty straight there as well. When this election is completely documented you will still see (county by county) that a large amount of the American land area is still Red.

Oklahoma has been able to keep Tulsa and OKC contained just as Ky. has kept Louisville and Lexington contained. In many of these states that went blue the larger cities create a large hill for Republican candidates to climb.

Everyone is getting down in the dumps but sans the suspicious timing of the financial crisis even McCain could have still won this election. He also thought being a Maverick was his strength when it likely is what kept quite a few republicans at home. Plus the novelty of Obama and I am sure more than few Republicans crossed over to be a part of history.

64 posted on 11/05/2008 1:16:19 AM PST by WildcatClan (The world is full of fatheads; so I invented Diet Shampoo)
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To: HamiltonJay
Flame away

OK ...

Did you see her dress? geesh

65 posted on 11/05/2008 1:21:09 AM PST by do the dhue (They've got us surrounded again. The poor bastards. General Creighton Abrams)
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To: HamiltonJay

McCain got creamed in South Central to South Eastern. (Well, he won, but way underperformed Bush) York, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Berks, Chester. Also the Lehigh Valley and NEPA.

South Central is becoming a cultural suburb of I-95. Philly and Baltimore aren’t far away.

Here’s 2004 for South Central - to southeast
Adams 32.6% 13,764 66.9% 28,247 0.5% 217 +15K
Berks 46.4% 76,309 53.0% 87,122 0.6% 1,056 +10K
Chester 47.5% 109,708 52.0% 120,036 0.5% 1,079 +10K
Cumberl 35.8% 37,928 63.8% 67,648 0.5% 506 +30K
Dauphin 45.6% 55,299 53.9% 65,296 0.5% 613 +10K
Lancast 33.6% 74,328 65.8% 145,591 0.6% 1,359 +71K
Lebanon 32.5% 18,109 66.6% 37,089 0.8% 467 +19K
York 35.5% 63,701 63.7% 114,270 0.7% 1,298 +51K

Bush got 216K more votes than Kerry in those 8 counties.

Here’s 2008 (to this point)

Adams Obama 17,475 40% McCain 26,134 59% +9K
Berks Obama 91,803 54% McCain 75,868 45% -16K
chester O 135,150 54% M 112,266 45% -23K
cumber O 45,355 43% M 59,693 56% +14K
dauphin O 69,352 54% M 57,964 45% -12K
lanc O 97,290 43% M 124,475 56% +27K
Lebanon O 22,004 40% M 32,325 59% +10K
york O 81,748 43% M 107,367 56% +26K

McCain got 35K more votes than Obama in those 8 counties.

That’s a loss of 181K votes from 2004.

66 posted on 11/05/2008 1:22:25 AM PST by truthfreedom
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To: PhiKapMom

FL was what gave McCain the nomination, and that one is also looking blue.

67 posted on 11/05/2008 1:25:02 AM PST by Truthsearcher
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To: WildcatClan

The good thing about OKC is that it is Republican. OKC has had a Republican Mayor for years. Tulsa is more apt to go Dem. Oklahoma County is a Republican stronghold in OK.

I grew up in Ohio when we had the two Dem Senators who I never thought they would get rid of and now they are going back to those days.

I am so happy we didn’t have to worry about returning our Republican Senators!

68 posted on 11/05/2008 1:27:13 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: truthfreedom

I should add that right now it looks like Obama won by 600k.

Kerry won by 145K.

Obama got 455K more than Kerry.

181K of those came from those 8 Philly / Baltimore exurb type counties.

274K of those came from elsewhere.

Another thing to note is how well Ron Paul did in those counties. Around 20%.

McCain was a dick to Ron Paul throughout, and never tried one bit to get votes from Ron Paul supporters.

69 posted on 11/05/2008 1:32:09 AM PST by truthfreedom
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To: Truthsearcher

NH brought him back from the ashes of his campaign which sent him on to victory in FL.

I am saying only reliable red states should be the first states to choose our candidates. If you went blue in the last election, go to the back of the pack and permanently send Iowa, NH, and Michigan to the back. I am tired of Iowa, NH, and Michigan being up at the front. Iowa caucus’ are a joke!

70 posted on 11/05/2008 1:32:32 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: HamiltonJay
I really was hoping to win because I have great fear where a man like Obama will take this country. McCain waited way too late to catch fire. A watershed moment for me was at the Wisconsin rally where that supporter shouted, " I AM MAD, I AM REALLY MAD!" McCain could have really taken advantage and shown what a fighter he was, but his response was tepid at best. He was too nice and it hurt him.

We have to regroup and fight the next fight. By the way, I don't think that anyone on this board will flame you. Keep posting, we need to keep good FReepers around. The next four years are going to be tough.

71 posted on 11/05/2008 1:40:53 AM PST by nicksaunt
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To: Lexinom

It wouldn’t resonate in Philly. Not a coal area.
South Central is not a coal area, or really much of a heavy industrial area.

I’m surprised that Luzerne and Lackawanna went in the wrong directions - those are coal areas.

72 posted on 11/05/2008 1:49:56 AM PST by truthfreedom
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To: HamiltonJay
So, I was wrong and I am sorry.

You have nothing to be sorry about.

The sorry thing is now our nation that will embark on the dark, dreary road of communism and will be unfit for Christians and Jews to live in.

73 posted on 11/05/2008 1:52:10 AM PST by IbJensen (Obombazombies are voting for communism!)
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To: Impy

And the strongest traditionally Republican areas (South Central) are seeming to take on the tendencies of the Philly burbs.

74 posted on 11/05/2008 1:52:51 AM PST by truthfreedom
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To: PhiKapMom

I agree, I made the same comments in another thread. Our primaries failed us this year just as the Dem primaries failed them so many times in the past, nominating losers like Mondale, Dukakis, and Kerry.

75 posted on 11/05/2008 2:16:31 AM PST by Citizen of the Savage Nation
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To: PhiKapMom
Thankfully, yes.

I had said I wouldn't do anything this time, as McCain was not my first choice either. After I realized how awful Obama was, though, I relented. I've done some work for Inhofe, and at the little office here in Edmond.

I just hope our good conservative folks don't get too discouraged working with all those dunderheads in D.C.!

76 posted on 11/05/2008 2:27:31 AM PST by singfreedom
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To: PhiKapMom
There are tremendous political pressures to keep the primaries where they are. It is not all that bad a system. It made Reagan an acceptable candidate in '80.

I would favor a rotating schedule of states, at least one from each region. We really have to be careful though, an early primary in Alabama or California might result in a candidate that is not acceptable to the rest of the country. Like you, I would look for red states but I differ on how red and on open primaries. An earlier and open primary in Nevada, for example would test how well a candidate would do in the general.

Now is the time to push for change. After this failure, the party will be more open to it and delaying it will kill it. I am putting whatever weight I have behind making the primaries serve the interest of the party and not of the current early states.

77 posted on 11/05/2008 2:40:08 AM PST by MARTIAL MONK (I'm waiting for the POP! It's gonna be a BIG one.)
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To: PhiKapMom
A big 10-4 on the RNC housecleaning! The “open primary” is the stuff nightmares are made of. We don't need Dems, OR the media, choosing our candidates!

Now might be a good time to start with the RNC. I imagine about now they're ripe for a “coup”.

78 posted on 11/05/2008 2:50:21 AM PST by singfreedom
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To: hershey

Ah, yes, the inmates have, for sure, taken over the asylum!

79 posted on 11/05/2008 2:55:20 AM PST by singfreedom
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To: do the dhue

God, what is that rag? Is she pregnant, or what? That is just plain ugly!

80 posted on 11/05/2008 2:58:20 AM PST by singfreedom
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