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Pennsylvania, what happened? Flame Away

Posted on 11/04/2008 11:11:57 PM PST by HamiltonJay

I may write on this topic one more time when the final few percentage points of precincts are in and I have a little more time to analyse.

That however will be it, so you can flame away at me all you want.

As most of you know I saw PA falling for McCain, very comfortably, obviously that has not happened. So, I was wrong and I am sorry.

Feel free to yell, kick, scream, flame whatever you wish at me IN THIS THREAD, if that helps you get through the night. Know that I never tried to purposely deceive any of you, but only report what I was seeing. My flaw was it seems not seeing enough of what was going on out east, or that overall turnout in PA was going to be down.

Now, I know that people will rehash this election and the McCain campaign for a long time, for their choice of fighting for PA. I had no influence or no responsibility for the campaign or their decisions, however I can see even now why they fought for PA. Did time and money in PA cost us VA or OH of FL? Perhaps, but given its 1:30 in the morning and MONTANA still hasn't been called I'd say its pretty clear blaming the election loss soley on drawing the line in the sand in PA is rather laughable.

The election is over, and Fauxbama did take PA by what looks to be a 10+ point margin. I found that unbelievable, and still find this shocking to this day. But it happened, the pollsters were right, I was wrong, and as such I eat my humble pie.

I will now explain what I personally saw, and please stick with me, because much of what I personally witnessed happening was true and has been confirmed by the results. WHere I failed was projecting what I was first hand seeing out into other areas of PA I had not been first hand.

I live in the Pittsburgh suburbs, and I noticed trending here that support for Fauxbama was weaker than Kerry, noticably weaker. Annecdotal evidence, but evidence that certainly gave me pause to the notions that Fauxbama was carrying Kerry levels of support. Kerry had squeaked by so I viewed this as a good thing. 144,000 or so votes was all he carried.

Turns out in the results I was right about what I saw, just not remotely right on the projections out.

The following 7 counties make up the Pittsburgh area, here are the final results of this election and the last election for them Percentages.. I have posted real numbers in (Allegheny)Pittsburgh, to illustrate a point I will make following this:

Allegheny: M 41.7(254,000) B 42.1(272,000) F 57.4(350,000) K 57.2(369,000) 96,000 93,000

Fayette: M 49.6% Bush 45.8% F 49.3% Kerry 53.2%

Greene: M 49.5% Bush 50% F 48.9% Kerry 49.3%

Washington: M 51.8% Bush 49.6% F 47% Kerry 50.1%

Beaver: M 50.9% Bush 48.4% F 47.8% Kerry 51.1%

Armstrong: M 61.4% Bush 60.9% F 37.2% Kerry 38.7%

Butler: M 63.1% Bush 64.9% F 35.7% Kerry 35.2%

Westmoreland: M 57.8% Bush 56% F 41.2% Kerry 43.5%

Now as you can tell by these numbers McCain actually outperformed Bush in the majority of these counties, and Fauxbama underperformed Kerry in the majority of these counties. Now yes, these margins were generally not huge, Given the Kerry and Gore victories has been so close this certainly suggested Fauxbama was in trouble, the percentage shifts did not need to be huge to cost the Dem the state, less than 2000 votes per county on average was all it would take.

Obviously he wasn't in trouble he won the state by 642424 votes, a rather big spread over the 144ish that Kerry won by or the 205k that Gore won by. However he didn't gain on that spread in terms of numbers in the Pittsburgh region over Kerry. So what was going on in the pittsburgh region clearly was not reflective of much of the state.

Erie for example went to Fauxbama by 25,000 votes, where is Kerry won it by only 10,000. SO while he was definately having issues here in the Pittsburgh region, he was not having the same issues elsewhere.

So, there you have it, I blew it, and at this late hour, that's about the best I can figure out as to why I blew it so badly.

So, flame away, I'll go eat my crow and humble pie, and get some sleep. This battle has ended with us in solid defeat.. tommorrow the next battle begins.

TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: pa2008
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To: HamiltonJay

I am doing analysis this morning. The number of votes does not appear to have changed radically.

So much for the influx of new voters.

McCain simply got smaller numbers in RED areas than BUSH did. Obama got the defections.

2004 Kerry won PA by 120,000 votes
2008 Obama won PA by 600,000+ votes

Total votes cast was nearly the same.

81 posted on 11/05/2008 4:09:44 AM PST by Erik Latranyi (Too many conservatives urge retreat when the war of politics doesn't go their way.)
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To: do the dhue
Did you see her dress? geesh

The people's flag is deepest red,
It shrouded oft our martyr'd dead
And ere their limbs grew stiff and cold,
Their hearts' blood dyed its ev'ry fold.

Then raise the scarlet standard high,
Within its shade we'll live and die,
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We'll keep the red flag flying here.

82 posted on 11/05/2008 4:14:53 AM PST by Jim Noble (I have read a fiery gospel, writ in burnished rows of steel)
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To: Glacier Honey
I wonder how they and Ohio and others will feel if they start to lose their jobs due to BHO’s cap and trade on Coal plants and other jobs tied to it.

None of this will matter. Despite the fact that the RATs have controlled Congress for the last two years and despite the fact that come January, they will control Congress and the White House, they will blame the coming recession/depression on Bush's failed economic policies, just like we blamed Clinton for the recession that occurred at the start of Bush's first term (even though we controlled both houses of Congress for the six years preceding Bush's election).

83 posted on 11/05/2008 4:21:42 AM PST by Labyrinthos
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To: blondee123

Get real. No way ACORN made up the difference of 70,000 on 318,000 votes.

84 posted on 11/05/2008 4:24:04 AM PST by mad_as_he$$ (Nemo me impune lacessit.)
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To: truthfreedom

I wonder, do they like electricity in Philly? Or is that considered an evil, right-wing hate concept in those parts? :-)

85 posted on 11/05/2008 5:07:25 AM PST by Lexinom
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To: Lexinom

When electric rates go up next year who will all the bums in Philly blame? Theres no more Bush,no evil republican majority. Just good old Eddy and Obummer.

86 posted on 11/05/2008 5:24:54 AM PST by linn37 (Phlebotomists need love too.)
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To: linn37

They’ll blame the few remaining R- congresscritters.

87 posted on 11/05/2008 5:34:57 AM PST by Lexinom
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I am with you. I know we need change — we have got to dump the Iowa Caucus, NH, and Michigan frontloaded because not one of those three states tests who is going to win across the Country.

Now is the time to come up with a workable solution so that those three states do not determine who is going to be our candidate with the help of the media. BTW SCOTUS ruled in favor of our closed primary system in Oklahoma.

Firmly oppose the caucus sytem.

Where do we go from here? We need to start working on a solution like yesterday. I just know I am thoroughly disguated at what I see with Iowa and NH who do not represent Republicans but demand the candidates spend so much time there if a candidate doesn’t the media tanks them.

If you have any ideas, send them to me at

88 posted on 11/05/2008 5:59:49 AM PST by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER
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To: HamiltonJay

My Westmoreland County did not disappoint.
And they are actually pretty typical of PA outside the major urban areas.
But Murtha? Too many people are still programmed to vote for any jackass with a “D” who brings home some bacon.

89 posted on 11/05/2008 6:34:39 AM PST by silverleaf (Fasten your seat belts- it's going to be a BUMPY ride.)
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To: truthfreedom

Those coal miners are gonna need big checks from Uncle Sugar until they find new work in the “green job” economy zerO has promised.

But maybe the locals can go back to the 1890’s to 1930’s of going out on Sundays to pick coal lumps from the slag heaps for their home heaters.

90 posted on 11/05/2008 6:37:10 AM PST by silverleaf (Fasten your seat belts- it's going to be a BUMPY ride.)
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To: HamiltonJay

No sweat, HJ. I thank you for your optimistic posts through the election season which were great comfort and motivator to me.

91 posted on 11/05/2008 7:38:11 AM PST by Uncledave (Zombie Reagan '08)
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To: do the dhue

Kinda reminds me of a black widow spider.

92 posted on 11/05/2008 7:38:21 AM PST by Strzelec
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To: Claud
I had in mind is not the Pennsylvania that I knew, but then I realize that with all the other factors going on (Bush, bailout), I’m thinking this was more of a “throw the bastards out” vote rather than an endorsement of Obama.

I think the PA we knew has become a larger version of New Jersey. The trends there are not encouraging at all.

This election was all about terminal Bush fatigue and people buying into the hype of electing the first Black president. We've been spoon-fed this stuff for years and it finally paid dividends for the left.

In four years, things will look a lot different.
93 posted on 11/05/2008 8:01:26 AM PST by Antoninus (This, too, shall pass away.)
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To: Antoninus
This election was all about terminal Bush fatigue

I know a little about that myself!

94 posted on 11/05/2008 8:16:31 AM PST by Claud
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To: Antoninus

race baiting industry took a serious hit.

no more, US is a racist nation. That argument is DEAD.

(does this man we can fiannly pull BET off the lineup and replace with something more interesting like the “grass growing” channel?)

95 posted on 11/05/2008 8:21:40 AM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! and
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