Posted on 07/02/2009 9:30:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Sounds far-fetched and, to some, totally implausible. But the Republicans are losing potential candidates at a pace that is downright alarming if you believe in a healthy two-party system. The demise of John Ensign’s political career a few weeks ago and the surreal downfall of Mark Sanford last week is enough to send chills through the even the most optimistic Republican strategist. We know that of the 2008 crop, only Mitt Romney seems likely to stay on as a contender. The old stalwarts like Newt Gingrich may get a lot of press, but it is unlikely they can mount a real challenge to Obama in 2012. Yet, the presidential election of 2012 will be more than a simple coronation of Barack Obama if the economy stalls and there is no progress in two important areas: national security and healthcare.
Ballooning deficits and a sluggish economy could alter the mood of America by the time the 2010 mid-terms come up, giving hope to the GOP for the next presidential primary season. This is why Sarah Palin is maintaining a persistent media presence, whether it is debating David Letterman or being the biggest Republican draw on the lecture circuit. She clearly has her eyes set on the presidency.
The latest edition of Vanity Fair brings this possibility forward, though not in a favourable light. Journalist Todd Purdhom paints a picture of a woman with a narcissistic personality, who’s short on knowledge, disinterested in policy discussion, and not ready for primetime. In the end, the story says more about John McCain’s competence and character than it does about Palin, simply because he flubbed his most important decision as a presidential candidate. That said, Palin brought much needed energy to an otherwise lackluster campaign and, to this day, she energizes the base as no other candidate can. Could it be possible she may someday be a candidate for the presidency?
My experience tells me that no one should be written off in a hypothetical context. Barack Obama is proof positive of this. I still maintain that, without Bush, there is no Obama nomination. Palin is a street smart politician who has benefited from being underestimated most of her career. McCain’s disastrous choice may have been fatal to his electoral chances, but it brought Palin to the forefront of national attention. Since then, she has become a celebrity that transcends her party. However, if she is to be taken seriously and considered a viable contender, she needs to change the negative perceptions of her and develop a political profile that appeals to those outside her narrow base.
To do this, she must gradually reduce her exposure and begin to educate herself on the issues. She will not be ready for 2012 by remaining governor of Alaska and playing the celebrity. The GOP has too proud a tradition to have a re-run of the 2008 vice-presidential candidate. Also, the base Palin relies on for support no longer holds the sway it once did. Social conservatism is losing steam as a political movement thanks to the dubious habits of people like Gingrich, Ensign and Sanford, and the election of an African-American president as well as the increased attention paid to gay rights issues shows that Americans have begun to cast their old divisions aside. The future for the GOP lies with fiscal conservatism and strong national security policy—not with turning back the clock. Palin must embrace the values that created the Republican party in the first place—a belief in the individual, a belief in a limited role for the state, and a commitment to equality. The party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and (the pragmatic version of) Reagan is the path to a Republican resurgence. Palin is nowhere on that radar. She is all about celebrity status and controversy.
In the lead-up to July 4, Americans usually reflect on their great democracy. Overall, it is healthy and has shown resilience through the decades. But the Republicans have to become a viable alternative for this democracy to remain vibrant. So is Palin a real possibility for 2012 or 2016? Will she someday be a formal candidate for the presidency? Most definitely. But can she ever win? Based on what we have observed so far, I would say definitely not, though politics has been known to produce some strange developments.
“I would like to be wrong about the people who are so willing to trash Sarah Palin”
Why call it “trashing” just because a fellow Republican doesn’t think she can win against Obama?
See, that’s what liberals do: when you disagree with them they call you a “hater”.
Don’t do the same thing liberals do: respond to people who disagree with you by calling it “trashing.”
That’s the immature way to debate any issue.
DU wants you back to the group.
You can vote for your Obama, I will Vote for the conservative Republican, Gov. Palin.
So you are pro-life and you prefered Romney, I take it you want to ban having “gay marriage” to go along with your being so prolife.
As she starts campaign more and more, she will fight back and be able to better reshape the opinions of the mushy middle.Perhaps.
Same here. I sensed soon after she was chosen as McCain's running mate that she was tempering her statements on policy. In fact, I recall her making the point in one interview that it was her job to support the nominee's platform.
Our instincts were right about Palin, and that will become more clear as time goes by.
In all of counterpunch’s posts I haven’t seen where he calls Obama “my Obama”.
Don’t debate like a liberal.
John Parisella, the author, is an idiot, blind or recovering from a three year coma. The rats took over Congress starting in 2006 by running new candidates who were social conservatives on abortion and the Second Amendment where necessary.
If the GOP cuts loose that vote, then say hello to the latest party that joined the Whigs. The GOP's history of fiscal conservatism was lost with Bush the Younger.
“I sensed soon after she was chosen as McCain’s running mate that she was tempering her statements on policy.”
Think about what you just wrote.
When someone has rock solid hard conservative values why would they “temper” them for ANYTHING?
At this point if you have a candidate then push them but do not keep attacking a conservative front runner that is trying to stay a step ahead of Romney.
Everything that you have done on this thread only serves Romney, you can check the posting histories of most of your fellow travelers to verify that.
I have tried to squelch any attacks on any of the conservative possibles here at FR, you only see me going after the sleazy Romney but at this early stage I am trying to keep the rinos here from taking out any of the conservatives and especially the front running conservative.
And you are pro-life?
Once more, do not argue like a liberal. I am not “attacking” Sarah Palin. I voted for her. I have legitimate concerns that she will not be able to beat Obama in 2012. That doesn’t mean I am “trashing” her, “attacking” her, etc.
Do not falsely accuse.
So? Even Rush admits he’s wrong sometimes. :)
I’ve heard him sound distinctly embarrassed by some gaffes she’s made as well, like the standing-before-the-turkeys-being-slaughtered incident. LOL!
The person who's going to beat Barak ("No taxes on anyone making under $250k") Obama is Barak Obama himself. In fact, I would say he's just about done already.
0bama enjoys a 58% popularity rating.
Not exactly “crashing and burning” just yet.
Elections and popularity are all about personality.
After last year, that should be patently obvious to all.
Sarah Palin’s personality grates on most people.
0bama is smooth and makes the average uninformed person think that he must know what he’s talking about. Sarah Palin does the opposite.
This is the key to defeating 0bama. Outsmarting him at his own game. Expose him for the bullshitter he is. Watch his veneer crumble under an assault of knowledge and facts from someone who has a command of them.
I just don’t think Sarah Palin could rattle him. Not from what I’ve seen.
She would be the one who walks away shaken.
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