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The Government Will Default On Its Debts
The Market Oracle ^ | 11-02-2009 | Gary North

Posted on 11/02/2009 8:14:07 PM PST by blam

The Government Will Default On Its Debts

Economics / Great Depression II
Nov 02, 2009 - 08:01 AM
By: Gary_North

The governments of every major nation are going to default on their debts. There are two relevant questions: (1) How? (2) When?

Establishments around the world all deny this. They have gained power and wealth by means of the expansion of government. They have justified their success by insisting that the government-business alliance is the only way to establish economic growth and economic security for the masses. This claim rests on a more fundamental claim, namely, that an unhampered free market is destructive of economic stability and will inevitably lead to economic depression.

The Establishments are universally Keynesian. John Maynard Keynes' book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, was published in 1936. It defended in theory what all Western governments had been doing in practice for at least five years, namely, running huge deficits. Keynes became as close to an academic high priest as any modern scholar ever has. He was the apostle of national government debt. His ideas today are more influential than they were at his death in 1946. We live in the age of Keynes.

I can think of only one major Establishment figure who has broken with the Establishment on the question of the great default: Peter G. Peterson, who was the chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations until 2007. He now runs the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which focuses on the looming bankruptcy of the U.S. government. More than any other person of influence, he has warned of the bankruptcy of the Medicare/Social Security programs and their equivalents in the West.

Peterson a decade ago said that he had spoken with the major leaders of the West about the impossibility of funding these social programs. They all told him the same thing: "I will not be around at that time." In short, kick the can.

[snip]


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bho44; bhodeficit; bhoeconomy; default; economy; fourth100days; money; obama; recovery
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To: rabscuttle385; blam

I dont see how. Their debt is in their own currencies. Will the federal government default on it’s debt to the federal reserve?


41 posted on 11/03/2009 4:56:45 AM PST by sickoflibs ( "It's not the taxes, the redistribution is the government spending you demand stupid")
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To: tired1
>>Wars cost money, lots of money. Not disputing your point, just ask yourself how it’s going to be funded.<<

Guerrilla warfare. In the forests, in the swamps, in the mountains. For examples, see "Red Dawn", "The Patriot", "Mad Max", etc.

42 posted on 11/03/2009 5:24:10 AM PST by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: j-damn

Th Iranians do not have a cohesive army in the first world sense of an army. Remember how Saddam’s was a cobbled together mix of poorly motivated units.


43 posted on 11/03/2009 5:53:12 AM PST by bvw
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To: M. Espinola

The tax rate chart is intriguing. What is implied that after 1960 two forces that act like taxes really came to outweigh all others and ran out of control. One force is monetary inflation. The other — a novel intellectual speculation just come to my mind — is the “swag”. The bezzle.

The portion of economic wealth denominated in debt which is stolen by any means out of the treasury — hidden off-books entitlement programs, poor accounting, fraudulent accounting, outright theft.


44 posted on 11/03/2009 5:58:08 AM PST by bvw
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To: bvw
My scenario is this:

When the US announces it will not honor it's debt, a third party occupies the US in order to secure it's assets for the creditors of the US.

Some believe the third party will be the UN, others say NATO, still others say it will be the actual Chicoms, who will stage in Mexico (with the approval of Mexico in return for a cut of the spoils, namely lost territory along their border) and from there they will invade in a multi-pronged attack in an attempt to secure both California (the actual breadbasket of America) and the refineries along the Gulf coast.

45 posted on 11/03/2009 6:29:55 AM PST by I Buried My Guns
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To: I Buried My Guns

I think that scenario is unlikely, but not impossible.


46 posted on 11/03/2009 6:56:11 AM PST by bvw
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To: bvw
It makes for good reading.

"Good" being suubjective, but I read a lot of post-apocalyptic literature for free on the Net. I guess you get what you pay for!

47 posted on 11/03/2009 7:00:52 AM PST by I Buried My Guns
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To: joesjane

If they ALL default, doesn’t it kinda just wash itself?

If I owe Joe $1000 and Joe owes Frank $1000, and Frank owes me $1000, and nobody can pay, does it really matter?


48 posted on 11/03/2009 9:02:25 AM PST by RockinRight (Shove it down our throats in 2009, and we'll shove it up your a$$ in 2010.)
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To: I Buried My Guns

Assets could be sold off to pay the debt. The federal government owns most of the land in the West and much of it in the East.


49 posted on 11/03/2009 9:11:04 AM PST by MSF BU (++)
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To: JasonC

I was under the impression he was citing the claim of Keynesians.


50 posted on 11/03/2009 9:26:31 AM PST by Ultra Sonic 007 (To view the FR@Alabama ping list, click on my profile!)
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To: MSF BU
The federal government owns most of the land in the West and much of it in the East.

It's already been collateralized back at the collapse of Brettonwoods in the 1970s.

51 posted on 11/03/2009 9:28:50 AM PST by Carry_Okie (Grovelnator Schwarzenkaiser, fashionable fascism one charade at a time.)
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To: RockinRight

I don’t know:-( I consider myself fairly bright but I am getting confused by the financial news that keeps pouring out every day.


52 posted on 11/03/2009 9:32:45 AM PST by joesjane (The strength of the pack is the wolf - Rudyard Kipling)
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To: Soothesayer9

With nukes in play there will be nothing to split...

The default is coming though and it means people will have ti start being responsible for themselves and their extended families since there isn’t enough wealth to confiscate to plug the holes and at some point people will also just rebel against the taxes.....


53 posted on 11/03/2009 9:35:50 AM PST by misterrob (A society that burdens future generations with debt can not be considered moral or just)
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To: RockinRight

Seems to me you all 3 be broke, no savings to invest or spend.


54 posted on 11/03/2009 10:07:21 AM PST by east1234 (It's the borders stupid! My new environmentalist inspired tagline: cut, kill, dig and drill)
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To: joesjane

Glenn Beck covered this quite nicely. The first thing that goes is the dollar, the next are industries i.e. jobs, the third is the housing market, as there is no money and people default. It’s a domino effect.


55 posted on 11/03/2009 10:16:59 AM PST by nikos1121 (Praying for -16.)
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To: nikos1121

Here is my question. I am trying to pay off all debt so more of my income stays in the household. At the point where everything is paid off I am thinking about buying old silver coins in bulk plus more ammo. What else is there to invest in where your money is safe? I am afraid the paper will be worth nothing so I feel like I should be stocking up now.


56 posted on 11/03/2009 10:25:26 AM PST by joesjane (The strength of the pack is the wolf - Rudyard Kipling)
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To: blam

bttt


57 posted on 11/03/2009 10:36:20 AM PST by Jacksonian Grouch (God has granted us Freedom; we owe Him our courage in return)
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To: blam

bttt


58 posted on 11/03/2009 10:36:22 AM PST by Jacksonian Grouch (God has granted us Freedom; we owe Him our courage in return)
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To: I Buried My Guns
You have to check out the “Red Dawn II” movie senario.
59 posted on 11/03/2009 10:52:25 AM PST by johnny reb (When in the course of human events.......)
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To: Greysard

I agree with your scenario. I do not see central bank failure or default because politicians control central banks and money can always be printed. Currency collapses have been only cleansing tool to adjust reckless government policies. However, currency collapses have been limited to reasonably small countries with ready currency substitutes. The collapse of the dollar will devaste us but also probably many other countries. In addition, almost every country is engaged in reckless government policies. What currency will be the substitute for the collapse of the US dollar? If barter is necessary, there will be little trade especially at first. Every economy will decline substantially because of much lower trade. Can we have a world bankruptcy and start over? The bottleneck is the huge number of tax takers demanding their slice of the pie when there is no pie to slice. There are some grim scenarios that look like a trap for everyone.


60 posted on 11/03/2009 11:11:04 AM PST by businessprofessor
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