I certainly hope you're right. I just find it disturbing that a lib freak like Sestak has gotten as close as he has. Also fresh in my mind is the fact the now-dead John Murtha repeatedly disrespected his constituents to the point they should've booted his a$$ out in 2008 and polls at that time indicated they just might, but voters instead gave him an 18% margin of victory. Ditto for the former mayor of Hazelton, who led for months in poll after poll against Kanjorski, but ended up losing there as well. And, of course... always lurking in the shadows is the strong likelihood of vote rigging in Philly. If Toomey is to have a chance to win, it'll have to be by a large margin.
But, for some of the reasons you mention and others:
1) Toomey’s wildly successful fundraising
2) The fact that the DSCC has already spent their entire allotment of $1.6 million on coordinated State expenditures in PA, they spent it all on Specter, and the GOP hasn’t spent once cent of their allotment yet.
3) Sestak’s voting record
4) And most importantly Corbett’s, the Repub nominee for Governor of PA, strong showing in the polls to date should push Toomey over the top nicely.
Lastly, check out the latest Generic polls on RCP (link below), TIME has the Dems +1 among “Adults” and Bloomberg has the Repubs +8 among “Likely Voters,” two bad harbingers for the Dems’ chances this Fall.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html