[InterceptPoint]

There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.

37 were favorable to the Republicans

7 were favorable to the Democrats

[InterceptPoint]

Another Ping:

There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.

37 were favorable to the Republicans

7 were favorable to the Democrats

FreepMail me if you want on or off this list.

[InterceptPoint]

One More Ping:

There were a total of 44 updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.

37 were favorable to the Republicans

7 were favorable to the Democrats

FreepMail me if you want on or off this list.

[Vinnie]

Oh me of little faith.

The repubs have a way of snatching defeat from the hands of victory.

As an example..Elaine Marshall D,( an old bat BTW) is running against the incumbent Senator Richard Burr R. here in NC.

For at least a month she has been running TV spots tying Burr to Big Oil/BP/ oil spill. Very effective IMHO.

Burr has yet to run any ads let alone a rebuttal.
By the time he gets around to it , it will be too late. People will have made up their minds.

I think Burr is going down this election.

[SeattleBruce]

Thanks InterceptPoint for the excellent compilation and efforts. We all need to get as involved as we can in these critical House races!

If you ask me - WA 1 is IN PLAY:

http://www.redstate.com/bot2495/2010/07/13/meet-james-watkins/

Look at those numbers - Indies supporting James Watkins by 35% in mid July - those numbers will continue to trend. I think Watkins has a SERIOUS shot here.

http://www.watkinsforcongress.com/

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
09-Apr-10	199	204.77	210	0.18%	25
16-Apr-10	199	205.09	211	0.22%	26
22-Apr-10	200	205.28	211	0.37%	26
01-May-10	201	206.22	212	0.73%	27
08-May-10	201	206.33	212	0.66%	27
19-Jun-10	203	208.44	214	2.29%	29
10-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.43%	29
17-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.34%	29
24-Jul-10	203	209.25	215	3.37%	30

Here is the cumulative probability distribution of the simulation:

On the Senate side, there was little movement in the Rasmussen polls this week. Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.

• California 1: No change (R -7%)
• Colorado 2: No change (R +5%)
• Florida 1: No change (R +2)
• Illinois 2: No change (R -1%)
• Kentucky 1: +1% (R +8%)
• Missouri 1: No change (R +2%)
• Nevada 2: No change (R +2)
• Ohio 2: +2% (R +6%)
• Pennsylvania 2: +1% (R +7%)
• Washington 2: No change (R +3%)
• Wisconsin 1: No change (R +1%)

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (41), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
17-Jul-10	47	48.84	50	6.95%	7
24-Jul-10	47	48.95	50	7.69%	7

-PJ

[RachelFaith]

It has been in my tagline for two years. 2010 will be a 100 seat TSUNAMI! Forget the 30 seat nonsense. No one is saying 50 seats.... I say 100 Seats!

The single greatest realignment of power away from the Democrats since the Southern Delegation walked out to form their own nation in 1861!

[raybbr]

Thanks for the ping.

[1035rep]

Bookmarked. Good info and thanks for the ping!

[Free Vulcan]

One more for your list: Miller-Meeks in IA-02:

Polling data shows Miller-Meeks has made IA-2 one of the most competitive districts in the country

[Hush44]

Thanks, as always for ping, and all the work of the team!

A whoohoo for NY20, all the hard work of the campaign is starting to ‘show’ our headway. Last time, Sabato moved his ranking, this week 2 changes EP/Cook

NY20—
Chris Gibson for Congress
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/

FReepers, take a look at Chris, and send something if you can. We will turn this district back to RED

[TheRightGuy]

You are really missing the boat by excluding IL-9 from your list ... Joel Pollak’s challenge to Jan Schakowsky is begining to draw some national attention, and she’s starting to flail at him rather than igoring him as she has previous challengers ... Joel Pollak is the real deal.

[GailA]

From today’s Comic Appeal

From today’s Comic Appeal 54% of Tennesseans rank economy, jobs as the most important issue, followed by taxes, government spending, state budget shortfall, which 22% listed as most important issue or problem.

Republicans showing big improvements in turnout. 1 week after early voting Deidre Malone (D) posted to her facebook “have you voted yet? I normally wait until election day, but I’m getting a little concerned about early voting numbers, specifically D numbers. Who wants to join me and vote early?”

Saturday was again a disappointing day for D turnout, & strongest yet for R, with 2006 (52%) voters asking for D ballot 1858 45%. Huge reversal from numbers seen in ‘06-’08 when up to 70% asked for D ballots. and registered black voters often comprised 45% of a given day’s turn out. Over all turnout is 41,344 or 6.9% of the 600,518 registered voters in Shelby Co. If second week of early voting ends with traditional spike 90,00-100,00 votes are possible. Which would set a record turnout pn pace to surpass the ‘06 Aug primary, when nearly 159,00 voted.

[firebrand]

The latest chart.