Posted on 08/06/2010 9:59:02 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
A July 2009 paper by McLean, de Freitas and Carter showed that global average temperatures followed the Southern Oscillation Index (El Nino/La Nina) with a 5-8 months lag. The graph below shows that when the SOI is shifted forward by 7 months the two plots change direction together (except when volcanic eruptions caused cooling).
The chart above shows a projection of temperatures to Feb 2011. The chances are that the present warm spell will end quite suddenly before the end of this year. Over the next few months the SOI will indicate whether or not the cooling will continue beyond Feb 2011. Evidence from studies on past climate and sunspot cycle related effects gives a strong indication that the cooling will continue.
The paper is here and contains more graphs (see especially Figure 7)
Yes, but because the critics failed to understand the process (“derivative”) that was used to match the peaks and valleys in the two sets of data and derive the 7 month delay. Therefore they refused to accept that the above plot is actual temperatures and SOI. (They are). The response by the authors is here.
Jo Nova
The Response by the Authors (here) tells the story of how their paper was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR). Prior to publication on July 23 2009 they received glowing referee reviews, but afterwards the usual ClimateGate Team leapt into action for speedy damage control.
Within a couple of weeks Foster et al (Grant Foster, James Annan, Phil Jones, Michael Mann, Jim Renwick, Jim Salinger, Gavin Schmidt and Kevin Trenberth) submitted their critique of it to the editor of JGR Atmospheres. At the same time as this, it was posted on the Internet – formatted in JGR style, as if it had already been accepted by JGR.
About then new editor was appointed at JGR (Editor-2).
The editor asks for suggestions (from Forster) for unbiased expert reviewers and Forster et al suggested six. But all six were well known to Phil Jones. Jones comments to friends that “All of them know the sorts of things to say – about our comment and the awful original, without any prompting.” So much for independent impartial reviewers.
Editor-2 was advised twice of the existence of these Climategate emails but was not concerned. Nor was he concerned that the paper had been published already on the internet (on August 7), and worse, with the JGR page header, in clear breach of the JGR rules.
Editor 2 invites McLean et al to reply to the critique of them (as is the norm), but then rejects the McLean reply. There are few official guidelines that a reply has to meet, and there were no obvious problems with the science, yet McLean et al was not allowed to even reply to the criticism.
Yet the three reviews of our response that we were provided with were scientifically insubstantial. Only one reviewer mentioned the time lag that we established, despite its pivotal importance to our findings. And two reviewers focussed mainly on the derivative technique that Foster et al.’s comment falsely implied was the basis of our conclusions.
So the guys who pervert the system by suggesting friends as reviewers, and who breach the rules by falsely prepublishing, are given a free pass to the printing press, and the team who ought to be entitled to defend their own work are shut out for no clear reason.
This is the state of modern peer review: A few anonymous unpaid reviewers, whose names are suggested by the reviewees themselves; this is rigorous? Who are we kidding. We have tighter controls and better standards for peer reviewing Cab Sav.
The McLean et al response is published in full at SPPI (Appendix B is the reply to the rebuttal that was rejected – pages 21-25).
The short killer summary: The Skeptics Handbook. The most deadly point: The Missing Hot Spot.
Thanks for posting... Excellent information that adds to the evidence that we’re about to enter a period of global cooling instead of global warming.
None have considered the bullshittist theory of conductivity of oceanic currents. It is through these electromagnetic charges that electric current is conducted around the world and keeps our oppositely charged atmosphere in check.
It is only when the two apposing charges (oceanic and atmospheric) do not match in equal potential does the bullshit hit the fan.
Yes...Yes...I see it now. Man has caused this. We must repair the earth. Carbon credits and high taxes should do the trick. I love big brother. /s
Very interesting. Typical of government to support a program that causes the problems it intends to fix.
It is infuriating that these clowns are in charge. The enviro-whackos and government mandates have given us lower gas mileage, trans fats in cooking oil (when they declared saturated fat the enemy), low-flush toilets that clog and splash, higher energy costs, pitiful showerheads, energy-conserving appliances that don’t get things clean, an increase in malaria and an epidemic of bed bugs due to the elmination of effective pesticides, and just lately - dishwashing detergents that don’t work because they have removed the phosphates. So, if you are beginning to think you need a new dishwasher, you are wrong. It’s the new, crappy detergents.
Argentina Has Colder Winter Than Antartica, Spurring Record Power Imports
Article is from Bloomberg....nothing but a link.
Cruel aftermath of extreme cold in South America
Includes video link
3 Aug 10 - "Over 1 million fish (now updated to 6 million) and thousands of alligators, turtles, dolphins and other river wildlife are floating dead in numerous Bolivian rivers in the three eastern/southern departments of Santa Cruz, Beni and Tarija.
"The extreme cold front that hit Bolivia in mid-July caused water temperatures to dip below the minimum temperatures river life can tolerate. As a consequence, rivers, lakes, lagoons and fisheries are brimming with decomposing fish and other creatures.
Unprecedented
"Nothing like this has ever been seen in this magnitude in Bolivia. Inhabitants of riverside communities report the smell is nauseating and can be detected as far as a kilometer away from river banks.
Shortage of fish in markets
"River communities, whose livelihoods depend on fishing, fear they'll run out of food and will have nothing to sell. Authorities are concerned there will be a shortage of fish in markets and are more concerned by possible threats to public health, especially in communities that also use river water for bathing and drinking, but also fear contaminated or decaying fish may end up in market stalls. T
"In university fish ponds and commercial fisheries the losses are also catastrophic."
See entire article:
http://www.boliviabella.com/1-million-fish-dead-in-bolivian-ecological-disaster.html
Thanks to Walter H. Schneider for this link
YouTube video showing the masses of dead fish
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWIzUwZ1Spk&feature=player_embedded
"It's in Spanish," says Walter, "but dead fish are dead fish. It seems to me that no one has ever seen anything like it -- and not a word about it in the mainstream media in the Anglo-sphere." "First estimates were for one million dead fish," says Walter. "Now the number of dead fish and other water-dependent wildlife has increased to about six million." * * * As I've been warning for years (says Robert), I fear that we'll be fighting in the streets for food long before we're covered by ice. |
Wait a second... the end of 2010... won’t that be — the winter? ;’) :’D
Thanks E!
1 Million Fish Dead in Bolivian Ecological Disaster
Cold Kills!!
Keep up the good work! The Cabal that used to be our so called leaders will never be as fast on their feet at getting the word out as the people.
Roger that.
I predict that vast areas of the northern hemisphere will have colder weather in the nexr six months.
After about a ten year stretch of this new cooling trend lets see how hell bent those folks are in supporting the jerks in the IPCC and UN.
Oh noes! Does this mean we’re all gonna DIE?? Especially since this has been the “summer that wasn’t?”
The Chinese Coal Monster ( Some facts no carbon tax in China either)
China is trying to warm the world back up...see link at #37.
More news today from the Southern Hemisphere...it is not getting warmer:
http://www.iceagenow.com/Snow_in_Brazil-below_zero_in_the_River_Plate-tropical_fish_frozen.htm
Got to have that as a thread.....
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