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Sarah Palin's 2012 Opportunity
US News and World Report's Washington Whispers ^ | September 28, 2010 | Paul Bedard and Caitlin Huey-Burns

Posted on 09/28/2010 8:55:19 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The odds-on favorite to win the GOP presidential nod in 2012 is none other than Sarah Palin, according to a statistical formula developed by Villanova University Prof. Lara Brown. The professor's figuring is bad news for presumed hopefuls like Rep. Mike Pence, Sen. Jim DeMint, ex-Gov. Mitt Romney, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Gov. Haley Barbour, and former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton. Many simply joined the game too late, says Brown, author of the new book Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants, which studies every election since the founding. Others, like DeMint, are still brewing but won't be ready until 2016. As for Newt? "I don't think the GOP can forgive him," she says.

The book devises an "opportunism variable" based on the candidate's résumé to explain who wins the presidency and why. Palin has an advantage because she has been elected both mayor and governor. She also was a major party vice presidential nominee, giving her an enviable breadth of political experience. According to Brown, candidates who take risks and run for a variety of offices do well. It's even better if they lose a presidential race or two. "It takes about a run and a half to get there," Brown says. Pols "may think they can get it done in six months or a year, but [winning] will actually take them running, losing, and planting seeds," she says.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; congress; cultofpalin; demint; gingrich; iampalinhearmeroar; iquitarod; jonestownredux; mittromney; obama; odonnell; palin; palinbotsassemble; palinkoolaidfactory; palinlovefest; pdsfoundhere; rabstrollsagain; rino; romney; romney4romney; sarahmcpalin; sarahpalin; teaparty
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To: ReneeLynn
Some of the old ones will try. Heck some of the new ones here on FR will try, much like pissant and our Paul bot friend tonight.

The RINO field will be too divided, it may not be a blow out, but if she runs, I think she will win.

41 posted on 09/28/2010 9:23:36 PM PDT by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

42 posted on 09/28/2010 9:23:45 PM PDT by onyx (If you support Sarah and want on her Ping List, let me know!)
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To: EveningStar

43 posted on 09/28/2010 9:24:54 PM PDT by onyx (If you support Sarah and want on her Ping List, let me know!)
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To: onyx

Why would she want to take a cut in pay?


44 posted on 09/28/2010 9:25:04 PM PDT by EveningStar (Karl Marx is not one of our Founding Fathers.)
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To: rabscuttle385

Oh for crying out loud rabscuttle...the McCain Palin ordeal died long ago...you keep resurrecting old and dead news from clear back in March of all times. One would think you have a “Palin” obsession....you post more about her than you do your own candidate...sheesh! or any other candidate for that matter.

Note: Will not be responding to anything you might consider posting in reply. Just for the record. What’s worse than the Democrate trolls are those who knock their own obsession.


45 posted on 09/28/2010 9:25:44 PM PDT by caww
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

WHO IS YOUR CANDIDATE FOR 2012?!
*************

Right now it is Palin. There are other very good potentials this time around, but Palin leads, easily.


46 posted on 09/28/2010 9:27:01 PM PDT by Psalm 144 (Detente with the GOP nomenklatura - trust, but verify.)
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To: Lakeshark

Well, I’m hoping and praying. The last thing I want to hear Rush say in another election is ‘We are so screwed.’.


47 posted on 09/28/2010 9:27:29 PM PDT by ReneeLynn (Socialism is SO yesterday. Fascism, it*s the new black. Mmm Mmm Mmm.)
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To: EveningStar

Country first. She’s a patriot with a servant’s heart. Ever think that might be one of the reasons she’s earned all the money so she could afford to be POTUS? (DUH).


48 posted on 09/28/2010 9:28:33 PM PDT by onyx (If you support Sarah and want on her Ping List, let me know!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ain’t no stopping her now.


49 posted on 09/28/2010 9:30:29 PM PDT by PaleoBob
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To: ReneeLynn
Well, lets get through November with a resounding neutering of the Obamacrats. Sarah is a true star in this election, rallying the base and getting exposure for a lot of good candidates. Let's push them over the finish just so we can watch the Pelosi/Reid facial expressions late Nov 2nd. I'm thinking if she decides to run she won't announce until February at the earliest.
50 posted on 09/28/2010 9:31:34 PM PDT by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: ansel12; rabscuttle385

‘You really don’t know anything about politics do you, and how did you get “mentor” out of that?’

That was rather sad and inept wasn’t it? The first requirement for an effective hatchet job is a -sharp- hatchet. Oh well, one does one’s best I suppose.


51 posted on 09/28/2010 9:32:52 PM PDT by Psalm 144 (Detente with the GOP nomenklatura - trust, but verify.)
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To: EveningStar
You know this week's winning PowerBall numbers too?
52 posted on 09/28/2010 9:33:05 PM PDT by bwc2221
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To: ReneeLynn
But, right now, because of Rove and friends, I fear the old guard will try to give us anyone but Sarah. It’s not the Dems we have to worry about, it’s the old Republicans.

Wait until after this election when you see Romney hit the campaign road, and then watch as several other weak on conservatism types are advanced as his back up, there will be a multi front attack against Palin.

They will be trying to isolate her and then attack her from several angles and perspectives, with some (future veep choices) competition brought in solely to step on her message and niche, and to attempt to cut her out and push her into corners.

53 posted on 09/28/2010 9:33:12 PM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: onyx

There’s nothing wrong with just making money, you know.


54 posted on 09/28/2010 9:34:03 PM PDT by EveningStar (Karl Marx is not one of our Founding Fathers.)
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To: ansel12

I’m with #10. Ignore the riff raff.


55 posted on 09/28/2010 9:34:03 PM PDT by Aria ( "Remember, attitudes are contagious, so make sure yours are worth catching." Sarah Palin 9-18-2010)
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To: EveningStar

There’s nothing wrong with taking a pay cut to serve one’s country either!


56 posted on 09/28/2010 9:35:26 PM PDT by onyx (If you support Sarah and want on her Ping List, let me know!)
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To: bwc2221

4 8 15 16 23 42


57 posted on 09/28/2010 9:36:01 PM PDT by EveningStar (Karl Marx is not one of our Founding Fathers.)
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To: EveningStar

Why are you so bad at reading people?


58 posted on 09/28/2010 9:36:06 PM PDT by ansel12 ([fear of Islam.] Once you are paralyzed by fear of Mohammedanism...you have lost the battle.)
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To: onyx

That won’t happen.


59 posted on 09/28/2010 9:37:24 PM PDT by EveningStar (Karl Marx is not one of our Founding Fathers.)
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To: ReneeLynn

“But, right now, because of Rove and friends, I fear the old guard will try to give us anyone but Sarah. It’s not the Dems we have to worry about, it’s the old Republicans.”

You are so right. Since the instant Reagan left office.


60 posted on 09/28/2010 9:37:39 PM PDT by Psalm 144 (Detente with the GOP nomenklatura - trust, but verify.)
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