Latest Ratings Changes (Dems on suicide watch)

Cook Political Report ^ | 10/08/2010 | Charlie Cook

[Tennessean4Bush]

Latest Ratings Changes

Below are the 25 most recent race ratings updates from The Cook Political Report.

• NEW YORK | District 25: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (10/08/10)

• WISCONSIN | District 8: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• VIRGINIA | District 5: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• TEXAS | District 17: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• VIRGINIA | District 2: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• PENNSYLVANIA | District 3: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• OREGON | District 5: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (10/08/10)

• OHIO | District 15: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• OHIO | District 13: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat (10/08/10)

• OHIO | District 1: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• NORTH CAROLINA | District 2: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (10/08/10)

• NEW YORK | District 23: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (10/08/10)

• NEW JERSEY | District 3: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (10/08/10)

• MISSISSIPPI | District 4: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (10/08/10)

• MINNESOTA | District 1: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (10/08/10)

• LOUISIANA | District 2: Toss Up to Lean Democrat (10/08/10)

• KENTUCKY | District 6: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (10/08/10)

• ILLINOIS | District 11: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• GEORGIA | District 2: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (10/08/10)

• FLORIDA | District 24: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• FLORIDA | District 8: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• CONNECTICUT | District 5: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (10/08/10)

• COLORADO | District 4: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

• ARIZONA | District 8: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (10/08/10)

• ARIZONA | District 1: Toss Up to Lean Republican (10/08/10)

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Charlie Cook is a top rated political analyst, particularly in House races. Very, very important. Cook and Rothenberg, and some spot analysis by Barone, is what I look at when I am looking for the overall feeling of the way the House race is shaping up.

[InterceptPoint]

I am sure you have seen this already...

I have indeed. It really made my day.

And everyone should take note of the Charlie Cook commentary from today. Here's a key paragraph:

"Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status. It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon."

[WOSG]

Let’s recalibrate:
“Leans Dem” = 50/50 pickup chance
“Tossup” = Dem in big heap of trouble
“Lean Rep” = Dem is toast. buh bye

[Krodg]

Thanks for the help. I appreciate it.

[j-damn]

Goldwater didn’t face re-election to the Senate in 1972 and there were no serious primary challenges to Nixon that year.

????

[Tennessean4Bush]

Are you in or near Springfield, MO? I used to travel with my family every summer to Springfield from AL to see my grandparents. We drove through the Ozarks in Arkansas. Fond memories and scenery...

[MrB]

It was a [really] quick guess.
I wasn’t paying much attention in ‘72.

[TexasFreeper2009]

the only surge the Democrats are experiencing is at the toilet as they vomit up their lunch.

[Bridesheadfan]

‘92 and 2000 were close presidential elections. The October surprise would have to be far reaching and have an effect on dozens of candidates for it to make a significant difference in the results. Whether by 10 seat or 100, the Republicans are taking back the House in this election.

[RatsDawg]

:)

[CharlesWayneCT]

Two. One from lean to likely democrat, and one from toss-up to lean democrat. The rest are in our direction.

[austinaero]

Is that NY one the Barney Frank/Sean Bielat one? I am so praying for Sean. Last I read, he was only 10 points back.

[crazyhorse691]

Or. #5 incumbent is Kurt Schrader, one of those D ‘s who just received an NRA endorsement. The DNC has put out some attack ads aimed at his opponent that have now turned the race from leans D(imbulb) to tossup.

[Dan in Wichita]

Let’s hope you’re right, but....

Remember 2006? The Dems took the Mark Foley issue, magnified it 100x, ran with it 24/7, and used it to smear the entire Republican Party. The GOP was actually staging a comeback until the Foley story hit.

[Biggirl]

I do believe that people pretty much have had enough.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Can anyone in Ohio shed light on what is happening in Ohio 13? Ganley v. Sutton?

I know Ganley has been hit w/SEIU monies and a sexual harassment charge, so the communist loving Sutton is favored to win.

Is there no hope there?

[codercpc]

I have been waiting for polls on Wisconsin 8th, and there have been none (one in August, before the Republican primary even took place). I wonder what info Cook has that district voters don't.

I hope and pray he is right!

[Califreak]

LOL!

On suicide watch and chewing their own limbs off to get away from Lord Zero!

[Gumdrop]

Happy to see Minnesota House District 1 now leaning Democrat (was likely Democrat before)! This is a conservative district and the seat that Gil Gutknecht held before the 2006 Democratic tide swept him out of office. Tim Walz is a Democrat incumbant who masquerades as a reasonable moderate, but he votes liberal nearly every time. Go, Randy Demmer, Go!

[Truthsearcher]

Arizona 8 is the Kelly vs Gifford race. McCain won this district and so did GWB.

I think it’s better than a toss up right now.