Posted on 10/14/2010 12:57:35 PM PDT by FTJM
If conservatives had to name just one Senate race they’d most want to win, the election in California would have to come at the top of the list. Barbara Boxer remains in the lead, albeit within the margin of error, according to the latest Rasmussen poll — and still below the 50% line incumbents need to cross. The race has changed little over the last few weeks:
Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer continues to hold the slightest of leads over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina in California’s U.S. Senate race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California shows Boxer with 49% support and Fiorina with 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided. …
Just over a week ago, Boxer, who is seeking a fourth six-year term, posted a similar 49% to 45% lead over Fiorina, a former CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Boxer has held a small lead in every survey but one since February with 42% to 49% of the vote. Fiorina, in those same surveys, has earned 38% to 47% support.
Rasmussen calls it a toss-up, but Fiorina needs to start showing some momentum if she wants to catch the incumbent. Barack Obama won California by a 24-point margin, 61/37, and still has a 57/42 job approval rating among likely voters. Boxer still has a net positive favorability rating, 50/46, which matches up with Fiorina’s 49/45 almost exactly.
The issues don’t provide a good indicator of how late-deciding voters will break in either direction. Repealing Obamacare is narrowly popular, 49/45, but half of all Californians approve of the federal mandate, 50/46. The only real bright light in the issues questions is on jobs, with only 17% of voters thinking that the job market has improved, compared to 40% who believe it has worsened and 41% who think it hasn’t changed at all. If Fiorina can tie Boxer to the jobs issue, she may squeeze out a victory in this race.
Fiorina’s statement in response to this poll drives right at that issue:
“Today’s poll confirms that, after spending more than $10 million on baseless, political attacks against Carly, Barbara Boxer still can’t convince voters she’s deserving of another six-year term in Washington. With a demoralized base, Californians suffering under the weight of 12.4 percent unemployment and the broken promise about the ‘help and hope’ Boxer said would come as a result of the economic stimulus plan, it’s no surprise she is now resorting to scare tactics in her continued desperation to save the one job she cares about: her own.
“Californians are entirely focused on the economy – and the fact that Barbara Boxer hasn’t been able to deliver results for the people of this state and is now trying to distract voters from that dismal record only underscores just how out of touch she has become during her 28 years in Washington. And as our campaign continues to draw a sharp contrast between Boxer’s record of failure with Carly’s proven record of leadership in creating jobs and her fresh perspective on economic growth, we expect Boxer’s support to falter and Carly’s to continue growing.”
That support should have been faltering a few weeks ago. Thus far, while Boxer doesn’t seem secure, she hasn’t lost much ground yet, either. Fiorina needs to step up the campaign another level to push her line of attack.
Tally ho! Ignore the polls! They don’t mean rubbish this year.
If California elects Boxer again then they deserve to be taxed till bankrupcy.
Brown and Boxer - idiot Marxists destined to regulate, tax, fee, unionize and open border California to sub-Sahara Africa status.
And the unions continue to pay the freight for their elections putting unionized state workers ahead of the businesses that pay for their bloated pay, benefits and pensions.
The polling needle in this race have never moved in either direction which tells us that, baring some last-minute change, this race hinges almost exclusively on turnout. This is anyone’s race.
If Boxer keeps her seat, then Boehner and Reid’s replacement needs to make sure that every single bill under consideration in both chambers has $0.00 in it for Kalifornia. Make them stand on their own feet and get them off our backs.
The opportunity to change direction is there, if they'll take it. Otherwise, they're stuck with Wicked Witch of the West for at least another six.
Agreed, and I think the turnout will favor the Republicans.
California will be just hitting the peak voting period (in the late afternoon and evening) when the polls close on the East Coast. As various news organizations start calling the outcome of the Congressional races, the magnitude of the rout will become obvious.
It will demoralize Democrat voters in California, and they won't bother to go to the polls. Some of them may even step out of line and go home.
I don’t know if conventional wisdom has changed. But generally speaking, when the incumbent is consistently polling below 50%, that usually means trouble for the incumbent.
They'll find out on November 2nd when they drag themselves to the polls through mounds of broken glass and New Black Panthers.
The GOPers have a lot of work cut out for them. Ignorance and idiocy are rampant out there.
Ding, ding ding! We’ve got a winner! I’ve been pushing this among friends as my theory for a couple weeks. I think most all the wobblers in the far west go to the GOP for this reason.
This is why I’m leaving California soon.
Coupled with a scant 3% undecided, unless either candidate makes a strong closing pitch this race will most certainly turn on which campaign has the best GOTV (get-out-the-vote) effort.
I personally don't think that the DBM will call any races before 11 PM EST unless the RAT wins.
I don't think they will have any choice.
Fox News will start calling the outcome of races, and the rest will have to do so to keep their remaining viewers from bolting.
MSNBC may be hanging on and crying in their beer, and their minuscule audience will stay with them to avoid reality (not to mention all the FReepers tuning in for the comedy value). But, the rest will fall into line behind Fox.
If it is close Boxer will win. The unions and the Democrat power structure that controls California will make sure of it. The mantra for the Dems will be “vote early and often”. And it will be in Spanish.
I hope you are right.
I have fond memories of the night that President Reagan handed Peanut Brain his head and he conceded while there were hours to go in California.
Schwarzi’s Cullyfohrneeyans, women-and-minorities, unions, Jews, gays-and-lesbians, the coastal, and the Northeast- reliable Democrat blocs, all.
I agree. The crackpot RATS in that state want their goofy green energy, high state pensions and illegals and yet want the other states to bail them out.
Screw them. Give that state back to Mexico if they re elect Boxershorts and Moon Beam.
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