CNN/Time Poll: All tied up in race for Ohio governor (I know its CNN but Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!)

CNN ^ | 10/20/10 | CNN Political Unit

[DM1]

(CNN) - The gubernatorial battle in Ohio is deadlocked, according to a new poll. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Wednesday also indicates that the Republicans hold a wide lead in the fight for the state's open Senate seat.

Forty-eight percent of likely voters in Ohio say that if the election were held today, they'd vote for Gov. Ted Strickland, with 47 percent saying they'd vote for former Rep. John Kasich, the GOP challenger, and 3 percent are undecided. Strickland's one-point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.

..... Kasich held a seven-point advantage in a CNN/Time poll conducted a month ago.

...

... Besides being a battleground in this year's midterm elections, Ohio is also in the political spotlight since it's a crucial state in the fight for the White House.

According to the survey, 53 percent of likely voters in Ohio disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in the White House, with 42 percent saying they approve of how he's handling his duties. The president's approval rating rises to 45 percent among a wider sampling of registered voters, with 49 percent saying they disapprove.

....

[OrioleFan]

It’s all demographics. The polling organizations are companies and they want repeat business. If CNN says “we want to show Stricklin up by 1”, that’s what they will get. The starting assumption may be that 55% of the state is DemocRAT. Based off that, the sample size will be skewed in the direction of DemocRAT leaners. If I were Stricklin, knowing this, I’d fold up the tent.

[xzins]

Here’s my sense, and I support Kasich. I’m an Ohio voter and I’ve gotten daily cardboard flyers in my mailbox from the Strickland camp that totally bash Kasich.

Daily I see TV ads bashing Kasich.

What have I seen from Kasich?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing. (A few yardsigns)

He came to our town, I went to see him, he did extremely well, BUT he’s not fighting back in the media.

Maybe he’s broke, but I don’t think so. Maybe he’s got a strategy of unleashing a media firestorm shortly, but that strategy has allowed his opponent to catch up, so now Kasich has to CHANGE minds instead of keeping them in his camp.

It’s that damned republican belief in being nice while the democrats go for the throat. Last night Hannity had frank klutz on saying how much voters love nicey-nice. He has lines on a focus group joystick to “prove” it.

BS. The ones who answer phones and pull voting levers buy the info they get from attack ads.

Kasich will stand up and fight or he will lose.

[NeoCaveman]

This is the first poll anywhere that shows Strickland north of 46%

I doubt it.

[kabar]

The MSM wants to get out the Dem vote. Watch next week’s poll to see if they want to maintain any credibility.

[Buckeye Battle Cry]

SHOW ME the internals. This is bunk and they know it.

[LS]

Virtually all the polls have had this race tightening as I think ALL races are, save Portman’s. Part of this is to be expected: the dems finally got desperate, ran ads, and so on. Part of it is that Strickland has not been horrible, and has basically done nothing. So there is little negative to run on. He appeased Cleveland by standing up for the LeBron banner. He closed some charter schools, but honestly they weren’t performing well. He oversaw the exodus of GM and NCR from Dayton-—but so did everyone else, including the freakin’ unions. I’m not defending him but showing how this was never a slam-dunk race. That said, I think Kasich will pull it out on sheer turnout.

[bereanway]

Predictable as the sun rise. AS election day approaches it’s time to start cooking the books. Expect to see every race in the country tighten up and every disaffected minority voter group become highly motivated crusaders ready to crawl a mile over broken glass and confront 65 yo grandmas carrying nightsticks in order to save the dream. We cannot go back to the failed policies of the past, the dream must not die!

[LS]

Every race is tightening, and this was to be expected. Did you really think the Dems would just “listen to the people?” So they are desperately trying to energize their base, scare blacks and old people, etc. The money is being spent, as I knew it would.

[Mikey_1962]

Over sampling Democrats by overestimating Democrat turnout.

Its not new. Trust Rasmussen:

John Kasich (R) 48%
Ted Strickland (D) 45%
Some other candidate 3%
Not Sure 4%

[popdonnelly]

I don’t believe any left-leaning outfit.

[SC_Pete]

Exactly. The theme among leftist pollsters is : THE RACE IS TIGHTENING, DEMS ARE CLOSING THA GAP, HOPE AND CHANGE IS BACK!!! They started this about a week ago, when there was not one iota of evidence to suppport it.

Crime Statistics.

[TonyInOhio]

A few things to consider.

First, I'm certain the race has narrowed, and I think Kasich needs to be more aggressive in the next couple of weeks.

However, this CNN/ORC poll has hidden the breakdown of the sample by political party - there is no way to determine the R/D/I percentages, and that is absolutely the key to this year's races. My guess is they are oversampling Democrats by a sizeable number, but they don't provide that information.

Finally, the CNN/ORC poll isn't very accurate, generally:

The CNN/ORC poll was ranked 17th out of 20 polls in the 2008 race and was effectively as bad as the worst of them.

My guess is that Kasich has a lead of three or four points, but he'll have to work to expand that lead.

[LonePalm]

Thank you for remembering.

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

[randita]

This is also about ratings. If the races are all but over except for the counting, who will tune in to watch the election coverage? In the next week, all the networks, inc. Fox will find all the reasons in the world to make the election seem much closer than it is and ignore the countervailing data.

[bereanway]

If that report card is to be believed I’m going to have to rethink which pollsters to trust. Ras is near the bottom of the pile with PPP much better and ABC near the top?

[Kahuna]

The Moron in chief has made 12 visits to Ohio this year because he knows that he must carry this State in 2012 to win reelection. If John wins, the rats will be hard pressed to steal future elections try as they might.

The outcome of this race will have historic implications IMO.

[Whenifhow]

What have I seen from Kasich?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing. (A few yardsigns)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Ads are running all the time in our area.

John Kasich for Governor of Ohio Television Ad: “Busted”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LKqrrVLcvs

Search on You tube:
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Kasich&aq=f

[xzins]

Time he did more, and time he started bashing back.

As I said, I don’t see it.

Maybe that’s cause I generally have FoxNews and TBS on. Maybe he’s just chosen not to run ads where I tend to watch.

Whatever the case may be, I’m seeing anti-Kasich stuff, and I’m not seeing Kasich’s stuff.

STrickland is a wasteland for jobs, and he’s not getting pounded on it like he should be in my estimation.

[wardaddy]

Races are like cancer...they don’t sit still.

Tightening is sorta common as they close and CNN’s polls are not always outliers...not as bas as say Public Policy Polling.

[wardaddy]

these tight races will come down to who has the Big Mo at the close kids.

who coined that term 20 plus years ago now?

Lee Atwater (God bless Him) I think...The Big Momentum