Posted on 10/22/2010 7:24:59 AM PDT by WebFocus
The California Senate race will be decided in Los Angeles County and not in my more liberal neck of the woods, but as someone who has a sort-of-front-seat view, I can try to answer the question of whether the Golden State is in play.
Short answer: yes.
For openers, check the most recent PPIC poll. It has Boxer ahead by five (43–38 percent). That’s striking distance, folks. Moreover, 43 percent is a particularly anemic number for a three-term incumbent who (a) had only token primary opposition (sorry, Mickey Kaus); (b) is running both positive and negative ads day and night; and (c) faces an opponent who is unabashedly conservative (pro-life, pro-drilling, anti-stimulus) in a notoriously deep-blue state.
Add to that the Republicans’ emphasis on a strong ground game in California (registering voters, targeting independents, maxing out GOP turnout) — as opposed to the Democrats, who are struggling at organization (that’s why Bill Clinton was out here last week) — and it’s clear that Boxer-Fiorina could go late into the night.
Besides, if things were hunky-dory in the Golden State, why would President Obama be coming to Los Angeles tomorrow to campaign? He’ll be at USC again — expect another traffic jam.
That said, there is a problem for Carly Fiorina, and it’s her weaker-than-expected connection with California women. That same PPIC poll gave her only 32 percent of the women’s vote, the same as GOP gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman. For Fiorina, it’s a 16-point gender gap, which figures to an 8 point deficit in the total vote.
That’s curious, since Fiorina in her stump speech talks about the tough climb from receptionist to CEO and her very personal feelings about the “life” issue (her husband’s mother was tempted to abort her son; unable to have children herself, Fiorina believes strongly in adoption). It makes for a very moving connection — the antithesis of the all-business, mostly centrist Whitman campaign. Plus, it’s Pink October and Fiorina is a recent breast-cancer survivor.
One final note on California Senate history — and, unfortunately, it’s a sour note. The 1994 Republican “wave” election resulted in a pickup of eight Senate seats for the GOP, yet Dianne Feinstein won that year. In 1980, the same year the GOP gained twelve Senate seats (and a California Republican won the presidency, for cryin’ out loud), Alan Cranston defeated Prop 13 co-author Paul Gann.
— Bill Whalen is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.
That last minute Obama fly-in to save Coakley's disastrous campaign did the trick for Brown (/snix).
May it do the same for Boxer, Murray, Reid, and all the other endangered Dems.
"That's far enough. Don't stand too close to me, Obama. And don't mention
mosque, Democrat, h/care, amnesty, cap/trade and my name in the same
sentence."
California politicians are like a bad horror movie.
It is my far removed analysis that Pelosi and Boxer will sail to victory yet again. Pelosi because her district is full of neurotic retards, Boxer because everyone in the state with half a brain has already left. The remainder of people with unmovable assets know, that if they know what is good for them, they best support her stinking a$$.
Communism is a bitch gambit, and there are lots of people playing this strategy out there.
It all depends on how much California’s conservatives and GOPers want Boxer out. If they want it badly enough, they’ll turn out in maximum numbers, which can make a difference if they’re serious. As noted in the article, California has a history of keeping itself firmly chained to the floor at the feet of the liberals with the re-election of Cranston in 1980 and Feinstein in 1994, so that state doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
California... as you are handed the key to your shackles on Nov 2, what will you do with it?
“California... as you are handed the key to your shackles on Nov 2, what will you do with it?”
Being a Californian surrounded by liberal elitists in Northern California, I fully expect our next Governor to be (the old Gov) Brown, Pelosi and Boxer to win again, Prop 23 to be rejected and MJ to be made legal. What a wasteland California has become.
I escaped from there when I joined the Air Force in 1976 and never moved back. Unfortunately, some of my family members are stuck there, behind the tofu curtain.
We turned the checkbook, the equity line of credit and all the credit cards over to a bunch of spend-thrift ninnies and so here we are... you have to wonder what's next!!!
Probably a bunch of young extravagant gay blades living on trust funds who've never worked, let alone manage or run a business!!!
Over the past 18 years I've overheard many men saying:"It's probably time to let the girls have a swing at it since they're always clamoring that they could be doing better." So now they've (liberal libbies) swung and struck out and so now we've got a couple of not quite so liberals running under the pink elephant banner!!! OMG!!!
Kalifornians remain what they are because they are shielded from the truth by politicians who perpetually punt the problem down the road. SOLUTION: Bite the bullet one election cycle, give the Dems everything and let the whole thing implode as it certainly would - a quick death for socialism - sort of a French/Greek solution. What we have at the moment is a slo-mo ‘going Galt’ with business leaving the state for safer places. I fully realise that everyone would suffer under this scenario, but we are living off the fat of the land now?
Kalifornians remain what they are because they are shielded from the truth by politicians who perpetually punt the problem down the road. SOLUTION: Bite the bullet one election cycle, give the Dems everything and let the whole thing implode as it certainly would - a quick death for socialism - sort of a French/Greek solution. What we have at the moment is a slo-mo ‘going Galt’ with business leaving the state for safer places. I fully realise that everyone would suffer under this scenario, but we are living off the fat of the land now?
“Over the past 18 years I’ve overheard many men saying:”It’s probably time to let the girls have a swing at it since they’re always clamoring that they could be doing better.” So now they’ve (liberal libbies) swung and struck out and so now we’ve got a couple of not quite so liberals running under the pink elephant banner!!! OMG!!!”
Here in formally elite Wino Country, the formally elite NAGs have thrown Meg and Carly into the same bag as Sarah Palin.
We can only hope to never see Moonbeam as governor again and to say goodbye to the Marin Uber Liber, da Dumb as rocks, Boxer.
Stay on the road, Obammie. We like you there
” “Over the past 18 years I’ve overheard many men saying:”It’s probably time to let the girls have a swing at it since they’re always clamoring that they could be doing better.”
BOXER
FEINSTEIN
SNOWE
cOLLINS
MEG
CARLY
Bono
Not too many Michelle Bachmanns out there.
Time to give the guys another shot ;-)
” “Over the past 18 years I’ve overheard many men saying:”It’s probably time to let the girls have a swing at it since they’re always clamoring that they could be doing better.”
BOXER
FEINSTEIN
SNOWE
cOLLINS
MEG
CARLY
Bono
Not too many Michelle Bachmanns out there.
Time to give the guys another shot ;-)
Ya gots ta be careful, lest ya puts me, Grampa Dave and yerself into the massagenista bag, ya know... (grin)
Deja Vu Vu?
;-)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.