5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House

New York Times ^ | November 2, 2010 | Nate Silver

[Maceman]

While our forecast and a good deal of polling data suggest that the Republicans may win the House of Representatives on Tuesday, perhaps all is not lost for the Democrats. Here’s one possible scenario for how things might not end up as expected.

It was hard to pinpoint exactly when in the night things started to go wrong. But at some point, a trash can was knocked over in John A. Boehner’s office in the Longworth House Office Building. A half-hour later, a hole was punched in the wall at the Republican National Committee’s headquarters.

Republicans didn’t really have much reason to be upset. They were going to pick up somewhere between 29 and 34 House seats from Democrats, pending the outcome of a recount or two and the receipt of mail ballots in some Western states. They gained five Senate seats from Democrats, and won the governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida, among many other states. It had been a wave election, indeed — but a wave on the magnitude of 2006, rather than 1994.

. . .

1. The cellphone effect. This one is pretty simple, really: a lot of American adults (now about one-quarter of them) have ditched landlines and rely exclusively on mobile phones, and a lot of pollsters don’t call mobile phones.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Yes, those angry criminal youth of the new generation. Will come to the rescue, by attacking and vandalizing respected Senators offices and headquarters. Now there is real and lasting integrity for this next generation to be proud of.

Spread fear, hatred and act out violent attacks to prove just who is in charge. This is a sure sign that the Democrats are still in control by golly!

It's those cell phones that will rally the vote. Those “unpolled” voters who carry out a world of their own in secret. What they have not worked for or planned for, they steal. It's always the other guy who has more than he needs, so he owes them and will pay; One way or another! Especially cell phones and free high speed Internet access.

That is the key, according to the New York Times. Taking Society to a whole new level that others dare not go!

[Daveinyork]

I wasn’t joking. I know how the dems operate. I live in a city that they run. A city councilwoman used to go the a local nursing home, and fill out absentee ballots for alzheimers patients. They were totally bogus, because the first floor of the nursing home is the polling place. but she got away with it, until the county, which is Republican, said that they would not accept stacks of absentee ballots delivered by the same person.

[Logic n' Reason]

While I agree with the "cell phone effect", I don't necessarily agree with the analysis of it.

I'm well beyond 60, yet I don't have a landline; I use my cell phone exclusively. I know many folks of my age that are in exactly the same mode of operations.

It is both disturbing and distressing the old Razzzz hasn't figured that out yet.

His landline polls are - by definition - biased as hell. In an undergraduate marketing class, if he designed a poll with this kind of bias, he'd receive an "F".

[litehaus]

"A city councilwoman used to go the a local nursing home, and fill out absentee ballots for alzheimers patients."

Sounds like DELRAY BEACH 'Flor ee duh' to me....LOL...

[Big E]

Not buying it. The whole premise of their 5 reasons was, 1,2,3,4: the polls are wrong, and 5 was the Dems have a superior ground game, which might also be NYTimes doublespeak for voter fraud. I told myself in 2006, the GOP wouldn’t lose the House, the polls were wrong, because they always oversample Dems, etc, etc, and whadya know they were right.

I told myself in 2008, there wouldn’t be another blue flood, the polls are wrong, and whadya know, they were right. I think they’re right this time, too, so I would expect to take the House. I am hoping to get the Senate, too.

[paudio]

You are right, of course. I grow respect for him. He provides a window of what might go well for the Dhims, but he also has written before what might go for very well for the Republicans.

[ontap]

In the end Nate when you go to sleep Freddy Krueger will still be there!!!

[PeteB570]

Ha, you are 100% CORRECT!

My mom worked the evening shift for decades in the same nursing home. Each election the day shift shift would “help” the droolers fill out their ballots - 100% D-rat.

She complained every year but the county elections board (D run) saw no problem with it - every vote should be counted.

Except mine when I was in the military - something always happened to my absentee ballot.

[Jane Long]

The left might be living on food stamps and welfare but they all have iPhones.... Highly unlikely to see them bothering to vote. They have their phone, their flat screen, their internet connections all paid for and they know that stuff is not going away.

Unless they get constant texts on their Bammyphones to "GOTV" to keep the free stuff coming.

[jazminerose]

Is this a retread from 2000? Back to the cell phone thing, really?

[gthog61]

Okay, I get the obvious 3 - lie, cheat, steal.

What were the other 2?

[pburgh01]

My theory for why Nate is full of it: Nate’s yoga instructor convinced Nate that drinking his own urine is therapeutic.

Nate has a hard time coming to grips that his Mom and Dad named him Nathan and it was just too much to bear, to be a walking effeminate Jewish stereotype.

[jazminerose]

Good point. In the early 2000’s, it was assumed only kids didn’t have landlines. These days, a lot of people have let go of their landlines for budget reasons. I’d be rid of mine if I didn’t need a hardline for business.

I wouldn’t bet the farm on retreaded theories from 10 yrs ago.

[Seattle Conservative]

You’re right. Here’s what he wrote re what might go right for Republicans:

5 Reasons Republicans Could Do Even Better Than Expected
By NATE SILVER
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/5-reasons-republicans-could-do-even-better-than-expected/

Also, here’s a scorecard, by hour of polls closing, that I think is interesting:

The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide
By NATE SILVER

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/the-ultimate-hour-by-hour-district-by-district-election-guide/

[Madame Dufarge]

Brought to you by Nate Silver, member in good standing of the allegedly defunct Journolist.

[Notary Sojac]

Yep, you beat me to the post. This article is totally reminiscent of the last few days before the 2008 election here on FR.

The "Bradley effect" and the "Pumas" were supposed to beat Zero, and all the polls were wrong...

[Bean Counter]

Woulda, coulda, shoulda, mighta, oughta...sounds like a lot of wishful thinking, and I hope someone puts this guy on suicide watch sometime today before the results start coming in...

[Logic n' Reason]

In the early 2000’s, it was assumed only kids didn’t have landlines. These days, a lot of people have let go of their landlines for budget reasons.
I wouldn’t bet the farm on retreaded theories from 10 yrs ago.

What I can't understand is why the "reputable" pollsters have not accounted for this. It really does skew their results.

Heck, I often visit "assisted living" and "old folks homes"....you should see the number of cell phones in those places. They are a real godsend to those folks...no more paying for landlines...no more begging to use "payphones" or hallway phones.

They - as one group - are delighted with cellular technology! And...they are complete "un-polled".

One has to wonder how many other "special interest" groups there are just like these fine "mature Americans"!

[domeika]

The only thing that could pull this out for the rats is fraud. The "bread and circuses" (i.e. "where mah check") crowd is going to stay home. Obama didn't buy them cars or houses and they are ticked about that. On the other side of the neighborhood of derrangement is the anti-war crowd that Obama pandered to by telling them that he would get the troops out of Iraq and Afg, and close Gitmo. Well, that didn't happen either, so they are having their own hissy fit by not voting, or voting for the opposition out of spite. Then there is the union vote. Well, the moon-battery of government employee unions may turn out to vote to ensure jobs and bennies into perpituity, but the rank and file union members of UAW, Teamsters, etc will be voting R. They don't want socialism, no matter how it's packaged (As a former UAW member, I can say that with confidence).

So I guess it all comes down to the rat "Dig Up The Vote" effort.

[hosepipe]

Ugh OH!.... Nate has a "tell"..
Hes telegraphing his hand...

Voter fraud is evident more in some districts than in others..
"Some" of the elections WILL BE compromised..
It will be an interesting pursuit "to find them"..
And find the cards up "some" sleeves..

Can anyone say, "Congressional Investigations into voter fraud in Chicago?"..
I KNEW YOU COULD...