Posted on 11/02/2010 1:25:42 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
It's been a fun ride watching our list of Vulnerable Dems grow and the predictions of our six "Experts" move in the GOP direction week after week.
But today is the day when we cash in on all of the hard work. I hope everyone has voted and is ready for the Super Bowl of midterm elections. Grab your popcorn, settle back in that easy chair and watch the Dems squirm while they explain to all of us that it really is just anger over the "Bush Recession" and not Obama's policies that is causing the American public to turn on their party and vote them out of power in the House of Representatives and perhaps in the Senate as well. You can also expect to hear the lame "We just didn't do a good job selling Obamacare" argument ad nauseum on CNN and MSNBC. And you must watch those channels tonight - they are way more fun than Fox on election nights like this.
This thread is focused on the competitive House races that we have been tracking for the better part of a year - the races on the KeyHouseRaces Master List. If you looking for general election news covering the Senate or the Governor races your best bet will be the Election Day 2010 LIVE THREAD.
We will be generating update summaries of the House races that have been called by trustworthy sources and will post those updates on KeyHouseRaces.com and here on FR. We will also be posting on Twitter as we see races that are on our list where the winner has been called.
We will be monitoring FR for our data so we are hoping that Free Republic stays up and that Freepers will be doing their normal good job of posting the latest poll results.
Just for reference, here are the Poll Closing Times via SwingStateProject:
| KeyHouseRaces Master List | ||||||||||||
| District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Tier 2 | Experts | District | Call | Pacific | |||
| IN | 2 | Incumbent D | Joe Donnelly | Jackie Walorski | Leans D | IN | 2 | 3:00 | ||||
| IN | 7 | Incumbent D | Andre Carson | Marvin Scott | Longshot | Safe D | IN | 7 | 3:00 | |||
| IN | 8 | Open D | W. Trent Van Haaften | WIN | Dr. Larry Bucshon | Likely R | IN | 8 | Fox | 3:00 | ||
| IN | 9 | Incumbent D | Baron Hill | WIN | Todd Young | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | Fox | 3:00 | ||
| KY | 3 | Incumbent D | Jon Yarmuth | WIN | Todd Lally | Tier 2 | Likely D | KY | 3 | Fox | 3:00 | |
| KY | 6 | Incumbent D | Ben Chandler | Andy Barr | Leans D | KY | 6 | 3:00 | ||||
| KeyHouseRaces Master List | ||||||||||||
| District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Tier 2 | Experts | District | Pacific | ||||
| FL | 2 | Incumbent D | Allen Boyd | Steve Southerland | Leans R | FL | 2 | 4:00 | ||||
| FL | 8 | Incumbent D | Alan Grayson | WIN | Daniel Webster | Leans R | FL | 8 | Fox | 4:00 | ||
| FL | 22 | Incumbent D | Ron Klein | Allen West | Toss-Up | FL | 22 | 4:00 | ||||
| FL | 24 | Incumbent D | Suzanne Kosmas | WIN | Sandy Adams | Leans R | FL | 24 | Fox | 4:00 | ||
| FL | 25 | Open R | Joe Garcia | David Rivera | Leans R | FL | 25 | 4:00 | ||||
| GA | 2 | Incumbent D | Sanford Bishop | Mike Keown | Toss-Up | GA | 2 | 4:00 | ||||
| GA | 8 | Incumbent D | Jim Marshall | Austin Scott | Leans R | GA | 8 | 4:00 | ||||
| GA | 12 | Incumbent D | John Barrow | Ray McKinney | Longshot | Safe D | GA | 12 | 4:00 | |||
| SC | 5 | Incumbent D | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | Leans R | SC | 5 | 4:00 | ||||
| VA | 2 | Incumbent D | Glenn Nye | WIN | Scott Rigell | Leans R | VA | 2 | AP | 4:00 | ||
| VA | 5 | Incumbent D | Tom Perriello | WIN | Robert Hurt | Leans R | VA | 5 | CBS | 4:00 | ||
| VA | 9 | Incumbent D | Rick Boucher | WIN | Morgan Griffith | Leans D | VA | 9 | AP | 4:00 | ||
| VA | 11 | Incumbent D | Gerald Connolly | Keith Fimian | Leans D | VA | 11 | 4:00 | ||||
I'm not sure if the math is correct. silver is now showing 235 seats for the GOP....Is that a gain of 70? I think it's closer to 60??? Too lazy to do the math however....
Fox:
TN-06
FL-02
NH-01
ALL GOP
IN-2 called for Donnelly....
Finally seeing the numbers move in FL 22 (West-Klein). West still leads 57-43 with 5% reporting.
Silver has a district by district break down of how many seats the GOP would win total if a certain district flips. VA-09 was considered a Leans D seat, so that seat flipping to the GOP indicates a GOP total gain of 70 seats, rather than the 60.
Look at this link:
IN-02 was a tough one. Maybe next time.
TX-17- Flores
TN-04 - GOP
Awesome work, thank you!
Ahhh I see where you got 70. Still that’s a static number. Silver updates his model every 15 min with new forecasts. Currently 238 which is a 62 (I think)
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/live-blogging-election-night/?ref=politics
Ahhh I see where you got 70. Still that’s a static number. Silver updates his model every 15 min with new forecasts. Currently 238 which is a 62 (I think)
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/live-blogging-election-night/?ref=politics
TN-08 FIncher - GOP - FOX
It looks like NY 24 is going republican. That one was a toss up.
TX 25 and TX 27, both expected to be easy Dem wins look like they are in play. Farenthold (R) is winning in TX 27 and Doggett (D) has a slim lead in TX 25. If Doggett loses, I’m going to do cartwheels.
MI-1 - McDowell called Benishek and conceded. MI-1 - GOP
Stupak’s old seat.
Canseco(R) leading Rodriguez(D) in TX-23 (49% - 41%). That would be another R pickup.
Kanjorski loses to Barletta in PA.
| KeyHouseRaces Master List | |||||||||
| District | Seat | Democrat | Winner | Republican | Experts | District | |||
| AL | 2 | Incumbent D | Bobby Bright | Martha Roby | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | ||
| AR | 1 | Open D | Chad Causey | Rick Crawford | Leans R | AR | 1 | ||
| AR | 2 | Open D | Joyce Elliott | Tim Griffin | Leans R | AR | 2 | ||
| AZ | 1 | Incumbent D | Ann Kirkpatrick | Paul Gosar | Leans R | AZ | 1 | ||
| AZ | 5 | Incumbent D | Harold Mitchell | David Schweikert | Toss-Up | AZ | 5 | ||
| AZ | 7 | Incumbent D | Raúl Grijalva | Ruth McClung | Leans D | AZ | 7 | ||
| AZ | 8 | Incumbent D | Gabrielle Giffords | Jesse Kelly | Toss-Up | AZ | 8 | ||
| CA | 3 | Incumbent R | Ami Bera | Dan Lungren | Leans R | CA | 3 | ||
| CA | 11 | Incumbent D | Jerry McNerney | David Harmer | Toss-Up | CA | 11 | ||
| CA | 20 | Incumbent D | Jim Costa | Andy Vidak | Toss-Up | CA | 20 | ||
| CA | 47 | Incumbent D | Loretta Sanchez | Van Tran | Leans D | CA | 47 | ||
| CO | 3 | Incumbent D | John Salazar | Scott Tipton | Toss-Up | CO | 3 | ||
| CO | 4 | Incumbent D | Betsy Markey | Cory Gardner | Leans R | CO | 4 | ||
| CO | 7 | Incumbent D | Ed Perlmutter | Ryan Frazier | Likely D | CO | 7 | ||
| CT | 4 | Incumbent D | Jim Himes | Dan Debicella | Leans D | CT | 4 | ||
| CT | 5 | Incumbent D | Christopher Murphy | Sam Caligiuri | Leans D | CT | 5 | ||
| DE | AL | Open R | John Carney | WIN | Glen Urquhart | Leans D | DE | AL | |
| FL | 2 | Incumbent D | Allen Boyd | WIN | Steve Southerland | Leans R | FL | 2 | |
| FL | 8 | Incumbent D | Alan Grayson | WIN | Daniel Webster | Leans R | FL | 8 | |
| FL | 22 | Incumbent D | Ron Klein | Allen West | Toss-Up | FL | 22 | ||
| FL | 24 | Incumbent D | Suzanne Kosmas | WIN | Sandy Adams | Leans R | FL | 24 | |
| FL | 25 | Open R | Joe Garcia | David Rivera | Leans R | FL | 25 | ||
| GA | 2 | Incumbent D | Sanford Bishop | Mike Keown | Toss-Up | GA | 2 | ||
| GA | 8 | Incumbent D | Jim Marshall | Austin Scott | Leans R | GA | 8 | ||
| HI | 1 | Incumbent R | Colleen Hanabusa | Charles Djou | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | ||
| IA | 1 | Incumbent D | Bruce Braley | Ben Lange | Likely D | IA | 1 | ||
| IA | 2 | Incumbent D | Dave Loebsack | Marianneette Miller Meeks | Likely D | IA | 2 | ||
| IA | 3 | Incumbent D | Leonard Boswell | Brad Zaun | Leans D | IA | 3 | ||
| ID | 1 | Incumbent D | Walter Minnick | Raul Labrador | Toss-Up | ID | 1 | ||
| IL | 8 | Incumbent D | Melissa Bean | Joe Walsh | Likely D | IL | 8 | ||
| IL | 10 | Open R | Dan Seals | Bob Dold | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | ||
| IL | 11 | Incumbent D | Debbie Halvorson | Adam Kinzinger | Likely R | IL | 11 | ||
| IL | 14 | Incumbent D | Bill Foster | Randy Hultgren | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | ||
| IL | 17 | Incumbent D | Phil Hare | Bobby Schilling | Toss-Up | IL | 17 | ||
| IN | 2 | Incumbent D | Joe Donnelly | WIN | Jackie Walorski | Leans D | IN | 2 | |
| IN | 8 | Open D | W. Trent Van Haaften | WIN | Dr. Larry Bucshon | Likely R | IN | 8 | |
| IN | 9 | Incumbent D | Baron Hill | WIN | Todd Young | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | |
| KS | 3 | Open D | Stephene Moore | Kevin Yoder | Likely R | KS | 3 | ||
| KY | 6 | Incumbent D | Ben Chandler | Andy Barr | Leans D | KY | 6 | ||
| LA | 2 | Incumbent R | Cedric Richmond | Joseph Cao | Leans D | LA | 2 | ||
| LA | 3 | Open D | Ravi Sangisetty | Jeff Landry | Likely R | LA | 3 | ||
| MA | 4 | Incumbent D | Barney Frank | WIN | Sean Bielat | Likely D | MA | 4 | |
| MA | 10 | Open D | William Keating | Jeff Perry | Toss-Up | MA | 10 | ||
| MD | 1 | Incumbent D | Frank Kratovil | Andy Harris | Leans R | MD | 1 | ||
| ME | 1 | Incumbent D | Chellie Pingree | Dean Scontras | Likely D | ME | 1 | ||
| ME | 2 | Incumbent D | Mike Michaud | Jason Levesque | Likely D | ME | 2 | ||
| MI | 1 | Open D | Gary McDowell | WIN | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Leans R | MI | 1 | |
| MI | 7 | Incumbent D | Mark Schauer | Tim Walberg | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | ||
| MI | 9 | Incumbent D | Gary Peters | "Rocky" Raczowski | Leans D | MI | 9 | ||
| MN | 1 | Incumbent D | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | Leans D | MN | 1 | ||
| MN | 8 | Incumbent D | Jim Oberstar | Chip Cravaack | Likely D | MN | 8 | ||
| MO | 3 | Incumbent D | Russ Carnahan | Ed Martin | Likely D | MO | 3 | ||
| MO | 4 | Incumbent D | Ike Skelton | Vicky Hartzler | Toss-Up | MO | 4 | ||
| MS | 1 | Incumbent D | Travis Childers | Alan Nunnelee | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | ||
| MS | 4 | Incumbent D | Gene Taylor | Steven Palazzo | Toss-Up | MS | 4 | ||
| NC | 2 | Incumbent D | Bob Etheridge | Renee Ellmers | Leans D | NC | 2 | ||
| NC | 7 | Incumbent D | Mike McIntyre | Ilario Pantano | Leans D | NC | 7 | ||
| NC | 8 | Incumbent D | Larry Kissell | Harold Johnson | Toss-Up | NC | 8 | ||
| NC | 11 | Incumbent D | Heath Shuler | Jeff Miller | Leans D | NC | 4 | ||
| ND | AL | Incumbent D | Earl Pomeroy | Rick Berg | Toss-Up | ND | AL | ||
| NH | 1 | Incumbent D | Carol Shea-Porter | WIN | Frank Guinta | Leans R | NH | 1 | |
| NH | 2 | Open D | Annie Kuster | Charlie Bass | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | ||
| NJ | 3 | Incumbent D | John Adler | Jon Runyan | Toss-Up | NJ | 3 | ||
| NM | 1 | Incumbent D | Martin Heinrich | Jon Barela | Leans D | NM | 1 | ||
| NM | 2 | Incumbent D | Harry Teague | Steve Pearce | Leans R | NM | 2 | ||
| NV | 3 | Incumbent D | Dina Titus | Dr. Joe Heck | Leans R | NV | 3 | ||
| NY | 1 | Incumbent D | Tim Bishop | Randy Altschuler | Toss-Up | NY | 1 | ||
| NY | 13 | Incumbent D | Mike McMahon | Mike Grimm | Leans D | NY | 13 | ||
| NY | 19 | Incumbent D | John Hall | Nan Hayworth | Toss-Up | NY | 19 | ||
| NY | 20 | Incumbent D | Scott Murphy | Chris Gibson | Toss-Up | NY | 20 | ||
| NY | 22 | Incumbent D | Maurice Hinchey | George Phillips | Likely D | NY | 22 | ||
| NY | 23 | Incumbent D | Bill Owens | Matt Doheny | Toss-Up | NY | 23 | ||
| NY | 24 | Incumbent D | Mike Arcuri | Richard Hanna | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | ||
| NY | 25 | Incumbent D | Dan Maffei | Ann Marie Buerkle | Leans D | NY | 25 | ||
| NY | 29 | Open D | Mathew Zeller | Tom Reed | Likely R | NY | 29 | ||
| OH | 1 | Incumbent D | Steve Driehaus | Steve Chabot | Leans R | OH | 1 | ||
| OH | 6 | Incumbent D | Charlie Wilson | Bill Johnson | Toss-Up | OH | 6 | ||
| OH | 13 | Incumbent D | Betty Sutton | Tom Ganley | Likely D | OH | 13 | ||
| OH | 15 | Incumbent D | Mary Jo Kilroy | Steve Stivers | Likely R | OH | 15 | ||
| OH | 16 | Incumbent D | John Boccieri | Jim Renacci | Leans R | OH | 16 | ||
| OH | 18 | Incumbent D | Zach Space | Bob Gibbs | Toss-Up | OH | 18 | ||
| OR | 5 | Incumbent D | Kurt Schrader | Scott Bruun | Toss-Up | OR | 5 | ||
| PA | 3 | Incumbent D | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Mike Kelly | Leans R | PA | 3 | ||
| PA | 4 | Incumbent D | Jason Altmire | Keith Rothfus | Likely D | PA | 4 | ||
| PA | 7 | Open D | Bryan Lentz | Pat Meehan | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | ||
| PA | 8 | Incumbent D | Patrick Murphy | Mike Fitzpatrick | Toss-Up | PA | 8 | ||
| PA | 10 | Incumbent D | Chris Carney | Tom Marino | Toss-Up | PA | 10 | ||
| PA | 11 | Incumbent D | Paul Kanjorski | Lou Barletta | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | ||
| PA | 12 | Incumbent D | Mark Critz | Timothy Burns | Leans D | PA | 12 | ||
| PA | 17 | Incumbent D | Tim Holden | David Argall | Likely D | PA | 17 | ||
| RI | 1 | Open D | David Cicilline | John Loughlin | Leans D | RI | 1 | ||
| SC | 5 | Incumbent D | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | Leans R | SC | 5 | ||
| SD | AL | Incumbent D | Stephanie Sandlin | Kristi Noem | Toss-Up | SD | AL | ||
| TN | 4 | Incumbent D | Lincoln Davis | WIN | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Toss-Up | TN | 4 | |
| TN | 6 | Open D | Brett Carter | WIN | Diane Black | Likely R | TN | 6 | |
| TN | 8 | Open D | Roy Herron | WIN | Stephen Fincher | Likely R | TN | 8 | |
| TX | 17 | Incumbent D | Chet Edwards | WIN | Bill Flores | Likely R | TX | 17 | |
| TX | 23 | Incumbent D | Ciro Rodriguez | Quico Canseco | Toss-Up | TX | 23 | ||
| TX | 27 | Incumbent D | Solomon Ortiz | R. Blake Farenthold | Likely D | TX | 27 | ||
| UT | 2 | Incumbent D | Jim Matheson | Morgan Philpot | Likely D | UT | 2 | ||
| VA | 2 | Incumbent D | Glenn Nye | WIN | Scott Rigell | Leans R | VA | 2 | |
| VA | 5 | Incumbent D | Tom Perriello | WIN | Robert Hurt | Leans R | VA | 5 | |
| VA | 9 | Incumbent D | Rick Boucher | WIN | Morgan Griffith | Leans D | VA | 9 | |
| VA | 11 | Incumbent D | Gerald Connolly | Keith Fimian | Leans D | VA | 11 | ||
| WA | 2 | Incumbent D | Rick Larsen | John Koster | Leans D | WA | 2 | ||
| WA | 3 | Open D | Denny Heck | Jaime Herrera | Leans R | WA | 3 | ||
| WA | 8 | Incumbent R | Suzan DelBene | Dave Reichert | Leans R | WA | 8 | ||
| WI | 3 | Incumbent D | Ron Kind | Dan Kapanke | Leans D | WI | 3 | ||
| WI | 7 | Open D | Julie Lassa | Sean Duffy | Leans R | WI | 7 | ||
| WI | 8 | Incumbent D | Steve Kagen | Reid Ribble | Leans R | WI | 8 | ||
| WV | 1 | Open D | Mike Oliverio | David B. McKinley | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | ||
| WV | 3 | Incumbent D | Nick Rahall | "Spike" Maynard | Likely D | WV | 3 | ||
WV-03 called for Rahall-D.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.