Posted on 12/27/2010 5:52:19 AM PST by StatenIsland
On the day after Boxing Day, it’s worth noting that Barack Obama is down but not out.
You could tell as much from the contrast between his petulant post-election press conference and his peppy pre-Christmas press conference. In the former, he was crabby about accepting Republicans’ demands that income-tax rates on all taxpayers not be raised. In the latter, he was celebrating the lame-duck Congress’s acceptance of his stands on the New START treaty, repeal of don’t ask, don’t tell, and even the previously reviled tax deal.
Obama has obviously figured out that Americans prefer to see their president describe the glass as half full rather than half empty. That’s a good lesson for him, and for Republicans, as well — especially those who believe that the Obama Democrats’ shellacking in the midterms means that Obama himself will definitely lose in 2012.
History should provide some caution for these folks. Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush saw their parties fare pretty well in their midterm elections. But they were nonetheless defeated in their reelection bids.
In contrast, pundits thought that Ronald Reagan’s Republicans took a shellacking in 1982 (actually, about half their losses resulted from redistricting), and Bill Clinton’s Democrats definitely did in 1994. But both the 40th and 42nd presidents were resoundingly reelected, carrying 49 and 31 states.
Several factors will likely work less strongly against Obama in 2012 than against the Obama Democrats in 2010. Turnout will be different, for one thing. We may see again the record turnout of blacks we saw in 2008. Young people who pretty much shunned the polls in the midterms may turn out and vote — though the 34-point margin they gave to Obama was halved to 17 points for congressional Democrats in 2010.
The balance of enthusiasm favored Republicans and conservatives in 2010, as it had favored Democrats in 2006 and 2008. It could conceivably shift and favor the Democrats once again.
Another factor is that polls show that most Americans have favorable personal feelings toward the president. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both happened to have personal characteristics that people on the other side of the cultural divide absolutely loathed. Obama doesn’t.
His reliance on his teleprompter, his secret smoking, his irritability when not adored — these are pretty minor failings. People like his family and his obvious devotion to them. They don’t mind that he likes to get away and play golf or shoot hoops from time to time.
Then there is the powerful desire Americans have to see their presidents succeed. That worked for Bill Clinton in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2004. Polls and focus groups showed that voters in the middle of the political spectrum were ready to overlook their weaknesses and appreciated their strengths in those years. That could be the case with Obama in 2012.
Moreover, there will be a reluctance on the part of many voters, understandable in light of our history, to reject the first African-American president. I’m convinced — though I cannot prove — that Americans who feel this way far outnumber those few who cannot abide seeing a black man in the White House.
All of which does not mean that Obama is a sure winner. Polls suggest that if the election were held today he could lose to several possible Republican nominees who are much less well known and have weaknesses of their own. But they also suggest he could win.
Still, there are substantive issues working against Obama. Most Americans want to repeal Obamacare; he wants to keep it. Most voters rejected his vast expansion of the size and scope of government; he still thinks it’s a good idea.
Obama came to office with the assumption that economic distress would increase support for his policies to (in his words to Joe the Plumber) “spread the wealth around.” But the 2010 midterms make it about as clear as these things can be that voters reject such efforts.
American voters are not seething with envy over income inequality and are not convinced that we’ll all do better if the government takes away more of Bill Gates’s money. Obama, like the academics in whose neighborhoods he has always chosen to live, think they should be seething — and that, if the message is just delivered the right way, they can be convinced to do just that.
That’s a big difference on some fundamental issues. Enough to make the difference in 2012? Not clear.
Americans do not currently have a president.
Now, off to finish the article.
“Obama OK in 2012?”
Obama fantastic in 2012!
Throw in the Democrat-run press blaming Republicans for everything, those “brilliant” fence sitting Independents who lean left, the hardcore left-wing constituency, all those Democrat-only voting machines, and success is in the cards.
IMHO
Good analysis.
Not sure I completely agree with this point, tho:
“Moreover, there will be a reluctance on the part of many voters, understandable in light of our history, to reject the first African-American president”
Obama cashed in on that in the last election. Anyone who voted for Obama mostly because he is African-American will not feel the need to do it again.
0bama is a communist.
Anybody who votes for this metrosexual, communist busybody is either ...
1. a communist,
2. not paying attention,
3. a moron,
4. a black supremacist.
His reliance on his teleprompter, his secret smoking, his irritability when not adored — these are pretty minor failings. People like his family and his obvious devotion to them. They don’t mind that he likes to get away and play golf or shoot hoops from time to time.
Or the fact that he takes at least one extravagant vacation every month at a huge cost to the taxpayers.
I think zer0 is toast. NY, Ca. yea they will vote for rat, but the rest of the Country has had enough
Just.Exactly.Right!!!
Don’t forget, Obozo is the ‘Comeback Kid.’
He’s Come Back Kid II - starting to hit his stride. All is well - just listen to the DBM.
The economy will be the driving factor in 2012 as it was in 2008 and 2010.
It’s only a matter of time before several states go under. There will be a massive fight over bailing them out.
I don't believe this poll for a minute, but it does reinforce my action of twenty years ago in canceling my subscription to NR. I'd much rather read my political opinion pages from Investors Business Daily!
There is some evidence that these polls showing that the majority of American’s like Obama are skewed by the fact that a lot of folks are reluctant to be called ‘racists’ if they do admit they can’t stand Obama.
LLS
This article is so pie-in-the-sky that it is actually laughable. According to this article “blacks MAY turn out in 2012”, the Youth vote “may turn out in 2012.” Also ignored is the fact that George Bush’s loss was all about Ross Perot and the beginning of the right’s yearning for a true fiscal conservative. This author also opines that Obama’s tendency to be “crabby when not adored” is minor and not to be considered a personal failing bordering on dangerous when it is part of the make-up in a world leader.
One would have to believe that this article was written by a high school or college student and certainly not by someone with any real grasp on reality.
LLS
Thanks for posting this. In the immediate aftermath of the election, I thought Obama would be wise to keep his overseas junket going for another couple of years and then just fade off into history. But the lame-duck session of Congress made him look like a winner again—thanks in part to the Republicans who will remain in office next time around. Obama has again positioned himself as representative of hope/change; the GOP evidently represents only more ethanol in our gas tanks.
Obama is in great shape for 2012.
The reason:
Those on the federal dole outnumber those who produce. This nation reached the point somewhere around 2005. There is no going back and the moochers will continue voting for any candidate that blames the rich and promises them economic justice. We are F—ked.
JMO...
Usually Barone is fairly level-headed in his political analysis. On this one, I suspect he emptied the scnhapps bottle while scribbling on the walls and then got into granny’s wine stash.
“Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both happened to have personal characteristics that people on the other side of the cultural divide absolutely loathed. Obama doesn’t.”
At this point he was swinging from the chandelier while wearing a teapot on his head.
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