I was never confident that this would be overthrown. While taxing you more FOR NOT doing something (aka a fine) seems new, them taxing you less FOR doing something has been a standard for a long time (aka tax credits.) Furthermore there is No penalty for not paying the fine/tax making it easier to argue it's just a punitive tax. So going in front of the SCOTUS is indeed a crapshoot.
The reason why these suits are important is to keep the PR political battle against the unpopular parts alive in the voters eyes. Never underestimate the importance of guiding the voters opinions. Having 53 states sue over Obama-care shows voters the immorality of the Federal government forcing Obama-care on all the states.
I called Boehners office and told him the next step is to have votes on a bill that allows individual states to do total opt-outs including the new taxes. Let them oppose that.
That's a good idea, but the leftists know what would happen if such a bill became law. Imagine Virginia wanted out and Maryland stayed in. Maryland would get a lot of new "immigrants" seeking health care paid for by somebody else (including some who are in trouble through no fault of their own, but are going to take a lot more in medical services than they pay for). Virginia might get a different kind of immigrants from Maryland: entrepreneurs.
I'm not sure how much wealth Maryland gets from people working in DC, but I don't think it's enough to make up for such a shift.
I believe those states that remained in collectively would not be able to pay for it. So count on the leftists to either block the bill, or amend it so that states who want out pay for it anyway.