Posted on 03/16/2011 8:53:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
When the seismic "big one" hits California, scientists doubt it will be quite as powerful as the earthquake that struck Japan last week although it could do plenty of damage.
The colossal California quake considered inevitable and long overdue is most likely to strike along the southern end of the famed San Andreas Fault and register a magnitude of 7.5 or greater, many times less powerful than the 9.0 temblor that rocked Japan on Friday, geologists say.
Still, an earthquake damage forecast prepared in 2008 for the U.S. Geological Survey by geophysicists and engineers envisions a calamity that would leave 2,000 people dead, 50,000 injured and 250,000 homeless.
That scenario is based on the premise of a magnitude 7.8 quake rupturing the San Andreas in the desert east of Los Angeles and radiating with catastrophic fury into the nation's second-largest metropolitan area.
Such a quake could be expected to topple 1,500 buildings, badly damage another 300,000 and sever highways, power lines, pipelines, railroads, communications networks and aqueducts. Property losses of more than $200 billion are projected.
The hypothetical quake also would ignite about 1,600 fires, some growing into conflagrations that would engulf hundreds of city blocks.
Experts predict the biggest long-term economic disruption would come from damage to water-distribution systems that would leave some homes and businesses without running water for months.
"The lesson is you don't need a magnitude 9 to cause extensive damage," said USGS spokeswoman Leslie Gordon.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Seattle will get it before Cali does.
It could...but we deserve it here in mexifornia.
Rooters must really need scare tactics to get up their viewer numbers.
I’m hearing that the Cascadia fault is the one that will really devastate the West Coast?
I’m not betting on the “no looting” scenario.
Yes, its always all about LA.
Im not betting on the no looting scenario.-- Los Angeles, 1992
RE: Yes, its always all about LA.
I’m more worried about San Francisco.
RE: Im not betting on the no looting scenario.
My friend sent me an e-mail informing me that on the eve of the earhtuake, he was caught in one of the most horrible traffic jams he had ever experience in his life (in Tokyo).
He also told me he was quite amazed -— Virtually No impatient honking anywhere !!
Hope they get the Ferry business up and running, or I'll have to start flying there rather than driving.
Your map not only leaves the worst part of the state firmly attached to the continental US, it makes it beach front property.
“Seattle will get it before Cali does.”
And as their last earthquake proved, they’re not even as prepared as California is. If a 9.0 hits off of Washington I expect Seattle to have massive amounts of damage.
The only thing that might be left standing is the Space Needle which was designed to withstand a 9.2.
Yup. California most likely would be a “slip” quake, not a subduction quake.
The last time the Cascadia zone went, 1000 miles of coastline from Vancouver all the way down to northern California had a 9.0 or thereabouts quake. Jan 26th, 1700.
Of course Mammoth Lakes might decide to act up and you have a supervolcano event...
The Space Needle may or may not withstand a major quake such as that but either way, it will be one heck of a ride for those caught up top.
Including a nuke plant sitting very near a major earthquake fault. We've had our warning. Shut that plant down until it is inspected, just as Germany has done.
San Onofre nuclear generating station - California
Unit 1 is no longer in service and has been dismantled. It is being used as a storage site for spent fuel. The power station was built to withstand a 7.0 magnitude earthquake directly under the plant.
Alarming....NOT.
Been through em before and they were terrible just not as calamitous as predicted.
The reason? Hypothetical numbers that have no empirical underlying data the specifically identifies which buildings, homes, facilities and utilities will be affected or are at risk.
But they probably got an A for a very flowery written paper.
I know.
SF Bay Area is at greater risk due to being directly on top of the San Andreas from the North Bay to Hollister and even down to King City.
Our population is packed in greater density than the area described in this “Alarmist” report.
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