Skip to comments.Egypt: Arab 'Democracy' Gives Way To A New Islamist State
Posted on 03/26/2011 12:32:27 AM PDT by Rashputin
March 26, 2011 Egypt: Arab 'Democracy' Gives Way To A New Islamist State
Remember when the pundits, columnists and the newsrooms in the dinosaur media were practically jumping out of their shoes touting the Egyptian 'pro-democracy' movement? How wonderful it all was, and how Egypt was going to be the new liberal paradise in the Arab world? How sagacious and wise Obama was for encouraging it all and dumping Mubarak so quickly?
Well, it appears that some second thoughts and some serious walking back are in order as reality rears its ugly head.
They've finally noticed that the secular unemployed and underemployed twitter addicts and students in Cairo aren't the ones who will be running the new Egypt...it will be the military in partnership with the Ikhwan, the Muslim Brotherhood.
"We are all worried," said Amr Koura, 55, a television producer, reflecting the opinions of the secular minority. "The young people have no control of the revolution anymore. It was evident in the last few weeks when you saw a lot of bearded people taking charge. The youth are gone."
In other words, something more along the lines of Iran, just as I predicted.
And the 'youth' will go along with it, as will the military...just as they did in Iran.
Whaddya know about that?
The folly of the whitewashing of the 'secular' Muslim Brotherhood by the Obama Administration and people like their shills at the Times is about to become all too plain.
The Egyptians, urged on by their imams and the Ikhwan turned out in record numbers to vote for early elections that favor the Brotherhood, not the nascent 'liberal' movements. And it is the new Brotherhood dominated parliament that will revamp Egypt's laws and create a new Islamic Republic that will be absolutely sharia-licious.
The rabid response Ikhwan leader Yusef Qaradawi received when he returned to Egypt should have been one clue to the boys and girls at Parvda-on-the Hudson. So was Lara Logan's gang rape while the crowd screamed "Jew! Jew!"
Islam and the western notion of freedom and democracy don't mix, for the most part.
I'm also going to make another prediction, one that seems quite obvious to me. The Obama Administration's policies in Egypt and the Middle East are almost certain to lead to a new war in the region between Israel and the genocidal Hamas, with a good chance of Hezbollah joining in and Egypt participating, at least tacitly and perhaps overtly.
Mubarak was no friend of Israel, but after seeing the Muslim Brotherhood murder his predecessor Anwar Sadat, he realized that they were a threat to his regime and made efforts to suppress them at home and keep Iranian arms out of the hands of Hamas, the Ikhwan branch in Gaza.
The new Egyptian regime is going to be much more sympathetic to Hamas and isn't likely to make any such efforts, even if they elect to go through the motions of observing the Israel-Egypt peace treaty to keep that fat $2 billion US subsidy coming in. As soon as Hamas feels it's ready, we'll see another war against the Jews.
Since Hezbollah now owns Lebanon and is an Iranian proxy like Hamas, they will almost certainly join in. And we could actually see a scenario where Egyptian popular opinion and religious fervor has the new regime putting their US trained and armed military into the mix as well.
The fact is this was a coup engineered and supported by the President of the US with full support from his own Islamic administration. After resisting the Muslim Brotherhood since the late forties, it was obvious that as long as the US supported a secular regime in Egypt there wasn't going to be an Islamic State there. So, the solution was to send experienced US fascists to organize a front for the Muslim Brotherhood to operate behind.
The next phase is the murder of many in the military and many former officials. Whether that phase of the revolution will be openly reported remains to be seen. I hope the television producer they quote has the brains to leave before his head is on the chopping block, otherwise the peaceful, loving, Mooslims will be parading it around on a pike before long.
> The Obama Administration’s policies in Egypt and the Middle East are almost certain to lead to a new war in the region between Israel and the genocidal Hamas, with a good chance of Hezbollah joining in and Egypt participating, at least tacitly and perhaps overtly.
I think this is right (and Beck on thursday) that this is all a precursor to attacking Israel under UN’s “Protections”. It actually furthers the cause when they get everyone thinking - why Libya? why not Yemen, Syria, Darfur - because it’s easier for them to make the case ‘why not Israel?’
Not if the Jews have anything to say about it.
Who can now deny that we have a muslim as president?
Zer0's a screwup like no other (with the exception of Jimmy Carter.)
Gallup poll numbers show a backing of 47 percent, the lowest numbers for any military conflict in 30 years. Compare that to 76 percent for Iraq. Reagan picked up 71 percent for bombing Libya.
The next lowest contenders are Bill Clinton's poll-driven adventures in Kosovo (%51) and Haiti (%54). What about Clinton's Somalia goat f__k called 'Operation Restore Hope'? When will we hear 'cut-and-run' from the Democrats? I'm sure Zer0 will say to Libya: 'So long, folks.' No strategy needed!
Hope and Change.... Tragic.
... and the Coptic Christians will be persecuted and slaughtered just as in Iraq
“I think this is right (and Beck on thursday) that this is all a precursor to attacking Israel under UNs Protections. It actually furthers the cause when they get everyone thinking - why Libya? why not Yemen, Syria, Darfur - because its easier for them to make the case why not Israel?”
And why not in our country to get rid of our dictator?
gee, who could have seen that coming?
And to think there are some FReepers (and you know who you are) who actually think toppling Gaddafi is a GOOD thing in Libya. “Oh, the Libya uprising is purely a desire from freedom,” I’ve been told. “We’ll just get the new government to assure us they’ll abide by Libya’s 1952 constitution (from the air, of course).”
I guess for some, the learning takes a bit longer.
Mubarak had ruled Egypt for more than 30 years. He simply had to go. All other analysis is merely academic.
If you think America is best served by propping up tyrants like King Abdallah in Saudi Arabia - you are in for a rude shock (in the next few years).
My predictions: The Iranian regime will collapse this decade and the power of militant Islam will be broken. You can take it to the bank.
The questions are: What will take its place? And will America still be relevant in that part of the World?
What is your take on the Libya issue?
If radical Muslims assume power in Egypt it won’t be academic.
I guess those Wisconsiner protestors are gonna have to change their “we are all egyptians now” signs, eh?
I can’t stand men with facial hair.....ick
um, 5th century BC?
This is no surprise to anyone who can think beyond the end of their nose.
An Islamic nation is growing in the middle east and it will be bloody and barberous. Israel will end up in a terrible war and may cease to exist.
America is at risk as many of our young people are aimless and looking for order.
Sharia law will offer that order, we have allowed the liberal elite of this country to destroy our morals and foundation.
The next ten years shall be interesting.
I think you're right. We had heard someone from Code Pink and both Ayers and Dohrn were in Egypt recently during the "flotilla" propaganda operation. Now we know what else they were doing -- delivering private messages to the Muslim Brotherhood from Obama.
The Empress Farah Diba is still alive, as is the prince of the Pahlevi house. Constitutional monarchy would be an option.
Remember, one reason the Shah fell was that Khomeini's followers were always bitch, bitch, bitching about how cruel and mean the SAVAK agents were to them, and they raised a holy Islamic stink about unjust, non-Islamic rulership. At bottom, it was a big, fat moral complaint.
Now that Iranian society has had a good chance to see what the late Shah's detractors were made of, do you think they might be capable of weighing the old complaints about SAVAK against what the people targeted by SAVAK have done, once their hands were untied?
Maybe the Islamists just flat deserved to get the living snot kicked out of them -- maybe they were just that kind of people who need to be repressed as hard as possible, like LaRouchies, lest they come to power and unleash their pathetically diseased personalities on the rest of humanity.
It would be an interesting thing to let the Iranian people decide on their own.
I think Beck’s also right that Barry’s approach to Egypt and Libya is intended to amass Samantha Powers’ “mammoth army’ against Israel. We have a pro-caliphate president.
Did the US have to support a Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Egypt? That is clearly what we have done.
And if that comes to pass, the reasons for not committing to that course of action will come down to the fact that Israeli subs can launch nukes into places like Washington, London, Paris, etc, etc, etc. (well, not Moscow or Beijing, though)
That said, I can easily see the West then imposing a trade embargo. Which would drive Israel to trade heavily with the up-and-coming countries like China, India, Brazil, Russia, Southeast Asia, and the like.
The expected result of WTF foreign policy. Thanks, nobama, you crass loser.
I think this is something that should not be made light of. This is a grave situation for both the West and Israel. I don’t want this just place at the feet of (.)bama, I want he removed from office for being inept, perhaps a traitor. He can claim it was an intelligence SNAFU or being goaded by the press and others, but he began to sow the seeds of these problems with his mid east tour in 09. The guy has an evil midas touch.
Interesting he has been quiet these past few days since returning home. He probably got an ear full from those in S.A., his once overblown ability to inspire is shown for what it was...blabber. The sad thing is we have him for another almost 2 years and most politicians are afraid to take him on due to his appearing to be black.
Man, if people can’t learn from 45+ years of experience, there isn’t any need to teach.
Only our dictator is complicit in it; he seems to think he’s invincible, untouchable royalty and all that . . when they come for him, he’ll be the first to be flabbergasted . .
THESE ARE ALL MUSLIM STATES WITH MUSLIM LAWS AND THAT WILL NOT CHANGE.
IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, LIBYA, PAKISTAN...ETC, ETC...
Libya is 97% Muslim...
Something is happening in the Arab World and we are best advised to seek understanding beyond the headlines. (I don’t know how religious you - at a prayer meeting held in the Jerusalem in the 1980’s it was revealed that God would break the power of Communism and Militant Islam).
It is not 1979. The Islamic revolution has already run out of steam as the Iranian protests of 2009 demonstrated. The current regime in Iran is on its way out - within this decade.
Most Arabs don’t want another Iran. They know it does not work.
It is clear, (from the way most freepers talk)that they have no experience living with Muslims. I live amongst muslims and I can tell you many are not stupid. They are now understanding that:
a.)Sharia is not the way to go. A couple of states in my country tried implementing it, and it was a massive failure.
b.)They need to take a second look at Islam. Many are converting to Christianity and the smarter ones are asking questions like “why do Christian women have a 70% literacy rate whilst Muslim women have a 20% literacy rate?”.
There is a massive convulsion in the Islamic World, and while some want to go back to the 13th Century, many want to move ahead with the 21st Century. The vibe I get from many posters here is that they want the 13th Century to win.
My question to Americans is this: Do you want 13th Century fanatics controlling your Oil supplies? If you don’t want that to happen stop twiddling your thumbs - the least you can do is pray.
Talking about Libya, Gaddafi will go and what happens in Egypt and Tunisia will be the key to what happens there. (Libya lies between Egypt and Tunisia). It will not be an Al Qaeda state.
I don’t think you understood what happened in Egypt. A man had ruled Egypt for 31 years and even the cats, dogs and mice in Egypt wanted him to go.
I guess you have never lived under a dictator, I have. It is a nasty experience (it does not matter whether the dictator is supported by either the US or the Soviet Union).
What exactly did you want the US Government to do? Or what exactly could the US Government had done?
The Muslim Brotherhood has not taken over Egypt - and short of invading Egypt there is absolutely nothing the US Government can do to prevent the Brotherhood from taking over, if that is what the Egyptian people want.
The US Army invaded and occupied Iraq only to replace a very nasty secular dictatorship with Iran lite. In Afghanistan.....
The best you can do is pray.
One of the advantages of coming from the so-called “Third World” is seeing the World differently.
I have a friend who works in Iran and I did my PG work with a couple of Iranians.
Iranians are amongst the most highly educated in the Middle East. (And this will shock you) The Mullahs were very successful at educating women. There are more women in universities in Iran than men and the fertility rate in Iran has decreased from 6.5 in the 70’s and 80’s to less than 2 in 2010. (The Mullahs introduced contraceptives,condoms etc)
That is not the profile of a raging demographic time bomb.
There were massive protests against the Iranian regime in 1999 and 2009 (and they still simmer).
Going back to the 5th century BC is not a bad idea, because it would take them back to the era of Cyrus the Great.
Thank you for the informative posts. Can you reveal the name of the African country?
Welcome to Free Republic. I hope you continue to educate us.
The vanguard of the revolution in Iran will mainly be those born after 1979. (60% of Iranian population is under 30). So they are not likely to have any memories of the SAVAK and the Shah.
Iran is a very interesting case because their own version of “the Brotherhood” has been in power for 31 years. So regime change there will most definitely lead to a more secular regime.
No, I’ve not lived under a dictator, but I’ve watched decades od both African and Latin American countries veering from bad government to worse with just your attitude of ‘anything is better than what we’ve got’. Already the NYTimes has had to report that the MB is working in concert with the army. There’s little difference between Marxist, theocratic and simple strongman dictatorships—except that the theocratic ones that Middle Easterners go for are part of a major global threat.
The US should not have worked with and blessed the MB, as the Obama administration has, and it should clearly have offered support only for reforms that the people would not have gone for—and so the US should not have been involved in pressuring Mubarak out. Instead we should have backed the real voices of reform in Iran.
“We are all worried,” said Amr Koura, 55, a television producer, reflecting the opinions of the secular minority. “The young people have no control of the revolution anymore. It was evident in the last few weeks when you saw a lot of bearded people taking charge. The youth are gone.”
I noticed that early on. Before the mosques let out...that 1st week there were women (many with heads not covered) and children in the streets with signs. As time went on the live feeds and pictures were not as encouraging. The mobs/gangs that are best organized in the community and funded from afar are the beneficiaries of chaos. Much like Madison, Wisconsin (and america’s robed mullahs) there weren’t any collectivists walking around holding up a pocket copy of the consitution.
Thanks for posting. Very interesting. Ongoing, unfolding history.
Really though, it has nothing to do with learning. It has more to do with shaping a narrative that fits, er exonerates, their future candidates.
Like Egypt, Iraq (97% Muslim) has pretty much killed or scared off all the Christians and Jews....just like they have preached since their beginning.
The US Government is not God Almighty and the US Government is not omnipotent.
The real power in Egypt is the army and if the army wants to work with the MB, the most severe sanction the US Government can apply is to withdraw the 1.6 billion dollar aid granted to the Egyptian army. (But that would have several serious consequences like putting Israel in danger and drawing the army deeper into the hands of the MB).
Egypt is an independent country - I don’t think you have fully grasped that fact. You have three levers to apply - the economic lever, the diplomatic lever and the military lever.
The best bet is the diplomatic lever, and the best diplomacy is conducted in secret. I advise you to pray for your President.
(P.S: What do YOU think the US Government should do?)
Informative posts or propaganda?
There isnt a day that goes by where you cant read of Christian persecution and murders and the horrific treatment of Christians by the “religion of peace” by the hands of radical Moslems those who are devout followers based in Africa, and the Middle East.
My guess is the poster is from Tanzania or Zanzibar, judging from the first comment here at FR where the poster was promoting his Star TV and glowing review of Al Jazeera (Jihad TV), that has been a mouthpiece for all kinds of terrorist groups ranging from al-Qaeda to Hamas to Hezbollah, inciting violence against U.S. allies in the region for years.
Al Jazeera TVs own Moslem cleric Yusuf Qaradawi, who regularly diatribes anti-American and anti-Semitic statements had issued a fatwa calling for Gaddafis murder. And the son of Zanzibar, our pres—ent, is following orders. :0)
I am not an American (I am an African living in Africa). I have access to Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN International, CCTV and Euronews on my cable subscription (I used to have access to FoxNews, but I cancelled it).
Let me tell you frankly, Al Jazeera is leagues ahead of Fox News in terms of content.
I don’t believe I understand the Egyptian situation as much as you misinterpret my position. I’m saying if the Egyptian protesters haven’t a better, coherent alternative to the status quo, they’ve a worse solution—in which case the _4 best butt out and at most threaten a withholding of our billions. Better to support protesters who offer a better, not a worse, alternative and who are rebelling against the enemies of the US and Israel, not against those who have cooperated with us. To push, as Obama’s team has, the MB and vouch for their peacefulness is the last thing we shgould have done. I also wouldn’t provide free war services in support of the MB and Al Kaeda in Libya. My view is that we should stay out of all such severely misguided countries’ business as much as possible. I’d come to the aid of those who would improve their countries’ governance. Develop our own energy resources and reward good behavior, not bad.
But its arbiters will be those born before, who can remember the polite and cultured society that ruled Iran under the Pahlevis, all of which was trashed by those ninth-century mouth-breathing throwbacks.
I also worry whenever I see opinion that seems to "write off" the Turks: there is still a plurality there, including most of the military, who are guided and illuminated by the legacy of the Ataturk, who had no illusions about Islamists and religiopolitical mystics. Ataturk had known the corrupt old Turkey of the Porte and the regime of the Young Turks, too, and had pretty much seen it all. The people who follow his leadership still have a lot to offer the West, but they did play the demographic game of letting lots of Turks migrate to central Europe and send back remittances, which is a form of economic mining of other economies.
It seems to me that by threatening Europe with an embrace of Islamism, Erdogan seems to be unaware he'd also be threatening a strong source of national income. Put differently, all that Turks living in central and western Europe need is to make themselves such a pain in the ass as would-be vanguards of some latter-day Mahometan conquest of Europe, that the Europeans finally expel them in self-defense.
I disagree. IF the Muslim Brotherhood takes over both Libya and Egypt, both will revert to poisonous "frontline states" and there will be a new war with Israel -- and the United States, this time, will be Israel's sole support. With Obama in the White House, think what that means. I'm convinced that he is committed to Israel's destruction. I don't know if he is a devout "secret" Moslem, or simply sympathetic because of his curriculum vitae to the Islamist cause, or if he is simply a subornee and creature of Islamism and rich Wahhabists.
The MB, you will recall, is not a mere corresponding movement of, but is actually a wellspring of, Al-Q'aedism. Abu Ayman may be a loudmouth and a kind of opportunist -- the Kato Kaelin of terrorism -- but his presence at the side of Osama Bin Laden is hugely significant for the identity of MB with the leadership of the worldwide jihadist terror movement.
The internet savvy, well educated young protesters that led the demonstrations on Tahrir square are a minority. Seasoned diplomats understand that there is a big risk in casting your lot with only about 10% of the population.
Diplomacy is the art of the possible. Israel sits next to Egypt and Syria. Right now we cannot predict what will come out of Syria in the near term. So you really have to play your cards well with Egypt because Syria is a big unknown.
Withdrawing your aid billions will be a serious mistake. Something will give, and your capacity to influence Egyptian politics will be degraded. The Chinese will gladly take the slack and add the Suez canal to their acquisition of the Panama canal.Israel will also be affected.
All said, the genuine secular pro-democracy protesters should be supported.
In the unlikely event that Egypt sets up an Islamist State, be rest assured that it will fail. There is no evidence that the modern Islamic State is economically viable. (Saudi Arabia is awash with oil, this is why they can afford to hold on to Medieval practices - Egypt is not that blessed with natural resources).
You cannot also depend solely on your Oil & Gas reserves - that is not how the market is structured. Oil is a fungible commodity, so whatever happens in that region will always affect the price of crude globally - unless you revert to a command economy.
There are responsibilities, risks and rewards of being the sole superpower. I am sorry, you have to get on with it.
The Turkish economy grew by 8.9% during the first three quarters of 2010 and it has been growing quite rapidly for the past 10 years. So Erdogan and AKP are feeling quite good with themselves.
Whether Turkey needs Europe more than Europe needs Turkey could be a topic of intense debate in the coming decades. The demographics of Europe will make sustained economic growth very difficult. Meanwhile, Turkey offers a relatively large, young and skilled population. In addition, Turkey has recently been looking East (towards the ‘stans’ and China) and South (towards Africa).
I don’t fully understand what Mr. Erdogan is up to, but it is a much more benign affair than what obtains in Pakistan and Iraq. Mr. Erdogan is not in the habit of committing the type of human rights abuses the Generals were known for, and he has really performed well economically (better than most Kemalists). So he is genuinely popular.
Now I am not sure if Europe and America have a problem with the Turkish model so far.
Let’s take a step back.
I am in the habit of buying the end of the year edition of ‘the Economist’ in which the key issues for the following year are discussed. The smart folks at the ‘the Economist’ had absolutely no clue that some serious was brewing in the Arab World.
And most of us didn’t.
Let us be humble enough to say we don’t really understand what is going on.
The second point is what exactly is the US Government supposed to do if Egyptians wanted Mubarak to leave - insist that he stays?
Do you know enough about the Egyptian army to know whether they would sit back and allow the MB to rule Egypt? I accept that the secular coalition in Egypt is disorganised, but remember that Mubarak’s people are still in power and Mubarak hated the brothers.
Perhaps you can query the poster as to their national origin. This is the internet and it may not always be wise to give too many personal details online. How many African Christians have done graduate work w/Iranian nationals and had educated parents? Caution is often the best route.
Many Americans have commented on the quality of Al Jazeera’s news content, even some FReepers. I rarely watch CNN, do not subscribe to the alphabets and live beyond over-the-air reception, but FNC, while having reporters in the region, often takes days to report fully on events I have read about online. The poster is dead on about the celebrity segments. As an older American, I often have no idea who the people are, why they are famous and could care less. It is shallow and a waste of time. So, I do not get your point, unless it is to tarnish someone because they have listened to/watched and learned from an Arabic network while residing in another country/continent or to attempt to chastise me for being naive.
The poster was warning Americans that they are rather ignorant of world politics, especially if they rely on FNC. He goes on to (again: gently) remind us that there is a war on for the hearts and minds of the world. We knew China was gaining control of land and resources in Africa, but I, at least, was unaware that working Africans go to lengths to learn a difficult language and obviously see China as their future.
His remonstrations reminded me of my own travel experiences, where my husband and I, while still young, went out of our way to escape the tourist resorts and get to know the people who worked there on their own terms. This was 20-35 years ago and we consistently found that people in other countries are better informed than we are about global politics and, in some cases, macro-economics and that they were frustrated beyond belief by the average American and European tourist. Everyone we met after 1995 owned a TV and received satellite coverage complete with multi-lingual closed captions. We learned to never assume that because someone was working in the tourist industry, they were also of menial mind. Sometimes, it was the best job available for someone who was also multi-lingual.
Even in Papua New Guinea in 1975, there was a native educated class that saw themselves as role models for the masses still living with one foot in the Stone Age. These people were educated in Australia and the UK. They were serious, often earnestly brilliant individuals and could offer insights not available to Americans of the same era. We always entered into these relationships as students, avoiding, as best we could, the insular, aggravating American attitudes that so frustrate the educated classes around the world. Never once did we encounter people who whitewashed their own leaders, at least, not once they got to know us. Everyone is always cautious, at first and that is totally understandable.
A few facts about the mullahs, that the poster states are *surprising* to Americans and which do not conflict with what I have read elsewhere, is not propaganda. I found it interesting that devout Muslim clerics promoted birth control and went out of the way to educate women. Since I have often read that Iranian women are no longer allowed to work once they have children, that makes it even more interesting to me as an insight into the mullah’s policies. Evidently, they want to reduce their birth rate. Is that because they are broke or because they distrust their subject citizens? Perhaps our African Christian poster can elaborate.
As the poster implies, the era of Cyrus the Great was a high point of Persian culture. I took the comment as gentle sarcasm, pro-Persian and a reminder that Iran was not only always Muslim, but that educated Iranians today are fed up with their rulers.
We Americans are often seen as being too blunt while lacking important information. Our lives, until quite recently, have been sheltered, one-sided and quite comfortable. This is not the case in other countries, especially non-Western ones. The poster reminded me of many individuals I have known abroad and I still do not doubt he can add to our understanding of the world as it is.
Not with the modernizing, secularist model of Ataturk and his successors -- which btw entailed a good deal of personal freedom except in certain sensitive areas of politics like the Kurdish issue and the Turkish Communists and Islamists.
And Americans trying to smuggle hashish out of the country.
I didn't say I did understand it; rather I posted that Obama had multiple sources and did not share his insights with his People, but rather acted against their interest.
He had both official US and (no doubt sanitized for some time now, in consideration of the current occupant of the White House) Mossad intelligence, and he also had continuing contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood via back channels.
My point was that our President is playing games with us, to benefit the Islamists.
Ha ha ha. Look at his muslim Georgetown. Guess he thought he could having them winning just by putting their name on a bracket. But just like his Libya fiasco Georgetown goes down.