I actually started this hobby 10 1/2 years ago after the nets called Florida for Gore. I only had dialup but I kept on entering in county numbers from past elections and the election that night and became convinced that the state was too close to call. It took the nets about four hours to figure it out, but if you broke down the data it was obvious, given the turnout in counties. Then they called it for Bush and I had the same reaction, the data looked too close to call.
If you (all of us) separate yourself from your prejudices and hopes, and you just go where the numbers take you, you can make good projections.
What is your projection for this race?
So what is your best estimate (not guess) at 11:13 p.m. EDT of the winner of the race?
Projections would be a lot easier with good precinct-level numbers readily available. Partial reporting of counties can be problematic, depending on the county.
The two biggest Dem counties in the state are Dane and Milwaukee. Dane has a huge turnout today and Klop is outrunning Kerry 2000 in that county. In Milwaukee she's running behind Kerry 2000 with a lower then average turnout. In both counties 58% of the precincts are in.
Meanwhile Waukesha County is only 1/4th in and Prosser is up almost 40,000 votes. Now that isn't going to project to 160,000 votes, it's the larger precincts that have reported so far (otherwise we'd be talking a 40% greater turnout than in the 2000 Prez election). I think it's reasonable to believe that Prosser picks up another 40,000 there while Klop gains 40,000 from what remains in Dane and Milwaukee. That makes it a dead heat.
Except the other 70 counties comprised about 2/3rds of the electorate in 2000. And they went 53-47 for Bush. So the rest of the state, outside these three big counties (two Dem, one GOP), lean GOP by a few points.
I called the 2004 race early - I watch the Ohio countys come in - after Cleveland reported I knew Bush had it. That was about 10 pm, and again the 'nets kept the gullible people up all night.
So, what do you think of my call for Prosser? Klingongirl has "shot her wad" I think. Also, why do you think Milwaukee is so close? Hanky-panky?