Skip to comments.Sarah Palin can still win the GOP nomination
Posted on 05/19/2011 7:15:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Jimmy Carter never said malaise, Humphrey Bogart never said, play it again Sam, and Sarah Palin never said, I can see Russia from my front porch. But most people are convinced they did. As Yogi Berra quipped, I never said most of the things I said.
The caricaturing of Palin has led many political observers to cavalierly dismiss her chances of entering the 2012 GOP field and winning. My question is why?
At least one pundit sees the opportunity. Appearing on MSNBCs Andrea Mitchell show Monday, Time magazines Mark Halperin noted that Mike Huckabees decision to skip the 2012 GOP primary, leaves a big hole for Sarah Palin who can come in and take over that space that Huckabee left.
A new Gallup poll seems to confirm his analysis. As The Washington Posts Chris Cillizza writes,
the field remains decidedly muddled with no clear frontrunner. (Gallup doled out the past support for Huckabee/Trump based on the second place preferences of those voters.) Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney takes 20 percent to 18 percent for former Alaska governor Sarah Palin
Putting this in context, we now know that: 1). Mike Huckabee, a populist social conservative who won Iowa in 2008, isnt running, and 2). Gallup has Sarah Palin in second place just two points behind Mitt Romney. It is frankly stunning that this late in the game Palin still has a golden opportunity to win the nomination. (We also know, as the polling implies, the weak GOP field lacks a clear front runner to rally behind.)
And yet conventional wisdom seems to hold that Palin will not run and even if she does she cant win. The assumption is that Palin isnt serious enough. Once again, I think she is being underestimated.
These assumptions continue to inform the way news stories about Palin are framed. For example, media observers recently began noticing that Palin wasnt garnering quite as much press attention as before. This was largely portrayed as a sign that her influence may finally be waning but was that necessarily the right conclusion?
Controversy often generates attention, and while the media were busy covering Donald Trumps ridiculous antics this spring, Palin was delivering serious speeches in places like Wisconsin and visiting vitally important nations like Israel and India. This was under-reported.
Also worth noting is that Palin was recently the star guest at Tammy Haddads garden brunch (for those outside the Beltway, this is the whos who gathering of political insiders and muckety-mucks, held annually to coincide with the White House Correspondents Dinner). Palins attendance was reminiscent of another outsider, Ronald Reagan, who railed against DC elites, but attended dinner parties at Washington Post publisher Kay Grahams house. The old Palin would probably not have attended this lamestream media event the new Palin did.
Of course, its too early to know whether any of this foreshadows a presidential run, but consider this: If Palin were serious about running for president, isnt buttressing her foreign policy credentials by traveling and building bridges with at least some media elites precisely what she ought to be doing? Keep in mind, going back to Alaska, she has never run a conventional campaign she always started late and was the underdog. And the good news for Palin is that she has more room for reinvention and growth than most people might realize.
Her supporters raise a good point when they argue she is the most known, unknown figure in politics. What they mean is that, despite how ubiquitous she became, she never really had a chance to craft her own image. (During the campaign, Palin was second to Sen. John McCain and, by necessity, had to adopt his campaigns policies. And by the time the campaign ended, the media had already created the next iteration of the Palin brand.)
Dont discount the possibility that Palin may indeed be on the verge of launching her second (or is it third?) act. It is entirely plausible to believe that Palin could seize this opportunity, win Iowa and South Carolina, and then make a real run for it. Dont be surprised if she runs for president, and if she does, she can win.
Palin will win the nomination if she runs.
Really, then how come with 98% name id she is only polling 20%??????
McCain polled so bad in Dec of 07 that the media pronounced his campaign dead. Polls now mean nothing in 2012.
Sadly, you are right.
Come back to us, Mike Pence.
ROFLOL, sure, sure
Oh c’mon. Obama is extremely beatable by any candidate. Our challenge is to wisely choose who we want leading this country once Obama and the Dems are trounced in the election.
This is the tea party patriots time. I predict an overwhelming victory in 2012, provided we marginalize the GOP establishment.
“Sarah Palin can still win the GOP nomination”
Well of course she can. Of course, much like the lottery, if you don’t play you can’t win. I want her in, and sooner rather than later.
I'm certain the Obama Media already has versions of different stories to use against her (opposition research), but I also believe she has had time to plan a response to any attacks.
I'm warm to Michele Bachmann but truly think she would have great difficulty running against historical obstacles and a Republican Establishment which will not strongly support her. I don't know a heck of a lot about Herman Cain in a political sense. I do know that he too would be running against historical obstacles (a non-office holder winning the Presidency) and the Republican Establishment.
It appears that Gov. Palin is by far the strongest Conservative left (at present). Her advantages over others is she does have name recognition, she has had (political and business) executive experience and she is a tireless campaigner. She is also the only one who has had success running against the establishment. As was touched upon in the article, most of the Country really has never seen her in her own campaign.
Been my observation that some say Palin can't win because the Media hates her. Yet, we've ran candidates before the media kind of liked or promoted...Bob Dole, Bush 41 and John McCain to name a few. We didn't end up with the desired result.
As to those who say she can't win because she's stupid, or she's a mom, or she lacks experience, I would say why not watch her in the primary process (if she indeed runs) before making up your mind.
Even though I said I don't believe Cain or Bachmann can win, I'm willing to be persuaded.
Backing Bachmann for her position on illegal immigration is pretty legitimate IMO.
Michele has been my rep. and sen. state and federal for 10 yrs. and has done nothing but beg for money and vote. I need more then that.
Yea, 9.0 unemployment, $14 trillion debt and growing, medicare/medicade broke, social security broke, middle east on the verge of being on fire, gas prices at $4.00 a gallon, inflation increasing and 1/3 of the country don’t believe Obama is even legitimate to be president and you think that the only person who can beat Obama is Tim Pawlenty?? Ron Paul can beat this guy.. Get off the drugs.
One of the (many) things that turned some folks off of Ron Paul (You know, besides the crazy) were the behavior/manners of his followers both on FR and other places. If you (Palin or bust folks) devolve into that you are doing her no favors.
They all do that. All the polticians beg for money, especially conservatives because they don’t get cheat money and slush fund cash like dems.
A voting record is probably the best way to know what a person will do or not do.
I need more than talk. Words are not actions.
I was sitting around the other day thinking about who is right on the immigration issue. I remember fighting that bill a few years ago when Bush was pushing it.
I am tired of the mealy mouths “pathway to citizenship”. These hoards of illegals are breaking our bank and ruining our country.
Michele is also right on all the other issues.
Your argument style is a bit 7th grade-ish... I guess that’s why your so enthralled with Sarah, she’s not too bright so she tends to attract those who themselves aren’t too bright.
There is a pathway to citizenship. That would be SOUTH.
Right back to where they are a citizen.
The whole world seems to want to make up Sarah’s mind for her on lots and lots of things. Including some good folks here on FR.
In the end, Sarah will make up her own mind. Wouldn’t that be refreshing in a president?
Why “yes they can” go home and stay there.