Tho it depends entirely upon what you define as "history".....history shows nothing of the sort. You probably were not even alive, but do a little reading about Goldwater's 1964 run. You'll learn something.
LOL.
Your "nothing of the sort" remark is hyperbole.
You gave me only one election, way back in 1964, as an example that contradicts my claim. That was back when there were many more conservative-leaning Democrats who traditionally voted Democrat. That tradition, almost 50 years later is out the window. Today, most conservative-leaning voters are either Republicans or Independents who vote Republican in the general election.
Meanwhile I've given you 1976, 1980 and 1996 as examples that contradict your claim that the polls this far out are reliable.
As to my guess, know this, "that which can be asserted without facts, can also be dismissed without facts." I am therefore dismissing your "guess"; as you can freely and rightly dismiss mine. Now that both our guesses have been dismissed....however bad they may be....or untimely....or biased.....we've only the polls to help us along. And now.....we're right back where we started.
No we aren't back to where we started.
You're playing sematic games with the word "guess". One can make a guess based on no information and one can make an educated guess based on the information before them and based on the probability that that information is correct.
I gave you very specific information why I said that she would get 43% of the vote for starters, and you come back to me and tell me that my assertion is without facts.
And as I said, that 43% is just for starters.
The better race to compare is Carter in 1980. Carter was an incumbent that had a poor economic record as well as being extremely liberal and he was incapable of hiding it during the campaign.
Logic n reason's "guess" is totally illogical and unreasoned.