Well, seems to me turnout was the main issue here.
In Nov Lee won this seat roughly 150k to 50k over the dem.
So, it looks like the dem is going to wind up with around the same 50k, maybe slightly less, than the party got in Novemeber.
But the GOP went from 150k for Lee to around 40k this time.
What happened to the other 110k who voted Republican just 6 months ago. If even 10% of them showed up we’d have held the seat.
The dems didn’t find any new voters. They just were able to motivate nearly all of the same ones who came out in the fall to come out again.
For some reason, the GOP couldn’t do the same. Only around 30% of those who voted last fall showed up.
I don’t know if they didn’t do a good job of GOTV, of publicizing the election, of keeping people informed, if the candidate was bad, etc... I didn’t reall follow this.
But it’s hard to understand how you go frm o150,000 to 40,000 in 6 months in a heavily GOP district that has delivered heavy GOP wins for quite some time,
Well, Ryan’s budget was a nice effort but it obviously has no chance now. Not that it did before. There weer never 60 votes in the Senate for it, and there were never going to be. So I never really got the big deal over it. It never had any chance of becoming law.
I guess the good news is that all of the 2012 candidates can now move on from it and not have to defend it. They can just say “look, it was a good plan, I still think it has a lot of positive elements. I think the medicare proposals obviously raised a lot of valid concerns and those will have to be addressed. I think there are still plenty of good ideas in it and it’s a good starting point but we need to figure out a way to do it that allays people’s concerns over medicare. I’m confident we can”
You got it ! :)
The base feels BETRAYED and SCAMMED by these DC Insiders /
K street scam artists posing as the GOP leaders !
This low GOP turn out was all about Bonehead , Cantor and company betraying us.
In a word: complacency.
Apparently nobody really liked Corwin. Also, Lee left in disgrace, and that turns off voters. People who just voted for a guy who turned out to be a creepy lying stalker-guy maybe don’t want to go vote again.
This was a VERY expensive loss. Corwin(R) herself spent about $2.6 million of her own money to get about 40,000 votes. That comes out to $68/vote. (By contrast, Meg Whitman spent about $144 million out of her own pocket to get about 4 million votes in last year’s governors race in California. That comes out to roughly $35/vote.) Hochul(D) was surely outspent.
Outside money: the main spenders for Corwin were $700K from Karl Rove’s American Crossroads, $100K from the American Action Network, and $425K from the NRCC (totaling about $1.2 million).
For Hochul, it wound up as $371K from the House Majority PAC, $111K from the Communications Workers of America, $75K from SEIU 1199, and $267K from the DCCC (totalling $824K). Hochul herself raised around a million bucks.
Back in April, when Corwin seemed like a viable conservative, I sent her $100.
Note to self: NEVER, ever send money to a candidate who spends $68/vote and loses!
(Corwin could have passed out $50 bills to voters and come out ahead.)