Rasmussen: Plurality of GOP primary voters prefer Palin to stay out in 2012

Hotair ^ | 06/16/2011 | Ed Morrissey

[SeekAndFind]

Rasmussen released the second part of its GOP primary polling this morning, this time concerning those potential candidates not in the race. The survey of likely Republican primary voters does not indicate a massive desire for more candidates to jump into the race, but support for bids by Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani exceeds opposition. That isn’t true for Sarah Palin:

A plurality of Republican primary voters think it would be good for Texas Governor Rick Perry to jump into the party’s presidential race and bad for the party if former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin joined the field. They are evenly divided about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Thirty-six percent (36%) also feel it would be good for the GOP if Perry enters the race. Only 21% say it would be bad for the party, while 26% think it would have no impact. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.

As for Giuliani, best known for his leadership in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, 38% of likely primary voters believe it would be good for their party if he joins the presidential race. Nearly as many (35%), however, see his candidacy as bad for the GOP. Nineteen percent (19%) say it would have no impact.

Earlier, commenters on the first Rasmussen release wondered why the pollster didn’t include potential candidates in the survey, and this answers the question. None of the three got above 36% in demand for a run. Given the lack of any other potential candidates, this appears to bolster the argument that likely primary voters see the current field as sufficient.

The internals don’t look good for Palin in this instance. In almost all demographics, opposition to a primary bid outstrips support. Among men, it’s a 42/42 tie, but among women, it’s a double-digit deficit at 28/49. Palin trails in every age demographic and loses a majority among 40-49YOs, 34/51; she also loses a majority among independents planning to vote in the GOP primaries, 34/53. Black voters (53/26), those unsure of their ideology (70/27), and Tea Party members (49/33) support the idea of a Palin candidacy. Evangelicals are the only religious denomination to support a Palin run, but at a surprisingly low 44/38 mark. Palin also picks up support from lower-income levels below $40K and the $60-75K demo, but loses the other income demos.

The numbers for Perry and Giuliani aren’t bad, but they’re not “draft”-level figures, either. A Perry run would be seen positively across the board, but not terribly enthusiastically. He actually gets a majority of Tea Party voters (53/17), scoring better among them than Palin, and a majority among black voters, as does Giuliani, who also gets a majority of 30-39YOs. Otherwise, support for any of the three is rather tepid, at least at this point.

One interesting point: Black voters are enthusiastic about all three potential bids, by a majority in each case. They don’t appear to be satisfied with the current field.

[LibLieSlayer]

You will not find me extolling rasmussen under any circumstances. Check my past posting... I have studied scotty and he is not his father and his polling does not live up to the rasmussen name.

LLS

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

I’ve been McCained once and that’s all it takes.

BINGO.

[rwrcpa1]

Doesn’t that mean that 55% think it’s either a good idea or don’t have an opinion? Isn’t that the real headline?

[EternalVigilance]

[LibLieSlayer]

That is some sauced up polling right there!

TWO ALL BEEF PATTIES... SPECIAL SAUCE... LETTUCE CHEESE... PICKLES... ONIONS... ON A SESAME SEED BUN.

LLS

[Norseman]

>>These are female REPUBLICAN primary voters, not shallow, flighty Democrats, therefore I don’t believe it’s about Palin’s looks. It has to be something else.<<

I suspect it’s because Republican women have been more susceptible to the MSM’s standard line that Palin “can’t win.” As a result she will have to draw more heavily from the male voters to obtain the nomination, assuming she runs. Once she’s nominated, however, those Republican women will certainly have no trouble picking Palin over Obama.

The question then becomes whether Independent women will reflexively vote for Obama simply because he’s male. If we reach that point it’s going to be pretty obvious which of the two has the biggest pair of....well, you get the picture. (Answer: not Obama)

I also think it’s pretty silly to overlook the possibility that a lot of women, Dems and Independents both, will vote for either Palin or Bachmann just to break the highest glass ceiling in the world once and for all. Put Rubio on the ticket with either one of them and I think they’d be tough to stop even if Obama had a mediocre record, and his record is way, way below mediocre.

I’m also wondering if some elements of the MSM won’t soon consider deserting their posts given current trends against unions, global warming, socialism, ethanol subsidies, etc. Some of them have got to be wondering why John Stossel seems to be having such a good time while they themselves are always so miserable.

[Spartan79]

Because if she declares, she has to give up the book profits ...

What kind of horses**t is that. I suppose Obummer had to give up his book profits when he started running for president in, what, 2004?

[deport]

Doesn’t that mean that 55% think it’s either a good idea or don’t have an opinion? Isn’t that the real headline?

---

Correct. If you click the Rassmussen link it will give you the following:

Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% of Likely GOP Primary Voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin enters the race, but 45% believe it would be bad for the party. Just 11% say it would have no impact.

[dforest]

Do you really think that everyone in the media told Tpaw, Oh yeah run, you have a great chance? The polls are all in your favor TPaw. LOL

He is running because he wants to, not because he has a horde of loving fans. His chances are slim, yet he entered.

[FourPeas]

I only did a quick look-through on the specifics; can you help me find how they cherry picked?

[Luke21]

We just read polls that voters wanted another choice. Which one is it? These people do nothing but practice their own psychological projections.

[Once-Ler]

Which poll gets sold to more drive-by media outlets. The one that verifies huge crowds to see Palin, and huge interest in media, and big book sales...or the one that verifies the liberal media hatred of Palin?

I don't believe the media polls.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Look back to Newt Gingrich. The scandal was over ethics in regards to his book. But writing future books while in office is what I was referring to. Palin will lose that ability to write under the ethics protocol.

Which is why Obama has someone else write the books for him in all cases. He scammed a loophole from what I understand.

[FourPeas]

It would be interesting to see someone do polling on the reason(s) why conservative women aren’t favorable to Gov. Palin running. I’m skeptical that it’s because she’s pretty.

[nopardons]

Oh please............if she doesn't run, she falls off the map; so to speak.Supporting other candidates actually reduces her "star power" as far as speaking fees go.

She doesn't have a show on T.V., she doesn't show up on FOX all that much and she had one, JUST ONE, "reality" show....which was a one shot deal.

I wasn't aware that the Palin family were making and selling T-shirts.

She and her family have been put through the wringer without her running for anything and still are. There isn't anything else that can be thrown at her/them and it won't stop, if she doesn't enter the primaries!

Your "concern troll" posts are patently ridiculous; not to mention smelling of FLOP SWEAT.

[deport]

So Rassmussen is pure unadulterated horse crap in LLS’s opinion. In LLS’s opinion which poll or polls are pure as the wind driven snow and should be taken as gospel?

[Vendome]

Nope. It’s my own poll and I don’t believe theirs.

I hear from more people anticipating here entrance than those who want her out.

I even convince a few that Romney made no sense in their view of who should represent their ideal.

After informing them of a few things and asking where this guy has been for the last two years they came back a few days later and had no idea about him but, he is definitely not their choice any longer.

They will a little longer to see what happens.

Besides, if Sarah was the only thing that gave enough life to McCain’s candidacty so it wouldn’t fall off a cliff when Barry handed his Axx to him in a landslide then who else would excite the base?

[Once-Ler]

Do you really think that everyone in the media told Tpaw, Oh yeah run, you have a great chance? The polls are all in your favor TPaw. LOL

Your analogy would be true if the media was wetting themselves over getting his tens of thousands of his emails, or chasing him around on his vacation, or devoting dozens of hours to mischaracterizing his knowledge of Paul Revere. Do you really not see Palin Derangement Syndrome in the media?

I didn't say anything about T-Paw. Nobody is trying to stop him from running. However, the liberal media has done everything it can to discourage Palin from running. I believe the liberal media lies, and I believe they are scared of Palin.

He is running because he wants to, not because he has a horde of loving fans. His chances are slim, yet he entered.

Good for TPaw. I got no beef with Tim. If he wins he will be 1000% better than 0. I bet TPaw believes his chances are improved with a horde of loving fans (with deep pockets and willing to crawl over broken glass to vote for him), and I bet he's glad he has not faced the scrutiny that Palin has.

[jpsb]

Well the media has successfully sold two ideas, the first is that Palin is not competent to be president and the second is that Palin can not win. Both are of course lies but the media repeats them often. The most damaging is the first. To over come this lie Palin has to speak directly to the people and she will need to do that 5 times a day. Her problem, and it is a problem, is that she has it in for the media, she needs to get over that or rise above it, or that ever, she could take a lesson from MB when dealing with hostile media, screw them, ignore the question and say what you want to say (with a smile) and don't allow yourself to be draw into a pissing match.

[FourPeas]

The plural of anecdote isn’t data. There actually is science behind a well-designed survey.