Posted on 09/28/2011 1:00:33 PM PDT by cc2k
Mike McCalister, who got 10% of the vote in the Republican primary for Governor last year, continues to lead the GOP Senate field in Florida. He's at 17% to 13% for George LeMieux, 9% for Adam Hasner, and 3% for Craig Miller with 58% of voters undecided.
That has to be seen as very good news for Bill Nelson. McCalister's chances of winning the nomination in the end are close to nothing. But the fact that he's leading is reflective of a pretty weak pool of Republican candidates and also a lack of enthusiasm for any of those folks from the GOP base. It's quite a contrast from, for instance, Massachusetts where the previously unknown (to the broader electorate) Elizabeth Warren announced her Senate bid and instantaneously shot out to greater than 50% support with primary voters.
Continue reading at Public Policy Polling website.
The full poll data, with internals is also available.
Press Release and Poll internals, "Romney, McCalister lead Florida GOP primary races." (PDF version, 19 pages)
This was a survey of 472 Republican primary voters conducted between September 22 and September 25. It also shows Romney winning over Perry. Since the big debate in Orlando was in the middle of the sampling period, I'd take some of the presidential results with a grain of salt. I would suspect there will be a lot of movement on that by next month.
I've seen this McCallister guy, and he has my full support for this. I actually voted for him for Governor last year after seeing him several times in the last month before the Primary last August. He's a veteran, a retired colonel who was at McDill directing Special Operations. I think he's the best Republican candidate to peal away the veterans from Bill Nelson. And, in Florida, I don't see a clear path to victory over Nelson without very strong support from Veterans.
Hasner talks a good game but he's really establishment mush. Haridopolous actually had the sense to withdraw. LeMieux = Crist II, he started putting on the conservative act as soon as he was appointed. Craig Miller is okay for what he is, a decent center-right businessman, but there's no reason to support him over McCalister.
CPAC-FL had a straw poll, and Adam Hasner won.
I listened to all the speeches by all four candidates there, and Adam has my vote.
I haven’t endorsed here. Still, the PPP Democrat Poll is going to badmouth any GOP candidate. Nelson hasn’t been a popular pol in FL since probably after his election almost a dozen years ago. Name or no name, Nelson’s in trouble, and unless the Republican is extremely poor or extremely unpopular (KH), he cannot bank on reelection.
FUnny thing is if Charlie Crist, the ex governor, had played his hand right and conceded the last Senator race without an independent run, he would be a shoe-in for a nominee.
I hadn’t heard of Colonel McCalister before. He sounds just fine to me.
These numbers are terrible for former Senator Peppy LePew (I’d rather spell “McCalister” any day) and Hasner.
And thank God Haridopolous (copy/pasted it) quit. I’d have had to gone Ellis island on him and called him “Hardy”. ;)
Absolutely not true. The reason Crist quit the GOP race and ran indy is because conservatives didn’t want his RINO ass and Rubio came out of no where to smoke him. Conservatives wouldn’t want Crist in 2012 anymore they did in 2010.
Well, the anecdotal sampling I've done with veterans is that Nelson does pretty good with his pandering to that group. If he manages to squeak by, it will be the Vets that carry him. That's where I really think a retired Colonel with 20 years of service is going to draw more than a career politician.
fieldmarshaldj wrote:
Name or no name, Nelson’s in trouble, and unless the Republican is extremely poor or extremely unpopular (KH), he cannot bank on reelection.
Also, the crosstabs for favorable/unfavorable were interesting. Hasner had bigger unfavorable numbers basically across the board. I didn't see anyplace where his favorable number was higher than his unfavorable. Of course, with 70%+ in the "Not sure" category, it's hard to say whether that will be a problem. I was also surprised that LeMieux was viewed more unfavorably and less favorably by moderates and liberals (the few there were in this poll). Being moderate doesn't even impress moderates and liberals.
I also agree with you about this polling outfit. I don't necessarily trust them. So take everything from them with a grain of salt, and save a grain of salt for any of my observations based on their polling results, too.
I'm not so sure about that. He would have had the best name recognition, that's for sure. But the hug would have come back to haunt the orange guy. Even Bill Nelson is smart enough not to hug President Downgrade. Conservatives wouldn't have voted for Crist.
VRW Conspirator wrote:
FUnny thing is if Charlie Crist, the ex governor, had played his hand right and conceded the last Senator race without an independent run, he would be a shoe-in for a nominee.
Plus, your premise really means an entirely different landscape than we have today. If Crist had fought fair or conceded, we might not have had Governor Scott (because a "party unity" endorsement from Crist would probably have pushed McCollum over the top in last summer's primary).
I'm really glad that Crist chose the path he did. He took the high speed train to irrelevancy and saved us some fights.
Crist may not be entirely gone. I mentioned some scuttlebutt that he may make his official switch to the Democrats soon and his name is being floated to run against Congressman Bill Young.
Ping for Florida
I hope their newly passed “fair Districts amendments” don’t end up squirreling up Florida redistricting. It ticks me off to see that stuff implemented in a Republican-controlled state while the rats gerrymander mine.
I had rooted for Adam Hasner, whose campaign is not taking off like I had expected it to. I guess we won’t have a clear picture of how the field is shaping up for a while.
I'm GLAD the race is wide open, I don't like when self-proclaimed “conservative leaders” anoint someone behind closed doors early in the process and announce all conservatives “have to” support him; anymore than when I like RINOs doing that. I'll vet the candidates myself and decide which one is best, thank you very much. This isn't a case of 1 month before a primary and 8 conservatives beating each other up while an Arlen Specter type-RINO is pulling ahead.
In Illinois, the “conservative leaders” who announce a “consensus choice” have picked notoriously poor candidates... John Cox, Jim Oberweis, Patrick Hughes, etc. Need I say more? Obviously, Florida Republicans don't have need as bad a track record but even I am starting to get buyer's remorse with Marco Rubio in spite the fact he's a “rising star” in the GOP. Although he's nowhere aa bad as Mel Martinez, he appears to be wear on immigration as well. I warned conservatives to vet this guy before anointing him as the “conservative choice” but it feel on deaf ears. Of course, once the race evolved into a Rubio vs. Crist contest, it was a no-brainer which was better.
Out of curiosity, I visited Mike McCalister’s website and aside from informing me (about 8 times on his homepage) that he's a retired Colonel, it didn't tell me much. How about giving up a platform and policy positions, Col.? What's your vision for Florida? I pretty much figured out you're a colonel within 5 seconds, you don't need to keep reminding me.
http://www.mikemccalisterforsenate.com/
George LeMieux actually sounds pretty good on paper, and as I've noted his track record in the Senate was actually decent. But I will have to concede that the Charlie Crist connection raises way too many red flags, and will probably kill the guy's chances. I like him but don't trust him.
http://www.georgeforflorida.com/
Adam Hasner... where's the website? It just directs me to his facebook page. He wants conservatives to know that he's THE conservative champion in this race and you gotta get aboard right now and sign up for his campaign, giving out your contact info, to learn more... hmm. I'm getting an Adam Andrejewski 2010 vibe here.
http://www.adamhasner.com/
The candidates I liked best so far are probably two long shots, Craig Miller (http://miller2012.com/issues/) and
Marielena Stuart (http://www.marielenastuartforussenate2012.com/). Both seem to have an inspiring life story and a detailed solidly conservative policy plan they're not afraid to tell you. I don't know if either has a snowball's chance in hell but it would ashamed if they were dismissed this early in the process. I admire Craig's service in Vietnam and Marielena Stuart could be a face of the new GOP in much the same way Susana Martinez is. Hard to call the GOP racist when we have outspoken conservative latinas. I'm not too fond of her message “en espanol” but I'll give her a break since she's a Cuban-american so that's her natural constituency. Two Cuban-american senators from FL? Why not, if Adam gets the nod it will be two former state house leaders as Senators. And B-1 Bob endorsed Marielena! (okay he's a little flakey but you gotta admit he always stands for staunch conservatives)
We'll see how this develops.
You copied and pasted Haridopolos’s name, and I think that you still misspelled his name.
My preferred turn of events in FL is for Allen West to run for the Senate and have Adam Hasner switch to the FL-22 race.
Stuart sounds great, but can she run a successful statewide race in as large a state as FL? I’d rather have her run for the House in FL-25, where incumbent Republican David Rivera has some pretty bad ethics scandals and should probably step aside.
LOL, well I copy/pasted off Crichton. ;D
Col. McCalister is a strong conservative. He has my support and my vote.
I will certainly be out voting. It is time for Bill Nelson to retire!
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I've met George a couple of times and he comes across as a true conservative, articulate and smart. I like that he immediately endorsed Rubio and denounced Crist when he jumped the GOP ship during the 2010 primary.
LeMieux’s got a very strong conservative voting record and is proudly pro-life.
He'd be good debating Nelson on his liberal record since he's actually been in the Senate.
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