Posted on 12/16/2011 7:59:19 AM PST by xzins
Antsy Voters Look for a Third Way
When Perot First Ran, 39% Were Dissatisfied; Today It’s 81%. ’Something Is Going to Explode’ •The nation’s dismay with Washington turns up in an array of polling results. To understand why the moment may be ripe for a real surprise next November, consider just these numbers: Ross Perot, who won nearly one in five votes in 1992 to become the most successful independent candidate in modern presidential politics, ran at a moment when 39% of Americans said they were dissatisfied with how the nation was being governed. Today, Gallup reports, 81% say they are dissatisfied. Pollsters and politicians of both parties say those and a slate of similar findings show that voters have become unusually open to an independent presidential run next year. Over half of voters now tell Gallup that a third party is needed, up from 40% in 2003. Seven in 10 think the country is on the wrong track. Faith in the two parties is scraping all-time lows.
So far, no national figure has stepped forward to run outside the two-party system. But some veteran pollsters say public disenchantment is so strong that someone is bound to try to fill the vacuum. And the opportunity is only likely to grow, they say, with the collapse this week of Congress’s bipartisan deficit-cutting committee, which many read as another sign of Washington’s inability to solve problems.
"There’s just too much unrest out there for this to be put back in the box," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart. "Something is going to explode."
Sen. John McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee, told a political forum earlier this month that unless both parties change, an independent "fed-up" candidate is inevitable in 2012.
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Two of the people talked about as possible candidates are New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a billionaire who could fund his own campaign, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, a current GOP presidential contender. Both men have waved off talk of an independent run. But Mr. Bloomberg rebuked both political parties after the deficit talks failed, saying the blame lies "on both sides of the aisle and both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue." Mr. Paul recently told radio host Sean Hannity that he has "no intention’’ of making an independent run if he fails to secure the GOP nomination—but wouldn’t rule out such a bid.
A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that 18% of likely voters would support Mr. Paul in a three-way race against President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, giving the president a wider lead over Mr. Romney than in a two-man race. The level of support for Mr. Paul in that scenario astonished Mr. Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey.
The country has seen upstart presidential bids before: George Wallace in 1968; John Anderson in 1980; Mr. Perot in 1992 and 1996, to name a few. In 2000, Ralph Nader got less than 3% of the national vote, but his tally in some states—Florida, above all—may have tipped the election.
But by nearly all metrics, the political atmosphere is fouler now than even in 1992, when Mr. Perot ran on opposition to federal deficit spending and the North American Free Trade Agreement.
At one point, a Gallup survey showed Mr. Perot leading then-President George H.W. Bush and then-Gov. Bill Clinton. "What we saw then pales in comparison to the anger and frustration now," said Stan Greenberg, who conducted polling for Mr. Clinton’s 1992 campaign. "Both parties are crashing in popularity at the same time. It’s a race to the bottom."
Pockets of disenchantment appear to be growing across the political spectrum. The latest Journal poll found blue-collar voters, "soft Democrats" and voters under 34 to be the most enthusiastic about a third-party bid. Those most in favor of an independent run by Mr. Paul were rural voters, men and "soft Republicans." Many conservatives fear that tea-party activists could bolt to a renegade candidate if Republicans in coming months nominate a relative moderate, such as Mr. Romney, who fails to stir excitement among activists and voters on the right.
Not everyone believes an outside insurgency is such a given next year. Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster, notes that Mr. Perot’s campaign sprang up amid "rancorous dissatisfaction" among Republicans toward then-President Bush, "and Democrats just don’t feel that way toward Obama."
But there’s a strong possibility that a challenger will emerge to take on the two parties’ nominees, if only because a new group called Americans Elect is working to assure national ballot access for an independent candidate to be picked in June.
Third-party candidates always struggle to gather the signatures and clear the hurdles needed to put themselves before voters in all 50 states. With thousands of volunteers and a bankroll of over $20 million—most of it from rich donors—Americans Elect is doing that work up front. The group is on eight state ballots now and is shooting to be on more than half by the end of the year.
"We are reimagining the way we nominate a presidential ticket," said Kahlil Byrd, the group’s chief executive officer and a onetime Democratic operative in Massachusetts.
Formed by a collection of disenchanted former political operatives and campaign donors, the nonprofit group claims to have aroused interest among dozens of politicians, business executives and former military officers, though it declines to mention any names. The group says it will select its candidate through a public, online convention in June. The winner will be required to pick a running mate from a different party, then fund and organize his or her own campaign.
Republican strategist Mark McKinnon, who is advising the group, said some of the names popping up include former Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, none of whom have given any public hint they are eyeing a run.
Donald Trump says he is prepared to fund his own campaign starting next spring "if he is not satisfied with who the Republican nominee is" and doesn’t believe that person can beat Mr. Obama, says the real estate mogul’s aide, Michael Cohen. Mr. Trump has made a number of similar feints in the past.
Talk of third-party presidential bids gives most Republicans a chill. Even a centrist independent, they fear, would sap votes from the Republican nominee and grease the way for Mr. Obama’s re-election.
"I can see very clearly how the ground is ripe for this," says Ms. Conway, the Republican pollster. "But in no way would it be good for us."
Lately, the ERs pick the Rep. nominee and the Cs have to hold their nose and vote for them.
When the ER wins, he usually flames out due to his lack of conservatism, which opens the door for the DL to win the next election.
America keeps heading leftward as a result and you have bitches from these two parties (DL and ER) promising too much to too many, which is why we're where we are today.
*also Damned Liars
George Wallace won 5 states in 1968, splitting the DEMOCRAT vote and giving Nixon the win.
I don’t recall caring if you respect my opinion.
However, to put it bluntly: Romney IS Obama.
There is no practical difference.
Period.
“If obama is reelected due to a conservative third party candidate it is NOT the fault of the voters.”
The voters are those who elect our leaders. For far too long we have ALL been somewhat apathetic to the continuing increase of immorality, corruption and secularism within our own culture. We (yes, I’m speaking generally) continue to look for merely human solutions.
WE need to all grow up and take a part of the blame....and we need to seek solutions from above...FIRST.
“If my people who bear my name humble themselves, and pray and seek my presence and turn from their wicked ways, then I will listen from heaven and forgive their sins and restore their country.” II Chronicles 7:14
Without God, WE will not have good leaders. We will continue to make unwise choices as a nation.
With God, Obama can’t hurt us.
Without God, George Washington couldn’t save us.
Yes, that’s true. It can work to the benefit of the Republican party if a 3rd party pulls voters from the demonrat side.
However, that is not the issue.
The issue is whether it’s curtains time for the Republican Party.
If the RP can nominate Mitt Romney, then they are not a God-fearing, conservative party.
They will have shown themselves to be a liberal party no different than the Demonrat Party, and that renders them unsupportable by me.
Romney is Teddy Kennedy’s and John Kerry’s best friend.
Romney = Obama
Romney is a big government, pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, anti-gun, pro-government health care, pro-tax and spend liberal.
I will NOT vote for him in any capacity.
EVER!
I’m one who won’t bolt, no matter who wins the Republican nomination. America won’t endure another four years of obama, and that is all a third party offers.
So you had rather have a pro-abortionist Obama who also is destroying our nation? Don’t not vote, don’t write-in and don’t third party. Don’t help re-elect Obama. At least, Romney is not out to destroy us. I am not a Romney supporter and he is the last one on my list, other than Paul and Bachmann. But I would vote for any of them. If someone other than the current candidates, somehow, comes out of the GOP convention, I would support that person.
Don’t get me wrong I WILL NOT VOTE for Mittens BUT I DAMN SURE will NOT vote for ANY “3rd” “Party”! If Mittens is the “GOP” nomintee the I will leave the US President line item blank(unvoted) and just vote downticket.
Laura Ingraham alluded to some group with $22 million for a 3rd party candidate a couple weeks ago....it’s an Obama DREAM!!! (And likely financed by those financing Obama, also). I will vote for whomever we choose against Obama....ANYONE is better...but, I do fear that Destruction (of the USA) is coming, no matter WHICH candidate wins.
Not really. It depends who leads the ticket.
I suspect that if Rick Perry or Sarah Palin led the ticket that they could well win.
Even Trump would stand a chance. In his case, he would have the cash to make his opponents’ attacks less effective.
Just offering possibilities, but I think you get my point.
They are at best a protest vote.
It would be a sane move for the conservatives to unite in a 3rd party.
I’ll add this. If I can;t vote for the nominee, I’ll skip the president and vote downticket.
Amen!
“xzins” = “3rd Party Pimpage”
A very large protest vote does get attention. It shows how many voters you lost and where and if it would have made a difference if you had run a different candidate or supported a different policy.
There is also the possibility with such disaffection that the right candidate could actually win the election.
Finally, the only way to build a new party is to begin someplace.
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