PPP: Paul leads Iowa, Gingrich drops to 3rd (Poll analysis from Ed Morrissey and others)

Hot Air ^ | 12/19/2011 | Ed Morrissey

[TBBT]

PPP says that they are polling likely Republican caucus-goers, but there’s a reason for a little skepticism on their sample. At 597 respondents, the size is respectable enough, but its composition and definition of “likely” is quite shaky. Only a little over half (55%) bothered to caucus with Republicans in 2008, an election primary with as much publicity and import as this one. Thirteen percent caucused with the Democrats, which is reasonable because (a) Democrats aren’t conducting a primary this cycle, and (b) some who caucused with Democrats might be inclined to support Republicans this year.

However, almost a third (32%) didn’t caucus with either party in 2008. How can they be considered “likely” caucus-goers in this cycle? It can’t be because Ron Paul is running this time, because he was running in 2008 as well.

There are other reasons for skepticism. RealClearPolitics notes two other polls taken in almost the same timeframe as PPP’s survey, and Paul was below 20% in both (Rasmussen and Insider Advantage). They all show fairly close margins, but the PPP looks like a bit of an outlier — at least for now.

[Ranjit]

In Iowa, If I am righ Ind and Dems are allowed to vote in Republican Primary. Hence forth Ron Paul is leading. Gingrich is loosing support & it was expected. Also, the more conservatives are getting some traction. Michelle, Sanatorum(going to surprise people with strong showing) but at the end of the day Mitt Romney with good organization will win Iowa.

Wrap it up guys ! All along it was mitt romney & we wasted all of our time by switching from michelle to perry to cain to gingrich and back to our establishment. Hope, mitt romney selects some real good conservative VP.

[CSI007]

Let’s hope this spells the end of Newts Candidacy.

His comments on the courts over the weekend has really hurt him.

There is still time for a REAL conservative to take the lead. Time is running out but there are two still in the fight that can rise to the occasion.

[larryleo]

Let’s say Ron Paul wins Iowa. Mitt Romney wins NH. Newt wins SC and Fla. Who is in the lead? Newt. Next up Nevada where Newt has been polling well. I still like Newt to win this thing. But unfortunately, negative ads rather than substance are winning out in Iowa and if that carries from state to state - then I really give up. If this poll is accurate, Iowans either don’t care enough to pay attention or like to be told who to vote for and are too lazy to think for themselves. RON PAUL LEFT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND SHOULD BE RUNNING AS THE LIBERTARIAN PARTY NOMINEE AND WOULD WAIT FOR IRAN TO GET A NUKE UNDER THE NAIVE NOTION THAT IT’S SIMPLY NOT OUR BUSINESS, YET HE’S LEADING THE POLL. YOU MUST BE KIDDING.

[GOPyouth]

Good catch by Morrissey on the details. There was another a month or so ago where roughly 30% of “likely” voters said they would even caucus.

[Proudcongal]

The problem with the poll is that it’s just not likely to be true, though. We have a benchmark for evaluating this poll: 2008 Iowa caucus entrance polls. The partisan alignment is all wrong: In 2008 the caucuses, being closed of course, included 86% self-identified Republicans, 13% self-identified Independents who presumably registered Republican to caucus, 1% Democrats, 1% “Other.” PPP’s poll drops the Republican proportion to 75%, raises Independents to 19%, and raises Democrats to 5%. Guess who’s helped by both of those shifts, which are far outside the Margin of Error and so predict genuine, large shifts in the partisan makeup of the closed Iowa caucuses. That’s right: Ron Paul, who wins 40% of Democrats, 34% of Independents, but only 19% of Republicans according to the poll.

According to this, the poll is obviously flawed. It's no secret that the goal is to demoralize conservatives/Gingrich supporters. One has to wonder why the tweaking of the parties. My guess would be that according to the actual caucus numbers, Gingrich is leading, Paul is second and Romney is 3rd. The pollsters decided to play with the numbers to make Paul 1st, Romney 2nd and Newt 3rd in order to demoralize conservatives into panicking and voting for Romney with the assumption that Gingrich can't win, come election day. Just a theory.

[Proudcongal]

Let’s say Ron Paul wins Iowa. Mitt Romney wins NH. Newt wins SC and Fla. Who is in the lead? Newt. Next up Nevada where Newt has been polling well. I still like Newt to win this thing. But unfortunately, negative ads rather than substance are winning out in Iowa and if that carries from state to state - then I really give up.

You're right about who would be in the lead by the time Nevada rolls around. But giving up is exactly the goal of the pollsters and establishment. Republicans don't like Romney, period. This isn't a general election, it's Republicans so the pollsters know they can't put Romney on top because it would be even more laughable than to have Paul on top. We have to hope that conservatives vote rather than give up which is exactly what the goal is.

[Tex-Con-Man]

There are plenty of people who would benefit from Ron Paul doing well in Iowa. Very few of them are conservative and Republican.

The money and organization behind Paul's surge in Iowa isn't real and won't sustain very far into the primaries.

[Laserman]

It is time that the first primaries of the election season include several states on the same day. That way only REAL candidates, with real support can run a viable campaign in all states and not sway the future primaries by just concentrating on one state.