Posted on 12/24/2011 3:58:12 AM PST by SMGFan
TRENTON — U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman is the odd man out. A panel approved the reconfiguration of New Jersey’s congressional districts Friday — reducing the number from 13 to 12 — and Rothman, a Democrat representing the 9th District, was left staring at his potential demise. After a week of wrangling between six-member teams of Republicans and Democrats culminated with a tie-breaking vote, Rothman, a 15-year congressional veteran from Bergen County, was drawn into a district that favors a Republican incumbent. Rothman’s hometown of Fair Lawn ended up in the 5th District, represented by Scott Garrett, after Republicans persuaded John Farmer Jr., dean of the Rutgers-Newark law school who was chosen to cast the deciding vote, to side with their proposal. But it’s no "fair fight," as some billed a potential matchup between Rothman and Garrett. The district largely resembles Garrett’s previous one — made up primarily of Warren, Sussex and northern Bergen counties — and gives the Republican a partisan advantage. Much of Rothman’s district was merged with that of U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-8th Dist.) of Paterson. The question after the final vote at the Statehouse was whether Rothman would run against Garrett in a district weighted against him or move to challenge another Democrat in a primary. Friday, he wasn’t saying.
(Excerpt) Read more at nj.com ...
Steve Rothman was one of the more annoying members of the Judiciary during the impeachment. I’ll be glad to see him go.
*boohoo* daily kos says election discussion
“But unless Rothman can win the “fair fight,” it looks like we might come out of 2012 with a 6-6 delegation in a decidedly blue state. New Jersey is a prime example of how hard it can be to create a Dem-friendly map, without resorting to bacon-mander techniques, in a state where the Dem votes are so heavily concentrated in the cities and the suburbs have a mostly light-red hue.”
I’m shocked that the tie-breaking “Independent” chose the Republican compromise map; NJ Dems got the tie-breaker to pick their plan in 1991 and 2001.
Rothman has virtually no chance to beat Garrett in the NJ-05; if he wants to stay in Congress, his only shot is to run against Pascrell in the redrawn NJ-09, where he likely represents about half the voters. Pascrell is very fortunate that they didn’t append the cities of Passaic or Paterson to the Hispanic-majority NJ-13 (now renumbered the NJ-08) and/or the black majority NJ-10, or else he’d have no chance in the NJ-09 and have to run against Frelinghuysen in the Republican NJ-11.
South Jersey should see no change in the delegation, with the Democrat CD based in Camden growing outward but remaining Democrat and the three GOP districts not seeing big changes either.
I need to see electoral data, but my hunch is that both Holt’s NJ-12 and Pallone’s NJ-06 became a little less Democrat, and thus more competitive for a strong GOP challenger, while Lance’s NJ-07 was given some GOP precincts formerly in Garret’s abd Frelinghuysen’s CDs and should be more comfortably Republican.
Those are my preliminary thoughts, without having seen anything other than a not very detailed map. But I’d be surprised if
this map didn’t result in a 6-6 delegation (Dems have a 7-6 edge, and had an 8-5 advantage a year ago), and we might even see the first GOP majority in the NJ House delegation since January 1999 if my hunch about the NJ-12 and/or NJ-06 becoming more marginal is correct.
I just saw some (very rough) election numbers, and my hunches were correct except regarding (unfortunately) Holt’s NJ-12. Lance’s NJ-07 is now comfortably Republican , the three South Jersey GOP CDs stay about the same, and Pallone’s NJ-06 is more Republican (it was now carried easily by Christie in 2009 and the Bush 2004 percentage increased to about 45%). But Holt’s NJ-12 is more Democrat than before, and Holt should be safe there for the next decade.
As for Rothman, he represents around 52% of the new NJ-09 to 44% for Pascrell, so I expect Rothman to face Pascrell in a battle royale for the Dem nomination (which will be tantamount to election). Rothman represents only 20% of Garrett’s new NJ-05, and while the CD is not quite as Republican as before, there’s no way that Rothman could win there.
One article said the GOP drew the map especially to appeal to this tie breaker guy, law school dean John Farmer Jr. If so, I’m impressed.
So it sounds like the bottom line is
A)Our people should be good
B)Holt is safe, unfortunately
C)Pallone is the new Holt, probably just out of reach of our grasp but you never know.
The rats of course want Rothman to run against Garrett but I doubt he would especially since he currently has more voters in the 9th than Pascrell. I’m sure there are way more Italians than Jews though so Pascrell has the name game advantage. Is one of them worse or a more likely statewide candidate?
SCOTUS already set a date to hear the Texas appeal, and I think that, based on the 2006 precedent, they’ll overturn the district judge and let the legislative maps stand.
I hope so. The impact of that district judge could be enormous. Large enough to wipe out every gain made in every other state’s redistricting.
Rothman could be a potential statewide candidate for the Dems (perhaps to replace Lautenburg), but Pascrell is too old (he’ll be 76 in Jan 2013). Although Rothman is no spring chicken, either (60 next year).
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