Posted on 12/27/2011 12:52:08 PM PST by SeekAndFind
In a sign that he actually feels quite confident that he'll finish well in Iowa (remember, he still intends to win the state), former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum said he’ll drop out of the GOP presidential race if he finishes “dead last” in the Hawkeye State.
“If I finish dead last in the mix I’ll go home but I don’t think that’s going to happen,” he said Tuesday on the Des Moines radio station WHO.
The former senator has been focusing his resources in Iowa and won endorsements from a number of the state’s top conservatives, including its Secretary of State Matt Schultz (R) and Bob Vander Plaats, the head of the social conservative group The Family Leader.
Unfortunately for Santorum, not even those endorsements have upped his standing significantly in the polls. According to RealClearPolitics, he has averaged just 7.7 percent support in the state, ahead only of former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who has averaged about 4 percent but doesn’t plan to compete in the first-in-the-nation caucuses.
Perhaps even more significantly, he has tried but hasn’t been able to bag the endorsement of Iowa Rep. Steve King, who has said he wants a “full-spectrum conservative” as president. Santorum certainly fits that bill — but King has expressed doubt and reservation about whether Santorum (or Michele Bachmann, who King also considers adequately conservative) would be able to acquire enough support after Iowa to actually secure the nomination. Perhaps King’s endorsement is a tad overrated — this late in the game, it might not affect the race much — but his unwillingness to endorse even the candidates who most closely align with his views has nevertheless been a striking feature of the race in Iowa. Then again, King’s indecision might say less about Santorum’s ability to capture a larger share of support than he has in polls than it says about the indecision of Iowans, in general. Undecided voters could go to Santorum no less than to others.
For what it’s worth, The Washington Post’s lefty blogger Greg Sargent thinks Santorum has a slim chance not only to do well in Iowa — but to actually win the nomination:
[S]uppose that Santorum manages to rally to third place in Iowa, something that isn’t impossible to imagine. What then? It’s possible that conservatives who aren’t excited about Romney might look to him. And if he surged, then his main drawback – that there’s solid evidence that voters don’t like him very much – would suddenly look a lot less important.
Put it another way: We’ve seen what happens when the rest of the field surges (or, in some cases, simply shows up in the race). Large numbers of party actors have turned on Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich, and have opposed Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman. Their problems, whether policy (in the cases of Paul and Huntsman) or trust (Gingrich and Bachmann), cannot be resolved by popularity among the rank and file. But Santorum’s, to some extent, perhaps can.
So while I think the candidate most likely to benefit from an unexpected strong finish in Iowa remains Perry — the only candidate who actually showed some strength among party actors during his surge — I’m fairly convinced that Santorum is the next most likely to benefit if he should get the Iowa bump. Basically, if Romney has to match up against Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann or Huntsman one on one after the early states, I think Romney is as close to a lock as you can get in politics. Against Perry? I have no idea. I guess I’d say that Romney would be the favorite against Santorum, but I’m not at all sure that he’d be an overwhelming favorite. Or, to put it one more way: If there’s a 5 percent chance that someone other than Romney or Perry gets the nomination, I’m increasingly inclined to think that most of that 5 percent belongs to Santorum.
That doesn’t seem wholly implausible to me.
Santorum is just sucking the wind out of the room and is a distraction - like Paul and, sadly, Bachmann.
The race is between Romney and Gingrich at this point and possibly Perry.
I nevere thought I would say this, but maybe we need another Bush to beat Obama - Jeb Bush?
He probably won’t be dead last (assuming Huntsman and Johnson are options).
Stay outta the Bushes.
He should still drop out.
Before he goes home, will Little Ricky endorse Willard as he did in 2008?
Obviously the polling is fluid.
But the latest polls in Iowa suggest two tiers, with a jumbled second tier that could shift quickly:
First Tier
Paul 22.3%
Romney 21.0%
Second Tier
Gingrich 14.7%
Perry 12.0%
Bachmann 8.7%
Santorum 7.7%
Not much room between those four.
Wow. Certainly setting the bar high.
You forgot Huntsman, who is hard left of Romney. Why is that creepy man still talking?
Santorum: If I finish “dead last” in Iowa, I’ll drop out (”But I don’t think that’s gonna happen”)
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This is Iowa. A state that has gone Ape-Bleep for Ron Paul.
I would not make any decisions based on what these Paul-tards think.
My nickel is on Perry beating Newt for 3rd. From what I’ve seen, Newt just keeps on dropping. Maybe the ads a pro Newt group is running will help him stay third.
johnson?
There was no Johnson in the debates.
NO!
I don’t know what is going to happen in regards to Santorum, but If there is a horse race between Michele, Newt, Perry and Santorum, Romney will be the winner, and not just in Iowa. Santorum isn’t the only candidate who should consider dropping out.
I havn’t payed any attention to any polls. I do watch intrade now and then.
I live in iowa and I will make some guesses based purely on my gut and what I think iowa folks like. Keep in mind I’m cheering for santorum:
newt
paul
romney
santorum
in that order and it will be close...maybe close enough to be considered a 4 way tie. I still have my fingers crossed for a santorum surprise though.
After iowa, I think newt and paul will drop like boat anchors.
The polls are still completely fluid. At this point, let’s wait and see what happens when the votes are counted. I hope Santorum’s going to surprise a lot of people.
Gary Johnson. His most memorable line in the debates was when he joked about how his “next-door neighbor’s two dogs have created more shovel-ready jobs than this current administration.”
http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/
Don’t know if he’s officially dropped out yet or no.
Former NM Gov. Gary Johnson was in at least one of the debates, but hasn't been invited to most of them because he's below 1% in the polls. He seems to be a libertarian. Kind of a Ron Paul without the crazy.
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