Romney And Paul In Close Fight For Lead In Iowa, Santorum Surges To Third

The Business Insider ^ | December 28, 2011 | Zeke Miller

[Engraved-on-His-hands]

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Ron Paul are neck-and-neck for the lead in Iowa, less than a week before the first in the nation caucuses according to a new CNN/Time/ORC poll, while former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has risen to third place.

Romney has the support of 25 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers, followed by Paul with 22 percent, and Santorum at 16 percent (up from just 5 percent four weeks ago). Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who led Iowa polls just weeks ago, is down 33 points to just 14 percent, amid unrelenting criticism from the other candidates. The poll has a margin of error of ±4.5 percentage points.

The poll indicates that Hawkeye State conservatives have not coalesced behind a single candidate, though Santorum has the lead among self-identified evangelicals.

The second look Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Rep. Michele Bachmann have been holding out hope for doesn't appear to be coming, as the former front-runners are languishing at the back of the poll with 11 percent and 9 percent respectively. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is not contesting the caucuses, brings up the rear with 1 percent.

[Engraved-on-His-hands]

Go-o-o-o-o-o-o-o-o Rick!!!!!

[cardinal4]

yes, I’m thinking that Santorum is the best candidate now. Problem is he is surging the Iowa polls, so Rove et al, with have to torpedo him..

[Theodore R.]

It’s a no-brainer with this field: Rick Santorum’s The One! Less baggage.

[Theodore R.]

It’s a no-brainer with this field: Rick Santorum’s The One! Less baggage.

[Ingtar]

A larger problem is that Santorum was unable to get on several key ballots, Virginia being one of them. He might have trouble maintaining momentum if he does pull Iowa out. But of the three mentioned in this incarnation of Iowa polling, he is far and away the choice I would make.

[afraidfortherepublic]

Now THAT’s what I’ve been waiting for!

[CainConservative]

Four tickets out of IA? Santorum will split the conservative vote with Newt :(

[Gator113]

GO OBAMA GO............

[edge10]

I will gladly vote for Santorum.

[nathanbedford]

Some rambling thoughts:

As a supporter of Gingrich, I confess I am disappointed about situation in Iowa. It appears that Newt has run out of supporters before Romney ran out of money with which to run negative ads. The problem is that what has been done in Iowa to Gingrich might be replicated in South Carolina and Florida.

Let me be clear, this is the way the game has to be played now. The candidates must go through the fire and if Gingrich cannot withstand the media assault he should fall by the wayside. We cannot afford to send the candidate into the general election who cannot even withstand a media barrage when the field consists only or mostly of Republican voters. If Gingrich is vulnerable because of his baggage let him fade now.

We must be brutally Darwinian about selecting the man to beat Obama.

Of the three tests in selecting our candidate, electability, conservative bona fides, and vision, I put electability first on the list because, as John F. Kennedy said, "first you gotta get elected." We cannot risk the Republic on a second term. So electability is the most compelling consideration.

If Santorum is to move up the line to challenge Romney, let us see whether the theory holds that says that Gingrich has too much baggage and Santorum has no baggage. It is better to know what sort of attacks can he made against Santorum in the general. His support of Arlen Specter will hardly constitute a serious flaw in the general. Probably, he will be painted as some sort of a religious nut and a fanatic on abortion. Likely they will try to make them into a warmonger.

I have always thought of Santorum as a potential second-tier vice presidential candidate in the hope that he might deliver Pennsylvania. If Obama loses Pennsylvania he will almost certainly have lost the general election but it is not at all clear that Santorum can deliver Pennsylvania. Can he win it as the presidential nominee? The fact that he lost it as senator does not mean that he cannot win it as the presidential candidate.

I am of the mind that it is too soon to write Gingrich off. The acid test for him will come in South Carolina; if he can prevail there, he has a chance to go on. We will have to see the effects of the negative ads in South Carolina.

I think it would be better if Paul prevails over Romney in Iowa because it will vitiate the value of a win in Iowa for Romney and will do less harm to Gingrich. I discount Paul as a serious contender for the nomination but it is difficult to assess what sort of mischief he can do in the meantime and, worse, what sort of real mischief he can do if he runs third-party.

[Antoninus]

Santorum at 16% in Iowa.

Santorum for President ping. Let me know if you want on or off the list.

Top 10 Reasons why Conservatives should support Santorum

[MaryLou1]

GOOD NEWS! He is the best candidate IMNSHO-’bout time he got some recognition, his hard work in iowa paid off it seems (hopefully)

[Lazlo in PA]

It is better to know what sort of attacks can he made against Santorum in the general.

Look no further than the '06 PA Senate race. The Rats pulled out all the stops to defeat him and the only personal issue they could come up with was some phoney residency issue. It went nowhere. What contributed to his loss in that race that many outside PA don't see is that the Rats ran a clean slate, Pro Life so called Blue Dog candidate that had a popular father. It was a fraud and little Bobby is going to be thrown out this cycle for those lies he made in that election.

Because Rick is a clean God fearing man, the battle with Obummer will focus purely on issues, not personal BS, which will sink the Rats.

[nathanbedford]

I agree with both your description of the 2006 race and your description of Santorum's character. However, I fear that the absence of baggage will not prove much of an impediment for the combined Democrat and media smear machine.

All we have to do is wait for the "Macacca" moment and we will see that machine smearing away. Something will be trumped up.

For me, the question is not so much the absence of baggage but the capacity of the candidate to set the agenda and drive the election.

[BillyBoy]

>> though Santorum has the lead among self-identified evangelicals <<

Schadenfreude

But...but...but I've been kissin' their butts MORE! Everyone knows my 30 year track record demonstrating anything but "family values" in my personal life doesn't matter because I found Jesus NOW! How DARE anyone doubt my sincerity!! Also, you're just anti-Catholic if you don't vote for me. I'm the only Catholic running. Huh? Whatta mean this guy Santorum is a lifelong faithful Catholic!? D'oh!

[JediJones]

The big problem we have with Romney is that most of his baggage tends to come from the left, anti-corporation point-of-view. We saw Newt got slammed when he tried to bring it up. The problem is most of the primary voters will therefore remain ignorant about Romney’s baggage until it’s too late, and Obama pulls Kennedy’s 1994 ads out of the vault to sink Romney. Don’t people wonder why Romney lost to Kennedy to 17 points the same year Newt swept Congress and retook the House? The material they have against Romney from Bain Capital is dreadfully damning to anyone but Wall Street Journal-esque rock solid capitalist ideologues, and Romney has no accomplishments as governor or in politics to turn to once that kills him. I’m from Pennsylvania, and I know the easy painting of Romney as a corporate greedhead will make it UTTERLY IMPOSSIBLE for him to win Ohio and Pennsylvania. If you think Romney succeeded at Bain Capital by being some sort of populist philanthropist spreading riches among the people...you’re hopelessly naive.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/58952_Page3.html

Strategists in both parties say that a 1994-level assault is coming Romney’s way if he makes it to the general election, no matter what precautions he takes.

A company that laid off hundreds of employees. A federal “bailout” to rescue a failing bank. Mitt Romney, at the center of it all.

When Romney challenged Sen. Ted Kennedy in 1994, it was his connection to those two companies that played a significant role in sinking his campaign as Democrats tied him to plant closings and worker firings.

“This was a guy who stepped onto the stage, looked good, sounded good, but his big claim was, ‘I’m a job creator,’” Devine said of Romney’s first run. “We blew it up.”

The never-aired “bailout” ad, shared with POLITICO by one of Kennedy’s advisers, remains an unexploded grenade from that race, underscoring Romney’s vulnerability

the ad never ran because it turned out to be unnecessary: Kennedy had already broken Romney with a series of ads tying him to layoffs in Indiana.

Romney aides pushed back strongly on the Democratic charge that Bain & Co. received anything like a TARP-style “bailout.” While the FDIC is a government agency, it is funded by deposit insurance payments rather than taxes.

Romney’s opponents in both parties have already begun preparing files on his Bain years, raising the prospect that a drip-drip of opposition research could sap Romney over the course of a long campaign.

David Axelrod shot back on Twitter: “In business, Romney made a fortune firing American workers. As governor, 47th in job creation.”

The Ampad affair became the core of Kennedy’s 1994 ads against Romney. Kennedy’s team went out to Indiana and came back with footage of angry workers expressing frustration with Romney, with one saying on camera: “If he’s created jobs, I wish he could create some here, you know, instead of taking them away.”

“They were so powerful in their own words. The Romney campaign accused us of having scripted them, and we could truthfully say we hadn’t,” said Bob Shrum, Devine’s former business partner and another Kennedy adviser. “Romney running as the candidate who created jobs was over.”

Romney claimed credit for creating 10,000 jobs. Now, he’s far more cautious, speaking about his business record in general terms and acknowledging that it has its blemishes.

“Sometimes I was successful and helped create jobs, other times, I was not.”

“They’re trying to hit him on Bain, companies that Bain had under their umbrella, where people lost their jobs.”

even a handful of persuasive data points from his career at Bain and Bain Capital could be enough to tarnish Romney’s credibility on the economy. And the data is there

“Those things are already coming out. They’re already starting to pick away at his credentials, as an entrepreneur,” he continued. “If you don’t get out there and get on offense a little bit, you will be defined by the other side and things will slip away.”

Romney sat on the board of a medical supply company, Damon Corp., which later paid $119 million in penalties for billing unnecessary blood tests to Medicare during the period of Romney’s involvement.

“I think Romney and the people around him have learned the lesson of ’94, which is you don’t want to lead with your chin,” Devine said. “If you overstate your record on job creation, and you try to get everybody to believe that everything in business was great, you pay a price for that.”

[Joe 6-pack]

"Probably, he will be painted as some sort of a religious nut and a fanatic on abortion."

The pro-homo crowd loathes and despises Santorum far more than any other GOP candidate...doubt me? Just google "Santorum" with the safe search set to "off". They will not be able to help themselves if he wins the nomination, and their meltdown, drama queen hissy fits would most likely galvanize traditional Americans behind Santorum.

[Joe 6-pack]

LOL...about a month ago when the Newt was running around deriding the debate formats and talking about how he’d follow Obama around and challenge him to Lincoln-Douglas debates (with his ridiculous punchline about letting Obama use his teleprompter), Santorum said that it was a great idea and challenged the Newt to a Lincoln-Douglas debate. The Newt campaign went silent on the matter....

[American Constitutionalist]

After Iowa and NH, in order to drop out, Huntsman, then Bachman, then Perry.

[American Constitutionalist]

" I have always thought of Santorum as a potential second-tier vice presidential candidate in the hope that he might deliver Pennsylvania. If Obama loses Pennsylvania he will almost certainly have lost the general election but it is not at all clear that Santorum can deliver Pennsylvania. Can he win it as the presidential nominee? The fact that he lost it as senator does not mean that he cannot win it as the presidential candidate. "

2 years ago in the midterm election, Pa elected a Republican Governor, and State Senate went republican in 2010.
Newt is on his road of going down in the polls after people have already gotten a look at him.