Posted on 12/30/2011 9:04:13 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The extent to which Rick Santorum has gained in Iowa polling is not entirely clear. Although two polls have him with 16 percent of the vote, two others that were in the field at the same time have him at 10 and 11 percent, respectively.
Nevertheless, Mr. Santorum can make the most credible claim of any candidate about having momentum in the state. Our forecast model actually tries to quantify momentum by looking at the trajectory of each candidate’s polling and assigns him a small bonus or penalty based upon it. Right now, Mr. Santorum is benefiting from that adjustment, while other candidates like Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann are being harmed by it.
This is enough to move Mr. Santorum into third place in our projections. However, I worry that the model’s adjustment is nevertheless too conservative in this instance. Mr. Santorum has several additional factors that could help him in the closing days of the campaign. These factors will not show up in the topline numbers in the polling and therefore our model does not account for them, but this does not mean they are not important.
- First, Mr. Santorum does not just have momentum, but he has it at the right time — at a point in the campaign where conservative voters may be behaving tactically as they try to determine which candidates from among Mr. Santorum, Mrs. Bachmann, Mr. Gingrich and Rick Perry are most viable. Mrs. Bachmann in particular appears to be vulnerable because of a combination of soft polling and the defection of her Iowa campaign co-chairman, Kent Sorsenson.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
NOTE:
Nate Silver’s model currently gives Mr. Santorum a 7 percent chance of winning the caucuses, while the betting market Intrade gives him a 9 percent chance.
Oh well, I guess it's the only show in town.
How long?
Until the liberal media and other republicans start ganging up on him.
Before any Mitt bots smear Santorum, I’ll point out Mitt seems to be carefully imitating John Edwards’ hairdo.
Nobody likes John Edwards.
Too late for Santorum. Maybe if everyone got behind him 2 months ago, he could have made a push. But now its too late. He doesnt have the ground game across the country nor the money to compete.
It’s going to be Romney unless Gingrich somehow stops him. That’s just simply where the race is at.
One thing the Romney and Paul supporters have that no conservative in the race has....LOYALTY! Conservatives will lose this election because they spent all summer and fall jumping from one candidate to another in search of perfection. Perfection that was never found.
Have you ever heard the term “concern troll”?
Probably not, since you seem to have just signed up.
Nate Silver. Check. NYT. Check. Intent to split conservative vote to get Romney. Check.
I’ve been saying for about 2 weeks it will be Romney, Santorum, Paul and Gingrich.
do us all a favor on this Forum. Hold your breath until Newt drops out!
I’ve been saying for about 2 weeks it will be Romney, Santorum, Paul and Gingrich.
Bingo! Check. Using Santorum now to split us. Check! Gullible Santorum supporters popping up today. Check.
I hope you're right because Newt WINS SC & FL (and therefore the nomination) in that scenario.
Santorum is another Duncan Hunter, without the experience.
I disagree, that if Romney wins Iowa, that he will also lose SC and Florida. I see the very opposite happening.
Too late for Santorum. Maybe if everyone got behind him 2 months ago, he could have made a push. But now its too late. He doesnt have the ground game across the country nor the money to compete. It’s going to be Romney unless Gingrich somehow stops him. That’s just simply where the race is at. One thing the Romney and Paul supporters have that no conservative in the race has....LOYALTY! Conservatives will lose this election because they spent all summer and fall jumping from one candidate to another in search of perfection. Perfection that was never foundMight as well save your breath. Reality or facts will not sway the Santorum (or other second tier) faithful. They will glob onto Santorums projected Iowa performance as proof that Rick can win it - despite all "evidence" to the contrary.
OUTSTANDING.
BTW there’s another Duncan Hunter now.
Duncan D.
Never mind I found the amount, it was 42,000. http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gingrichs-sale-of-mailing-list-unlawful-watchdog-group-charges/2011/12/19/gIQArh3s4O_story.html
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