(1) Paul (2) Santorum (3) Gingrich (4) Romney

carrollspaper.com ^ | 12/30/2011 | DOUGLAS BURNS

[TBBT]

First things first: the candidate best positioned to win the Republican presidential caucuses next Tuesday in Carroll County is clearly Newt Gingrich. The former Speaker of the U.S. House has put the work in here with three visits to Santa Maria Winery involving generous allotments of time, unhurried posing for pictures with folks and intellectually engaging speeches.

Gingrich also fielded direct questions about his admitted marital infidelities and seemed to satisfy most conservatives I’ve talked with about his path to redemption and reconnection to faith.

Most of all, Republicans are spoiling for a fight with President Obama. They think Gingrich has the intellectual ballast, the boldness and the force of will to challenge the president.

“He (President Obama) is going to stick to his guns, what he believes in,” said Paul DeShaw, a Carroll Republican who has been involved with party politics here since the GOP held its meetings in a phone booth during the Democratic electoral stranglehold of much of the last 50 years. “He (Obama) wants there to be a dialogue on which direction this country could go in. Now that happens to be a direction different than I believe in — and I think the Republicans have to put forth an answer to that challenge. We have to have a definitive difference.”

DeShaw thinks Gingrich will win Carroll County. He’s right.

[TBBT]

Such an order would make a lot of pollsters unhappy.

[iowamark]

Should the Iowa Caucuses unfold this way the big story would be Romney’s lackluster finish. That would give former Utah Governor and one-time Obama ambassador to China Jon Huntsman a game-changing momentum in New Hampshire where he is running an aggressive campaign. Huntsman can do well in larger states further down the primary calendar.

Ironically, Huntsman, who, channeling Stephen Bloom, called us all a bunch of corn pickers incapable of seeing a president of the United States in a stamp collection the other day, may end up being the real winner of the Iowa Caucuses.

[Antoninus]

No kidding. Flip the top two, and the result would be positively shocking. And most excellent.

[mamelukesabre]

I’ve been telling freepers all along that mit will not win iowa...and that I really don’t think he will get the nomination. That’s why I am so disgusted with freepers running to newt as a last ditch effort to stop romney.

[goseminoles]

Who do we run to now that Cain is history??

[mamelukesabre]

Why do you have to run to anyone? Just pick a conservative and go with it. There are 3 conservatives left: perry, bachman, and santorum. None of them are rock solid but they are better than the others. I personally like santorum, but I could switch to perry if I have to. I live in iowa and I have to do the caucus in 4 days. In a caucus you have the option of switching your vote midway through based on what other people are doing.

[traderrob6]

Ironic it’s in Carroll county.

The old timers will tell you that in the day it was the gambling, bootlegging and prostitution capitol of the midwest.

[goseminoles]

You contradict yourself. In one sentence you say pick one. In the next you say you can go with another. Same as what everyone else is doing. Electability matters so we don’t waste votes on the like of Bauchman.

[jjotto]

In a caucus you have the option of switching your vote midway through based on what other people are doing.

Yep. The reality is that at a caucus you and your group have to be dedicated. An individual or group too small to have an impact has to compromise and join with some other group to select delegates to the next levels. This is why Romney, backed by party establishment-types, will get the upper hand regardless of the presidential preference vote. Too many individuals and small groups will just stay back and let the establishment run things.

[JediJones]

Newt has a 90% conservative lifetime voting record. If you’re going to say a former Democrat who worked on Al Gore’s campaign is a conservative, then Newt’s surely a conservative. Newt’s also the most conservative candidate who has a good chance of winning the general election.

Santorum is only doing well, I suspect, because of some high-profile endorsements in Iowa. He did not pick up any traction on his own merits for many months and he won’t in the general election. Bachmann’s negatives are the highest of all the candidates with both Republicans and Democrats. Perry has a chance, I’ll admit, but it’s risky considering his gaffes and how a Southern candidate will play outside the South. But given his history and what I’ve read about some of his actions as Texas governor, he is less conservative than Newt.

[mamelukesabre]

I am not doing what everyone else is doing because I don’t believe in polls whatsoever. I only care about what actually happens in a PRIMARY. Also, mit and newt are out no matter what for me.

[goseminoles]

Are you sure about that???

[Figment]

Even if this projection was true for the state it doesn’t mean squat overall. The winner of Iowa is like winning your first pre-season game in the NFL

[maxwellsmart_agent]

Is it possible that Rick Santorum could come out of Iowa as the Number 1 candidate? I am beginning to wonder. Iowa is conservative working people. Except for Bachmann, Santorum is the most conservative candidate. He might just surprise everybody.