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About That Santorum Surge
cjr.org ^ | 12/30/2011 | Erika Fry

Posted on 12/31/2011 8:32:12 AM PST by TBBT

CEDAR RAPIDS, IOWA — The media has been abuzz about Rick Santorum since Wednesday, when a CNN/Time/ORC International poll showed support among likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers for the long-lagging Santorum more than tripling since the start of December, and an NBC/Marist poll released Thursday showed similar numbers.

While these polls offered reporters a few interesting potential story lines—the Santorum surge (the CNN/Time poll put him at 16% support, or third place behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul), a plunge in support for Newt Gingrich (to 14%, down from 33% at the start of the month), and Romney leading with 25% to Paul’s 22% (margin of error 3%)—it was the Santorum news that, to paraphrase Politico Wednesday, “won the day.”

The spoils: Seemingly more press attention since Wednesday than Santorum has received almost the entire campaign season. Take NBC News alone: Santorum was on the Today show on Thursday morning; NBC News’ First Read email that day asked, “Why not Santorum?”; and Santorum was booked for Meet the Press Sunday.

The Wall Street Journal and New York Times, among others, have reported that Santorum has started seeing larger crowds at his campaign events this past week, “reflecting,” in the Times’s words, Santorum’s rise in the polls.

Here’s the Boston Globe’s look at what that looked like:

(Excerpt) Read more at cjr.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: dividedwefall; division; iowa; ricksantorum; santorum; santorumsurge
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Let’s cover it with some restraint and self-awareness

Sure. That works if your intent is solely to cover the news. It doesn't work if you're trying to push a candidate - especially if that candidate's success helps in your efforts to take out another.
1 posted on 12/31/2011 8:32:18 AM PST by TBBT
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To: TBBT

Regardless of how the middle candidates stack up in Iowa it comes down who can take the fight into SC and beyond. That takes money and campaign structure which I don’t think Santorum nor Bachmann have at this stage. I guess the good thing is that reality comes into play beginning next Tuesday and all this speculation beomes moot.


2 posted on 12/31/2011 8:37:09 AM PST by deport
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To: TBBT
Rick Santorum would be a wonderful conservative President and fight against the thieves and liars who occupy the DC bureaucracies who consistently lie to and deceive and steal and destroy Americans heritage and freedoms and pick pocket our hard earned dollars daily. May the good Lord help Americans understand the truth and elect a fine conservative like Rick Santorum so that God may bless our nation once again.
3 posted on 12/31/2011 8:41:55 AM PST by kindred (wages of sin is death; but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ ...)
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To: TBBT

The polls are suspect at best and are designed to capture the intent of the main stream establishment. Just a side note: we need to get back to one day for voting to reduce voter fraud.


4 posted on 12/31/2011 8:43:17 AM PST by Jukeman (God help us for we are deep in trouble.)
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To: kindred

Santorum is a big spending Bush republican, not acceptable.


5 posted on 12/31/2011 8:43:33 AM PST by jpsb
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To: deport

Santorum will not even be on the ballot in Virginia, Ohio, Tennessee, and at least a dozen other states. Barring a last-second, miraculous petition drive, he will miss no less than 20 primary ballots, many of which do not count write-ins.

He cannot win. It can’t be done. That’s not a knock, it’s a fact, He CANNOT get a majority of delegates and be the nominee. He “surged” too late, and his entire “surge” is confiscated to just the state of Ohio.

Two months ago, maybe there was time. But there’s not anymore; he cannot win the nomination.


6 posted on 12/31/2011 8:43:42 AM PST by TitansAFC (Mitt Romney gets less bang for the buck than John-Freaking-Huntsman.)
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To: kindred
Rick Santorum would be a wonderful conservative President and fight against the thieves and liars who occupy the DC bureaucracies who consistently lie to and deceive and steal and destroy Americans heritage and freedoms and pick pocket our hard earned dollars daily. May the good Lord help Americans understand the truth and elect a fine conservative like Rick Santorum so that God may bless our nation once again.
That's fine and all... Nobody would argue that Santorum wouldn't be a better president than Obama. Santorum would probably be a good one.

However, none of that matters if you can't win.

Santorum has no,support, money, or organization outside of Iowa and doesn't have enough time to build it in sufficient quantity to stop Romney.

Only Newt, and perhaps Perry, have enough of the above three factors in sufficient quantities to stop Romney. Perry is a longer shot. His poll numbers are in the basement down state.
7 posted on 12/31/2011 8:52:37 AM PST by TBBT
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To: TitansAFC
he will miss no less than 20 primary ballots

Makes one wonder why he is hanging on. Is he looking for a VP slot? Was it a slow autumn at the office?


8 posted on 12/31/2011 8:54:55 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: kindred

Rick Santorum endorsed Arlen Spectre, Democrat-turned Repub-turned Democrat.

No thank You.


9 posted on 12/31/2011 8:55:47 AM PST by marty60
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To: TitansAFC
So you say—what I know is that here on the ground in South Carolina Rick Santorum is catching fire and so far he has MY vote.

Conjecture meet reality.

10 posted on 12/31/2011 8:56:32 AM PST by Happy Rain ('The GOP establishment thinks a conservative can't win--Liberal Democrats KNOW conservatives win.)
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To: Happy Rain
Conjecture meet reality.

Missing the ballot in 20 some primary states isn't mere 'conjecture'—it's a hard reality that Santorum absolutely cannot win even under the best of conditions. It's an outrage that he's wasting our time.
11 posted on 12/31/2011 9:00:34 AM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: jpsb
“Santorum is a big spending Bush republican, not acceptable.”

Would you prefer Willard? To paraphrase Rick Pitino, Ronald Reagan ain't walking through that door.

12 posted on 12/31/2011 9:01:01 AM PST by HenpeckedCon (What pi$$es me off the most is that POS commie will get a State Funeral!)
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To: TBBT

Per some news reports, watch out for falling Newt numbers.

Apparently, he is tanking. He is now in 5th place.

What a difference a day or two makes.

If Perry can even make a showing leading up to the primaries in the South, he could turn out to be the surprise candidate. Wins in southern states might give him momentum to derail Romney.

Otherwise, I think the GOP will be nominating Romney, and I doubt Romney can win after 10 months of MSM/Dem rehabilitation and resurrecting The One and his Second Coming.


13 posted on 12/31/2011 9:02:16 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: TitansAFC
Santorum will not even be on the ballot in Virginia, Ohio, Tennessee, and at least a dozen other states.

Care to back this up with actual facts?

You claimed Santorum would not be on the ballot in Florida and I looked it up and found you were lying.

Santorum WILL be on the ballot in Tennessee so you are lying again.

ALL the candidates aside from Romney and Paul are absent from the Virginia ballot.

Is any of your tripe based on reality?

He “surged” too late, and his entire “surge” is confiscated to just the state of Ohio.

Confiscated?? Do you know what that means? Do you know the difference between Ohio and Iowa?

14 posted on 12/31/2011 9:02:34 AM PST by Crichton
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To: TitansAFC
Santorum will not even be on the ballot in Virginia, Ohio, Tennessee, and at least a dozen other states.

As I mentioned on another thread, Santorum already is on the ballot in Tennessee. (He doesn't have any delegates listed on the ballot, but they can be assigned later.) Ohio's "deadline" is only a suggested deadline, not a firm one.

Santorum will be on a lot more ballots than you think.
15 posted on 12/31/2011 9:04:11 AM PST by Engraved-on-His-hands
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To: TitansAFC
Santorum will not even be on the ballot in Virginia, Ohio, Tennessee, and at least a dozen other states. Barring a last-second, miraculous petition drive, he will miss no less than 20 primary ballots, many of which do not count write-ins.

He cannot win. It can’t be done. That’s not a knock, it’s a fact, He CANNOT get a majority of delegates and be the nominee. He “surged” too late, and his entire “surge” is confiscated to just the state of Ohio.

Two months ago, maybe there was time. But there’s not anymore; he cannot win the nomination.
Too bad the folks in Iowa can't see it as clearly. But, when people have to look the stump speeches and campaign ads for guidance in who to vote for, it says it all - sadly.
16 posted on 12/31/2011 9:04:45 AM PST by TBBT
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To: TitansAFC
Santorum will not even be on the ballot in Virginia, Ohio, Tennessee,

The filing deadline for Ohio is March 14th, so no one has missed that deadline. The Ohio SOS suggested presidential candidates file in December but only as a precaution.

17 posted on 12/31/2011 9:05:26 AM PST by Crichton
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To: Crichton

Santuckabee is just pimping for a VP spot at this point. If that doesn’t happen, he at least gets a chance to become a paid news contributor, or maybe have a book deal or two.


18 posted on 12/31/2011 9:06:09 AM PST by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State | Gingrich 2012)
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To: marty60

Since you are not going to get a perfect candidate it’s silly to demand one.


19 posted on 12/31/2011 9:06:13 AM PST by Tribune7 (Vote Perry or Gingrich, maybe. OK Santorum too)
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To: TitansAFC

You really need to present hard facts that Santorum won’t be on these ballots. Lying doesn’t help make your case.


20 posted on 12/31/2011 9:06:54 AM PST by Antoninus (Defeat Romney--Defeat Obama.)
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