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2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread
Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: 2012; bigideas; campaign2012; caucus; foxnewsisbiased; foxnewspimpsmitt; frankly; getitdone; gop; gosantorum; ia2012; iowa; iowacaucus; iowaisirrelevant; iowamattersnot; liveiowacaucus; muchadoaboutiowa; muchadoaboutnothing; newt; newtlautenberg; nominee; openprimary; perry; president; ricksantorum; santorum; santorum2012; solutions
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To: bigbob

Even so, being able to claim a win over Romney, however narrow, would truly make this a David vs Goliath moment.


1,521 posted on 01/03/2012 9:20:56 PM PST by Cato in PA (Hope and pray for the Santorum surge!)
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To: onyx

Hey Onyx, I hope Rick will pray on it. He’s a good man- never said one word against him. I will pray on it, as well.

(Oh course, I won’t tell you the content of my prayer) -:)


1,522 posted on 01/03/2012 9:21:09 PM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: Theodore R.

Too close to tell at this point.


1,523 posted on 01/03/2012 9:21:18 PM PST by BenKenobi
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To: Slings and Arrows

Agreed.


1,524 posted on 01/03/2012 9:21:18 PM PST by nicmarlo
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To: DCBryan1

I can get that info tommorrow> I want the current ZOT total. I have 3 IBTZs.....maybe a record since the Guliani purge era ;)

- - - - - -
I asked the same thing. 3 for this thread? I know we had a total of 11 or 12 the other day but that was across threads.


1,525 posted on 01/03/2012 9:21:25 PM PST by reaganaut (If Romney is a conservative then I'm the frickin Angel Moroni.)
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To: Theodore R.
There's only one winner tonight and his name is Rick Santorum. Romney stuck in the mud, can't break 30. Newt down at 13. Perry and Bachman out and the nut has his last hurrah.

Winner is Santorum by any measure EXCEPT perhaps a few votes.

1,526 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:13 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: onyx

“Governor Perry is going back to Texas to consider his next steps... to see if he thinks there’s a pathway forward.”

Yes, I heard him. Knowing him, I think he will drop out. Earlier, before the numbers came out, he said he was going to S. Carolina. Now, he isn’t.


1,527 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:19 PM PST by Marcella (Newt will smash Hussein in debates. Newt needs money.)
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To: bigbob

Nope, the delegate count will matter.

Romney and Santorum will split about 8 delegates a piece, Paul will get about 6, and Gingirch will probably get the other 3.


1,528 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:29 PM PST by parksstp (Articulate Conservatives look for Converts. RINO's look for Democrat Heretics.)
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To: bigbob

11:58 p.m. ET

Perry is addressing supporters in West Des Moines, and is reading a letter from a man who backed him. It looks like one of his daughters is beating back tears, and she got a hug from her brother, Griffin.

“This wasn’t my purpose in life but our country is in trouble. It was my duty to serve my country one more time,” Perry says.

Perry drops a bombshell: “With the voters decision, I decided to return to Texas and determine if there is a path forward,” he says.

“With a little reflection...I am going to decide the best path forward. There is a model to take this country forward and it is in the great state of Texas.”


1,529 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:42 PM PST by sockmonkey (He's not perfect, but Perry is no wussy boy)
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To: CedarDave

Gawd, you were reading my mind, I just didn’t want to say it!! Someone awesome like Rick with such grace reads the numbers and graciously reconsiders, while Bachmann reminds me of Palin and grinds her reputation into the ground, and my last nerve into the stratisphere! This development actually, weirdly, makes me hopping mad and even more furious with Michelle Thatcher! LOL! Now see what you did!
I popped my cork. :)


1,530 posted on 01/03/2012 9:22:59 PM PST by RitaOK (The higher you poll in Iowa, the more embarrassing it is for you.)
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To: gswilder

Ok, “alleged shilling”


1,531 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:22 PM PST by free me (heartless)
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To: RobinOfKingston

It does not matter.
He was born in the United States.
End of story.


1,532 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:38 PM PST by Kansas58
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To: Grunthor
"“Perry is not going to drop out”

Why? "

Because he's a TEXAN!

1,533 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:45 PM PST by matthew fuller ("If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." Winston Churchill)
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To: gswilder

I liked Perry too.:(


1,534 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:57 PM PST by fatima (Free Hugs Today :))
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To: jwalsh07
Doesn’t matter who gets the most votes, the winner tonight is Santorum.

Exactly. I keep hearing the Rocky music when reading these threads tonight. The underdog goes the distance. Gotta love it.
1,535 posted on 01/03/2012 9:23:59 PM PST by Antoninus (Defeat Romney--Defeat Obama.)
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To: bray
The establishmedia hate machine will be going full blast after an unashamed Christian Conservative.

Woe to them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! (Isaiah 5:20)

1,536 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:16 PM PST by MissMagnolia (ObamaCare side effects: headache,delayed treatment, 0 choice,sky-rocketing taxes & premature death)
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To: Suz in AZ
"With the way things are, I don’t think he has to be exciting. He just has to be believable."

Interesting perspective. In 2008 voters went for charisma, but after the last few years, a sincere guy with family values may be a great relief.

1,537 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:25 PM PST by Think free or die
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To: ez

? Romney won in Pottawatamie (Council Bluffs, big money RINOs) and Plymouth County (Le Mars, but this county doesn’t matter.

You might include Dickinson (Lake Okoboji, big money RINOs) and Fremont County (which doesn’t matter).

Almost all of western Iowa went Santorum. The Romney counts there are done.

Romney votes are being ‘found’ in Story (Ames) and Dubuque counties.


1,538 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:33 PM PST by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: VinL

Well, I am personally sorry to see him drop out, (if that’s his ultimate decision) because if not Newt Gingrich, then my support was going to go to Governor Perry for the win.

I knew I would have to hold my breath and pray throughout the debates, but his positions and policies were spot on like Newt’s and I loved his part time congress!


1,539 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:33 PM PST by onyx (PLEASE SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC:DONATE MONTHLY! Sarah's New Ping List - tell me if you want on it.)
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To: bray

You are right.... Persecution is no stranger to those who listen to their hearts and conscience more than the liberal media!!


1,540 posted on 01/03/2012 9:24:36 PM PST by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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