Posted on 01/03/2012 8:08:24 AM PST by Free Vulcan
Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.
Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.
We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.
My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:
Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1
Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.
Paul starting to fall off the pace.
I think you’re 100% right!
Btw, here’s the county count so far...
Santorum winning in 32 counties
Newt winning 0
Paul winning 16
Willard winning 16
Perry winning 0
Michele winning 0
There would be less of a dead heat is Bachmann and perhaps another conservative dropped out instead of splitting the conservative support and giving Romney the win among moderates and establishment GOPers.
At this point, we're hurting ourselves and helping Romney by splitting up our votes among a group.
Honestly dude, your "Perry will drop out on Wednesday" is getting old. How about this...if Perry doesn't drop out tomorrow you donate $1,000.00 to FR. Are you that confident? I expect a speedy reply.
Santorum leads!!
Perry never had his heart in the race to begin with as his “interviews” for the job attested to early on. he wasn’t prepared and he isn’t now either.... He loves being Gov. of Texas and he’ll be delighted to get back to it very soon...that’s where his heart is.
Santorum has a record of going along to get along with the ESTABLISHMENT. Perry and Newt do not. OBAMA would love to blow Santorum’s nose for him, since nothing Rick has ever done posed a challenge to anyone among the liberal/Establishment senate.
I keep saying if Newt will just stand up on his hind legs and roar he can take down the Establishment to whom he owes nothing. Rick Santorum is an entirely different story, one of cooperation and ingratiation. Nice guy, but ‘nuf said.
Perry owes the Establishment nothing either. It’s just that it feels so fabulous when Newt does the talking, and I don’t have to hold my breath when Newt opens his mouth to speak, but for wanting to lean forward and just enjoy it.
PLEASE please please beat Willard for me.
Signed, Newt :)
QFT
[The number of independents and moderates who would find Romney more appealing than Obama is a lot smaller than the number of conservatives - fiscal and conservative - who will simply sit on the sidelines because they cannot stomache Romney.]
That’s my guess. It only takes 5% of conservative having queasy stomachs to make this a squeaker. So even if the Repu elite push Romney over the finishing line, there will be hell to pay from people like me, who will be attacking president Romney from the base on Romneycare, and yes on whacky Mormonism.
Imagine a conservative president with zero honeymoon from his own base. What the hell is going through the minds of the elites? I’ll have 5,000 Twitter followers by the election all riled up against a Romney presidency, and there will be many more than me saying the same thing cause I already hear them.
The establishment needs to be very careful about getting what they wish for. They may need magic underwear to keep the GOP from breaking up if the push Romney over the line. Especially if Romney loses the General! Whoo boy, hell to pay then - they’ll be blamed for Dole-McCain-Romney. DoMcRo.
SARAH PALIN IS ON FAUX NOW TALKING GOOD about NEWT GINGRICH!
It is also a violation. NO ONE in uniform/serving in the military is t6o make public political statements (At least that is the way it was for the 30 years I was in!)
caww, we have ONE candidate running that can set this country back on the right path and that man is Newt Gingrich without a shadow of a doubt. Santorum did vote to raise the debt ceiling EIGHT times; he voted for the bridge to nowhere in Alaska and the Teapot Dome...endorsed ROMNEY for president in the last election, endorsed Spector. He is NOT the man to lead this nation. RomObama is not a conservative and I doubt Perry can catch up. If we lose the opportunity to elect Newt...America is going on a downhill slide and going fast. I believe that with all my heart. GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NEWT
Excellent! First lead he’s had all night. Up 107 votes.
Bttt
If there had been no Bachmann, Santorum would have a little cushion tonight. Conservatives won’t “grow up”, as Goldwater told them in 1960.
Say, did anyone else notice that Buddy Roemer got fewer votes than Herman Cain? You know your campaign is going badly when you can’t even beat someone who dropped out.
I’m convinced the RINOs keep Paul in to take votes away from those who would otherwise vote for a more conservative candidate specific to smaller govt. I think he’s a quack myself due to his foreign policydefense stance.
“a good day for America. That’s enough to give me hope.”
YES, and I now have tons of hope. I think God is answering our prayers, but we may have to pray harder. It won’t be easy, and we have a long road ahead of us.
btw, it’s not sir, it’s ma’am, but you don’t have to call me ma’am. :)
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