Rasmussen in FL: Romney 41, Gingrich 19, Santorum 15

Hot Air ^ | JANUARY 12, 2012 | ED MORRISSEY

[Qbert]

While South Carolina looks like a toss-up, according to the latest Insider Advantage poll, Florida looks like it could become a rout.  The latest Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney with a bigger lead than he had in New Hampshire, beating Newt Gingrich by 22 points in a state that could spell the effective end of the primary:

Mitt Romney is now running away with the race in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ survey of the end-of-the-month Florida Republican Primary.

Coming off his decisive win in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively. The two men finished second and third in New Hampshire where independents are allowed to vote in the primary. The Florida primary is open to Republican voters only. Texas Governor Rick Perry runs dead last among primary voters in the Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

A loss in South Carolina might soften up that lead a bit for Romney, but that would have to be a very large tumble to lose the state.  His opponents would have to win back huge chunks of demographics, including an 18-point lead among men and a 28-point lead among women, where Gingrich and Santorum tie at 16% to Romney’s near-majority 44%.  Romney even gets the edge among very conservative voters, 29/26 over Santorum with Gingrich at 25%, but wins a majority of “somewhat conservative” voters at 53%, with Gingrich in second at 16%.

Nor is Gingrich likely to make a charge in Florida, according to favorability numbers in this poll os 750 likely GOP primary voters.  He has a respectable 59/37 rating, but Romney’s is 76/21, with his 32% “very favorable” eleven points better than Gingrich’s.  Perry has cratered in Florida, with a 43/52 favorability rating, which still beats both Paul (33/64) and Huntsman (34/51).  Only Santorum challenges Romney in this measure with a 61/29 rating, but only 8% see him as the strongest candidate to challenge Obama, while a majority of 55% say that about Romney. Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination, and 87% believe that the likely Republican nominee is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama in November.

Assuming Romney wins in South Carolina, a win in Florida is almost assured.  With numbers like this, don’t be surprised to see more GOP figures lining up behind Romney in an attempt to unify the party early and aim its rhetorical guns at Team Obama.  That might be why John Bolton endorsed Romney late yesterday:

John Bolton, George W. Bush’s controversial Ambassador to the United Nations, will endorse Mitt Romney tonight, a Romney supporter told BuzzFeed.

Bolton tweeted earlier this evening that he plans to make a major announcement on Fox News’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”

And while Jim DeMint has been careful to remain neutral, his advisors are climbing aboard Team Mitt, too:

A group of loyalists to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint – including a top fundraiser for Rick Perry – will publicly endorse Mitt Romney’s presidential bid on Thursday, a source confirmed to CNN.

Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Barry Wynn, Columbia businessman and fundraiser Peter Brown, and Columbia attorney Kevin Hall will announce their support for Romney Thursday.

Wynn’s move to Romney is striking. The Spartanburg financial adviser is a member of Perry’s finance team and traveled to Texas in August to meet privately with the governor before he announced his bid.

Jeb Bush will probably wait for South Carolina to vote, but I’d bet that he will endorse Romney shortly afterward.

[ScottinVA]

Really, GOP??? Romney`s the guy, huh?? So much for Reagan`s admonishment about bold colors. Instead, bland pastels and gray... and oh, yeah.. defeat.. are apparently “in.”

[Catsrus]

You aren’t the only one. I thought I could support whoever the GOP nominee is, but, not sure I will vote if it’s Romney. I don’t like the guy or his policies. I know I’ve been an advocate of not allowing Obama to get re-elected, but, this just makes me sick that this country is so danged stupid after what happened with McCain.

[cdnerds]

Actually your very wrong about Rush. He beats the sh*t out of Romney everyday. He did say he had a good speech but so what? Thats endorsing him? Like most sane people, Rush sees the writing on the wall. Romney is going to be the nominee unless there is some act of God. All the other candidates have too much baggage, unelectable, and or no organization. I wanted Perry to win, thats not going to happen.

I will easily vote for Romney over Obama. Id rather get 70% of what i want, then none at all. People with this all or nothing mentality will do nothing more then elect a very dangerous socialist to another 4 years.

[SoDak]

Gosh, that’s about the finest analysis of this election I’ve read yet. And I agree completely.

[Terry Mross]

Thanks for the support. It bothers me to see a conservative being lead around by the ring in his nose as much as seing a liberal being lead around by the ring in his. There are two parties. The dem sheeple. And the repub sheeple. And the sheeple have two SENIOR leaders. Nancy and Boner.

And the repub JUNIOR leaders are Palin, Cantor, Bachman, Haley, Limbaugh, Hanity, Bolton, Greta ... all in the same GOP that Boner and McConnell are in.

Until the working man on each side of the line wakes up and realizes the man working across from him is not his enemy, our situation will never change. But that class warfare being stirred up by the democrats and IGNORED, therefore promoted by the republicans, keeps the working man fighting agains each other and keeps them re-electing the same old people who are out to feather their own nests at our expense.

It’s time the workers unite......AND GO HOME! Let the dear leaders come to the people and beg them to go back to work so they can collect taxes to pay for their lifestyle. Might just have a little bargaining power.

Rant now over.

[Terry Mross]

I simply do not accept what someone tells me to be fact. The poll I trust will be a poll of a few people in my coffee shop that I can hear answer the question. However, that does not tell me they won’t change their mind. Nor does it tell me their votes will definitely be counted as the voters wanted them counted.

Bottom line....you’re relying on a lot of faith that any of this crap is real and we’re not all being played like a fine violin at a Georgetown dinner party with Nancy and John sitting next to each other sharing a glass of champagne purchased by the taxpayer.

[Rome2000]

Looks like THE DEGENERATE CON MAN MYTH SLIP WILLARD RINO ROMNEY IS GOING TO GET HIS CLOCK CLEANED IN SC

DROPPING LIKE A STONE, AND AS OF YESTERDAY IS ONLY 2% OVER NEWTON LEROY (Insider Advantage 1/11-726 Likely Voters)

FUMR

What happens if I do not meet the mandate?

If you don’t have health insurance by Dec. 31, 2007, you will lose your personal income tax exemption for 2007. That exemption gives you a Massachusetts tax savings of approximately $219.

In 2008, the cost of the penalty goes up. The fine will equal half of the cost of the lowest-priced Health Connector-certified plan for each month that you don’t have coverage

Waivers will be available for those who cannot afford a plan that meets the rules. Check back for updates.

How is the mandate enforced?

The Massachusetts Department of Revenue will enforce the individual mandate through the tax process

News & Election Videos

Share

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

2008 South Carolina Primary on January 12, 2008 | 2008 GOP South Carolina Final RCP Average

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Romney	Gingrich	Santorum	Paul	Perry	Huntsman	Spread
RCP Average	1/4 - 1/11	--	29.3	20.0	19.0	11.3	5.0	3.5	Romney +9.3
Insider Advantage	1/11 - 1/11	726 LV	23	21	14	13	5	7	Romney +2
PPP (D)	1/5 - 1/7	1112 LV	30	23	19	9	5	4	Romney +7
Rasmussen Reports	1/5 - 1/5	750 LV	27	18	24	11	5	2	Romney +3
CNN/Time	1/4 - 1/5	485 LV	37	18	19	12	5	1	Romney +18

See All South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data

RCP Poll Average South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

29.3	Romney +9.3	20.0	Gingrich	19.0	Santorum	11.3	Paul
5.0	Perry	3.5	Huntsman	--	Bachmann	--	Cain

|

27.8

Huckabee +5.3

22.5

McCain

16.5

Romney

9.3

Thompson

7.0

Giuliani

5.0

Paul

26.9

McCain +1.0

25.9

Huckabee

14.7

Romney

14.6

Thompson

4.4

Paul

3.4

Giuliani

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Romney	Gingrich	Santorum	Paul	Perry	Huntsman	Spread
RCP Average	1/4 - 1/11	--	29.3	20.0	19.0	11.3	5.0	3.5	Romney +9.3
Insider Advantage	1/11 - 1/11	726 LV	23	21	14	13	5	7	Romney +2
PPP (D)	1/5 - 1/7	1112 LV	30	23	19	9	5	4	Romney +7
Rasmussen Reports	1/5 - 1/5	750 LV	27	18	24	11	5	2	Romney +3
CNN/Time	1/4 - 1/5	485 LV	37	18	19	12	5	1	Romney +18
Insider Advantage	12/18 - 12/18	736 LV	19	31	4	7	5	4	Gingrich +12
Clemson	12/6 - 12/19	600 LV	21	38	2	10	5	3	Gingrich +17
NBC News/Marist	12/4 - 12/6	635 LV	23	42	2	9	7	3	Gingrich +19
CNN/Time	11/29 - 12/6	510 LV	20	43	4	6	8	1	Gingrich +23
Winthrop	11/27 - 12/4	LV	22	38	3	4	9	1	Gingrich +16
Insider Advantage	11/28 - 11/28	519 LV	15	38	2	7	4	--	Gingrich +23
The Polling Company (R)	11/18 - 11/21	505 LV	16	31	1	5	6	3	Gingrich +15
Insider Advantage	11/8 - 11/8	457 LV	16	19	2	3	6	--	Gingrich +3
Clemson	10/27 - 11/7	600 LV	22	10	1	4	9	1	Romney +12
Rasmussen Reports	11/1 - 11/1	770 LV	23	15	1	5	9	1	Romney +8
CNN/Time	10/20 - 10/25	400 RV	25	8	1	12	11	1	Romney +13
Insider Advantage	10/16 - 10/16	476 LV	16	8	--	7	12	1	Romney +4
NBC News/Marist	10/11 - 10/13	639 LV	28	7	2	5	10	1	Romney +18
Winthrop	9/11 - 9/18	LV	27	5	2	4	31	2	Perry +4
PPP (D)	8/25 - 8/28	750 RV	13	7	4	5	36	2	Perry +23
Magellan Strategies (R)	8/22 - 8/23	637 LV	20	5	2	4	31	2	Perry +11
PPP (D)	6/2 - 6/5	1000 RV	27	12	--	7	--	2	Romney +15
Winthrop	4/17 - 4/23	LV	17	8	2	2	--	0	Romney +9
PPP (D)	1/28 - 1/30	559 RV	20	13	--	7	--	--	Romney +7
PPP (D)	5/22 - 5/23	638 LV	24	25	--	7	--	--	Gingrich +1

About Us | Contact | Advertise | Privacy Policy         © RealClearPolitics 2012

[RetSignman]

[He did say he had a good speech but so what?]

As an icon of Conservatism, why did Rush have to gush so much about a moderate?

He, of all people, knows Romney carries a ton ammunition for obama to use and yet he is almost manic about Gingrich and Perry out to destroy capitalism.

Neither one is out to do that and he knows it. In the past, he blasted McCain on a daily basis and for good reason...he was a moderate.

Now we have two PROVEN Conservatives running for office and he is screaming that they are going to destroy capitalism.

He has a huge audience and has great influence on how they think but if he doesn’t point out the dangers of selecting a moderate as our nominee he is forcing Conservatives to settle, just like we had to do with McCain.

[Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!]

On one of the news shows last night I saw one poll with Gingrich in 2nd and one poll with Santorum in 2nd in SC.

[qam1]

“Rasmussen is under the control of Karl Rove’s Secret Mind Control Rays” response in 3....2....1....

Well this poll oversampled Black Jewish Lesbians over the weekend so of course this poll is a lie.

[kindred]

That means two of the three [Santorum, Gingrich, Perry] must drop out soon and throw their support to the remaining one.
Agreed. It would be best of 2 stepped down but thier egos may be hurt. Perhaps casting lots may be an answer.

[southphilly]

Yep...voted by mail last week...

[RipSawyer]

Labels like conservative or liberal don’t tell us much at all but anyone who advocates a return to the real constitution would be scorned at the average Republican gathering, even in supposedly “ultra-conservative” South Carolina.

[riri]

My suggestion at this point --make sure your family passports are all up to date.

[RipSawyer]

“.we thought we had one but she slept through it”
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I suspect that at the end Sarah Palin realized what a lot of American conservative men don’t realize and that is that NO woman is going to be president anytime soon. The reason is that women are the majority of voters and women DO NOT want to see a woman in the white house. If women wanted a woman president we would be disgusted now with president Clinton rather than resident Obama. I have been very amused at all the speculation about Hillary replacing Obama and winning the white house. I figure she would have about as much chance in the general election as Joy Behar would have.
Women are the majority of voters, women decide who is president, either by voting or staying home, either way they are the majority and they decide. Women do not support women for president. They support men who look the part (at least to a woman’s eyes) and promise to solve all their problems.

[RipSawyer]

I am well aware of the enormous numbers of people who don’t agree with me. That is what scares the daylights out of me. All those people who don’t agree with me have been steadily wrecking the country for decades. They elected Johnson, Carter, Clinton and Obama. They imagined that Obama and his democrats would fix the problems created by George Bush. That seems rather like expecting a pack of rabid pit bulls to save you from a Chihuahua.

[SteveAustin]

I agree with your post about women voters and think there is substance behind it.

Despite what some on this site think, there is no special conspiracy to elect Mitt Romney. The bottom line is that Mitt is likely the most electable against Obama and most all the reputable polls show that.

Now, one of the reasons he is, goes to women voters. With the disintegration of the family unit, we now have many, many more single parent households run by women than there were 40 years ago.

Many of those women rely on benefits of the ever growing welfare state, or if they don’t, they like the idea of that safety net being there if they need it.

That group is not going to vote for a heavy duty conservative in a general election. They just aren’t.

All the polling shows that GOP candidates are going to win white men overwhelmingly. The election is going to be fought in the middle, and women voters will be a huge part of it.

When we talked about Reagan Democrats back in the 80’s, that basically included a lot of the world war two generation and their spouses. The Reagan democrats are now essentially deceased. And there aren’t many female equivalents to them in the current day.

Freepers can jump up and down about how they want a really super conservative candidate. That person is going to have a hard time winning a general election based on the current makeup of the country. This isn’t 1984 anymore unfortunately. I wish it were.

[D-fendr]

After SC two of the “Not Romney” candidates will need to get out if there is to be any chance of stopping Romney from locking this up.

Yes, that's the key. I wish they'd do it sooner, but FLA is the last chance. And, it has to be the candidates that do it - and support the remaining not-Romney. It's the only way.

RuPaul looks to be the spoiler, but I don't see anything that can be done there - he, and his supporters, could care less.