Posted on 01/12/2012 8:29:04 AM PST by Qbert
While South Carolina looks like a toss-up, according to the latest Insider Advantage poll, Florida looks like it could become a rout. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney with a bigger lead than he had in New Hampshire, beating Newt Gingrich by 22 points in a state that could spell the effective end of the primary:
Mitt Romney is now running away with the race in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ survey of the end-of-the-month Florida Republican Primary.
Coming off his decisive win in Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, Romney earns 41% support with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second at 19%. A new telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters finds former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum running third with 15% of the vote.Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor Jon Hunstman are next with nine percent (9%) and five percent (5%) support respectively. The two men finished second and third in New Hampshire where independents are allowed to vote in the primary. The Florida primary is open to Republican voters only. Texas Governor Rick Perry runs dead last among primary voters in the Sunshine State with two percent (2%) support. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
A loss in South Carolina might soften up that lead a bit for Romney, but that would have to be a very large tumble to lose the state. His opponents would have to win back huge chunks of demographics, including an 18-point lead among men and a 28-point lead among women, where Gingrich and Santorum tie at 16% to Romney’s near-majority 44%. Romney even gets the edge among very conservative voters, 29/26 over Santorum with Gingrich at 25%, but wins a majority of “somewhat conservative” voters at 53%, with Gingrich in second at 16%.
Nor is Gingrich likely to make a charge in Florida, according to favorability numbers in this poll os 750 likely GOP primary voters. He has a respectable 59/37 rating, but Romney’s is 76/21, with his 32% “very favorable” eleven points better than Gingrich’s. Perry has cratered in Florida, with a 43/52 favorability rating, which still beats both Paul (33/64) and Huntsman (34/51). Only Santorum challenges Romney in this measure with a 61/29 rating, but only 8% see him as the strongest candidate to challenge Obama, while a majority of 55% say that about Romney. Almost eight in ten expect Romney to win the nomination, and 87% believe that the likely Republican nominee is at least somewhat likely to beat Obama in November.
Assuming Romney wins in South Carolina, a win in Florida is almost assured. With numbers like this, don’t be surprised to see more GOP figures lining up behind Romney in an attempt to unify the party early and aim its rhetorical guns at Team Obama. That might be why John Bolton endorsed Romney late yesterday:
John Bolton, George W. Bush’s controversial Ambassador to the United Nations, will endorse Mitt Romney tonight, a Romney supporter told BuzzFeed.Bolton tweeted earlier this evening that he plans to make a major announcement on Fox News’s “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”
And while Jim DeMint has been careful to remain neutral, his advisors are climbing aboard Team Mitt, too:
A group of loyalists to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint – including a top fundraiser for Rick Perry – will publicly endorse Mitt Romney’s presidential bid on Thursday, a source confirmed to CNN.Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Barry Wynn, Columbia businessman and fundraiser Peter Brown, and Columbia attorney Kevin Hall will announce their support for Romney Thursday.
Wynn’s move to Romney is striking. The Spartanburg financial adviser is a member of Perry’s finance team and traveled to Texas in August to meet privately with the governor before he announced his bid.
Jeb Bush will probably wait for South Carolina to vote, but I’d bet that he will endorse Romney shortly afterward.
I know quite a few that agree...
If Santorum endorses Gingrich now, it probably would give Gingrich a small bump in SC, but not enough of a win to counter the inevitable argument that: "He should have won SC by the same margin Romney won NH. It was home turf."
OTOH, if Gingrich endorses Santorum now, it could change everything.
Driving the herd with the inevitability whip.
Florida is still a ways away. If a Not Romney can stop Romney in S.C. and get some coalescing then things can change.
Perception/momentum is the key - powerful stuff for the great unwashed.
Pick your poison, America.
And the President is going to be Obama.
rbm, didn’t you know these polls are scientific? sarc
dengar, I have to shut down the computer for a few weeks at a time to maintain any sanity.
Rasmussen is a Faux News Poll, nothing more. Anyone that believe the liberal Morman has doubled up on Gingrich in Florida also believes in the tooth fairy.
Most people who call themselves Republican are simply not conservative really.
They just won’t yet accept full blown socialism or a total lack of moral compass.
And they are very whimsical.
yet FOX had another poll early this morning showing RINO just winning by a couple with Newt and Rick right behind him and Perry with 5%
what do people change their minds on mass in an hour, well according to FOX they must do.
Perry has got to step aside and maybe Newt can step out and give Rick a go and bring the votes together to take Romney out
If Newt and Perry wants to hurt RINO then drop out, and give the money and votes to rick and maybe Rick would let Newt be VP
If they stay in due to ago then WE ALL LOSE
Unfortunately, a narrow win by Gingrich in South Carolina probably isn't going to change this by much . . . which is why I think Rick Santorum still remains the best alternative. If Santorum endorses Gingrich now, it probably would give Gingrich a small bump in SC, but not enough of a win to counter the inevitable argument that: "He should have won SC by the same margin Romney won NH. It was home turf." OTOH, if Gingrich endorses Santorum now, it could change everything.This is why it's going to be near impossible to stop Romney.
You beat me to it. He seems to be wasting his and others time right now
Your nuts. A Georgia boy has a better shot in the sound than an Penn. boy. Newt is very popular in the south my friend.
Santorum is fading fast in SC...
Down to 14% after his no go Iowa bump.
Santorum supporters are going to have to sift off to Gingrich.
If Romney wins in SC, it will be over and Romney wins...gets beat by Obama, likely lose the House.
yep...that about sums it up
not a peep about Romney’s onslaught of Newt in Iowa but boy do they circle the wagons when Newt struck back
you can add NRO and WSJ in there too
Romney’s biggest cheerleaders were FOX
baring something salacious it’s over
the media and GOP talkitry have framed Newt’s attack on Mitt as wrong and mean and have killed the intended effect
what a joke
a seething 30 percent of this nation seriously pissed off and no leader...we thought we had one but she slept through it
"It is not over yet. The "Not Romney" candidates can come up with 39%. Romney only has 41% so he is still within striking distance if (BIG IF) two of the three get out after South Carolina..."
...A unification announcement among the three conservative candidates would also go a long way towards breaking Romney's momentum. Of course that involves the candidates acting like team players and not spoiled brats. And they haven't been displaying much teamwork as of late..."
Yep. But when that happens (the sooner the better, IMO), it also means that we will all have to act like team players to stop Romney, and accept one Conservative, even though his record won't be perfect. Of the two highest polling candidates, Santorum and Gingrich, I'm sure we all favor either or the other (but would be 100% behind either one in the end).
But that day is going to come- and there will likely be a lot of hurt feelings. We should all be prepared for it- because the long-term goal of winning with a Conservative, and saving this country, is ultimately what matters.
Yes, it could change everything. Romney goes from almost unstopable to completely unstopable. You Rick S. guys just don’t get it, HE CAN NOT BEAT ROMNEY MUST LESS OBAMA. Please stop splitting the vote.
When your own party is working against you, the choices become pretty limited.
So you think Dean or Edwards would have done better against W in 2004? Seriously?
Say this sentence to yourself: "The key for the Democrat Party is to nominate as much of a TRUE LIBERAL as possible, and not worry about "electability."
That will probably sound pretty silly.
Now substitute "Republican" for "Democrat" and "CONSERVATIVE" for "LIBERAL."
South Carolina is a better reflection on the state of things. This is a close race with a slight edge to Romney, who has been getting the benefit of early delegate wins.
In Florida, Mitt has been running ads the last week...a lot of ads, and a pretty good one at that. If Gingrich wins SC, FL will even out, and it will be close...potentially going either way.
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